Member Info for Onbeyondzebra

Ocelot

1. Thanks…typo (also had another typo in my last sentence if you want to discuss that one)

2. Yup, for a buyer you need a seller so exactly the same thing

3. Yup… exactly what I said, you just explained it on a more granular level (i.e. where their ‘cut’ comes from). Thanks!

Singhie:

I was providing short-term predictions. Your SP predictions start in November. I’d be curious to see what you have over the summer…

I’ll answer your question, but I do think you, and anyone who’s wondering the same thing, should read/listen to a book/audiobook (like “The Naked Trader”) that explains how the market works and the factors that impact the share-price (SP) of your investment.

The answer to your question is as simple as supply and demand. Despite what the conspiracy theorists here would have you believe, the job of market managers (MMs) is simply to pair buyers and sellers and set the SP to stimulate trades (for which they get a cut). If all buy trades are easily filled, but sell trades aren’t, then the SP drops incrementally until it finds a level of equilibrium between supply and demand. If, as will happen at the end of June/start of July, 3% of the total float in the company is dumped into the market over a short period of time, then the MMs will drop the price to either 1. the point where the punters are happy to buy en masse or 2. the point where the major divestor (i.e Forrest) is no longer happy to sell. That’s why I said the big question everyone should be asking is: what is the lowest Forrest is willing to accept for his shares (my guess is around 1.40, but really who knows).

In terms of this impacting a share rise, you just saw this scenario play out the week it reached the high of 1.90s. During these days Forrest was dumping millions upon millions of shares into the rise. If he had not done that, the demand would have far outstripped the supply and the SP would have skyrocketed (possibly to somewhere around it’s previous yr high of 2.8). It, furthermore, would have maintained this level rather than immediately falling back.The other point you make about the shares in issue not changing… well the shares in issue will also go up substantially over the summer months due to the warrants that are coming into effect. As I said, expect a bumpy ride with the SP over the summer, and be ready to average down if you’re not willing to sell up and buy in cheaper later on. The one thing I’m learned from investing and trading in ANGS the last 5 years, is that you’ll always have another opportunity to buy in cheap.

So I’ve been pretty good with my predictions the last few weeks (even nailing Push2 selling heavily into the last rise) so, if anyone is interested, this is how I see it: As much as many don’t want to hear it, he wasn’t wrong about Forrest waiting in the wings till the end of June to sell his next tranche (circa 3% of the total shares in issue). Your guess is as good as mine what Forrest is willing to sell at (anything above 1.40? 1.30?, 1.20?), but he all but guarantees the SP will stay at or below that arbitrary threshold for the summer, at least, and that’s not taking into account the incoming warrants, and the reduced volume. I therefore see the SP deflating, or being kept depressed (however you want to see it…they amount to the same thing), until after the summer. I also think, more immediately, the chasing rainbows demographic of AIM investor will become disillusioned fast when they see that the increase in production numbers over the coming weeks doesn’t immediately impact the SP. In short, we’re about to see a glut of shares flooding the market and no news that is likely to keep the attention of the AIM crowd. (Btw