Member Info for Onbeyondzebra

I agree with many of the sentiments above.

1. this is an AIM listed oiler. You have to accept that you might be 20%-40% down at some point. It's this risk that makes it's likewise possible for your to double or treble your investment - which I honestly believe will happen here.

2. While there are no sure things on AIM, you can be pretty sure that this will go back up AT LEAST 30% in exactly 16 days. That being the case, I will be adding to my holding here at these prices. For my situation, that's pretty unusual because I accumulated when it was stuck at 6.5p for months and months, and my last top up (though not nearly enough) was at 4.7p. So, in effect, by buying now I would be 'averaging up' not down. That said, I could never resist a fast 30% in and out.

My best advice, repeat Warren Buffett's famous statement to yourself every morning when you wake up: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."

1. As a concept, you can't be 'shorted to death', because if the shorters kill the golden goose they too lose all their investment. Just watch The Big Short, it explains what happens if you hold a short too long.

2. For the same reason that this makes it a bad 'trading' investment for ATG, it also makes it a bad share to short:
- low volume
- big spread

3. I forget the rules of shorting on AIM, but at very least it has to be wholly transparent - and there doesn't seem to be any major shorting on IRR.

In effect, shorters need buyers too - which is why Tesla is a shorter's dream - and IRR, right now, no a great prospect. Institutions that short know this and are very cautious how they invest their money.

I think the more pertinent question is that, with so many shares locked in, how can the market cap fluctuate this widely (as represented by the SP the last couple of weeks). PI's don't really hold enough to shift the MC by 30% without a massive sell-off. I get the whole 'the MM's need to make the market' (i.e. lower/raise it to resistance points) but this should be negligible in the grand scheme of things, as the SP and MC need to be roughly in line.

My best guess is that the last placing has somehow 'swamped' the market with shares (relative to buyers) and resistance points are therefore being tested by MMs - in the way ATG is reporting. But, surely, there is now a disparity with the MC - which will in due course find a point of equilibrium. At the end of the day though, the 'capitalisation' of the company is quantifiable, and the SP is just as easily manipulated by the major stakeholders who don't want their investment to disappear into a puff of smoke.

In short (no pun intended), I find the SP movement interesting but not particularly worrying. That said, by all means, if you can top-up/buy-in this week, by all means do. I will, but for the simple reason that this SP seems obscenely low.

There was talk of smart money vs not so smart money a couple days ago. Funny, only the latter is doing the profit taking at this early stage.

No one is touching on ATG's rather ludicrous statement: buying into IRR 'to trade'.

By every possible calculous, this is probably one of the worst trading shares on AIM.

1. (and most importantly) there is - and always has been - comparatively very little volume

2. when it does rise, the spread doesn't make it cost effective to sell out

It is, however, a textbook definition a long term investment:

1. It has assets that far outstrip its market cap

2. It has a highly qualified and heavily invested BOD

I always respected your financial efforts (if not knowledge) ATG, but in this instance you should have gone for GGP. It fluctuates madly (by 40%) every two months, and is the ideal 'trading' miner. Why didn't you? Oh, because, unlike IRR, it's a speculation with absolutely nothing underpinning it. I think you need to reflect a bit on what you want... because it's hard to find a good commodities trading stock with solid fundamentals on AIM. In your own best interest, if you're out you should cut the cord and move on. With the tight shares in issue, all you're going to end being is a speedbump in the rise when this does rerate, while not fully benefiting from the rise that's due.

The idiom "shoot the messenger" suggests that you are only passing on a message and aren't the one who came up with it.

Not sure that's the case here...

Its very simple: it’s dropping because the price of oil is down by between 4-7% (one more thing we can thank Trump for). Every oiler in the world is down by 2-4%, except nuog that is, which doesn’t seem to have much to do with oil despite its name.

Absolutely no idea how the market will respond. I first thought it wouldn’t like it being accepted, but now think a no vote would be seen as catestrophic for the BOD. Whichever way it goes, it’s all much ado and the SP should correct in a day or two.

Oh God, willowpillow... you're not intending on moving your investment over here from UKOG are you? Firstly, remember, you should never sell on a dip (trust that UKOG will get back up to 2p... at very least in 12-24 months when the OGA sends them an important bit of paper). Secondly, after spending the last month boring us all silly with your UKOG propaganda (and promising us that a retrace to 9 p was imminent) you don't exactly have a lot of credibility. Thirdly, I like ANGS as much as the next guy, but it won't flow 2500+ bpd because... well, it just won't.

dsmith57 -

Great idea... let's not discuss this further.

Goodbye!

dsmith57

1. Take this question to the UKOG board. From what I see it doesn't involve ANGS.

2. From what I gather you've accused Alan of not responding to your question to protect UKOG (a company we can all confidently assume he is not invested in from his posting history)

3. In terms of your 'question', I think we can also assume that UKOG only "dribbling a few barrels" from HH at the end of the flow test would safely constitute changes in circumstances that are likely to affect the SP and, therefore, must legally be disclosed via an RNS. So, either you're suggesting that the UKOG board is committing fraud and risking jail-time, or your question is a non-starter.

Seem to remember Alan also making the point that two tankers a day wouldnt blow anyone’s socks off...

"to seek Shareholders' approval of the Resolutions granting the Directors new authorities to enable them to complete the Placing and grant the Options.... Accordingly, the Company is seeking the approval of Shareholders to the Resolutions which are to be put to the General Meeting of the Company to be held at the offices of Fladgate LLP at 16 Great Queen Street, London, WC2B 5DG at 11:00 a.m. on 21 November 2018."

So, what are you saying? The board is forward selling shares that they don't yet have permission from shareholders to release?

ANGS puts forward a strong enough investment case as is. There's no need for PI's to make up blatantly false **** that will inevitably disappoint new investors that don't know any better.

Saying it over and over doesn’t make it true. In fact, it just just convinces us to throw you in the filter-bin with all the other trolls and ukog dreamers. What people like you don’t get is that everyone on this site is wishing this drops to 9 p, so that we can fill all of our stockings (and all take part in the mates-rate).

Superowl... I don’t think that’s what Tucky’s accusing you of. I think he’s saying that’s it’s pretty unlikely that someone comes out of the woodwork hoping to get some pretty basic knowledge of a company he’s supposedly ‘significantly’ invested in (to the tune of ‘six figures’). He’s also pointing out that your questions don’t appear innocent, but seem a rather lame attempt at sowing seeds of doubt into new holders who don’t know any better...

For my part, I was completely convinced by your legitimacy when you described DL’s chinos... Only a true Angus man can spot that kind of fine embroidery on an Aussie’s trousers.

I admit the SP movement is disappointing - though perhaps not odd for AIM where most PIs are focused on the next 72 hours. That said, I'm now sleeping very well at night with my investment here, and will be adding to it over the coming weeks. The simple fact is that within next 12 to 18 months ANGS will be turning a profit per annum that is roughly in line with its current MCAP. PIs should be asking themselves if they should have bought HUR this time last year at 24 p instead of chasing rainbows and, if so, why aren't they loading up on ANGS at these prices. I for one am happy to sit back and watch what happens to the SP as Brockam and then Balcombe come online, and ANGS becomes a bonafide producer.

Don’t know about that... but am happy to buy more at this price. Time will tell if it’s the right decision. ;)

Shallwe... I'll have a stab at answering your question - assuming it is sincere.

There is always a more or less fixed number of investors that are tracking the Weald oilers. Many of these investors tend to move parts of their holdings (or all of their holdings) from company to company depending on what RNS is to be expected. I wouldn't call this day-trading, as they are looking for bigger rises than often occur in one day. This is natural as, at the end of the day, they are just trying to use their knowledge of upcoming events to end up with more shares in both companies. Two weeks ago, I imagine a lot of investors pillaged their UKOG holding to buy ANGS because they figured 7.5 p was low as we were getting closer to the SCC decision on the 8th - and UKOG had nothing on the boil. I for instance, sold all my UKOG shares to buy ANGS. For many however, that money is earmarked for UKOG and they plan on putting it back in UKOG to take advantage of the SP rise that will come with the kimmeridge flow testing in a month or so. What you saw on Friday was just some LT investors being convinced by UKOG's RNS to pile back in.

What I find interesting is that the market cap ratio between the two companies eventually balances out. When UKOG jumped to 2.5p (100mil + mcap) and ANGS was at 4.5, you knew something had to give because ANGS' market cap at that time (13 mil) was much too low comparative to UKOG. ANGS has subsequently shot up, so that the circa 1/3 ANGS-UKOG mcap ratio is again maintained. What I'm getting at is that the two companies do go up together... just not on the same day/week.

If you want to talk about whether ANGS should have a third of UKOG's mcap, that's another discussion. In my opinion investors still haven't absorbed the significance of ANGS' acreage increase in the Weald that came from their Balcombe purchase. At the same time, UKOG's inflated mcap is also a consequence of the national exposure they get - though of course they also suffer the consequence of such exposure (environmental protests, law suits, false stories about causing earthquakes etc.).

Looks like some more trolls for the filter bin

Fair enough:
"Angus Energy will conduct an approved 7 day well test on the horizontal well at Balcombe before the end of the Q3/18."

So by Sept. 30th.

I hate to disagree with you Alan but that's a reach.

On Feb. 14th Vonk said that the two wells should be flowed 'before the summer'... not before the end of the summer. If I owed you money in February and told you "I promise I'll pay it back before the summer" and come August I said, "what's the problem, I still have until the 31st", I'm sure you wouldn't be well pleased. The timelines slipped (probably because of the SCC)... I think that we should be able to agree on.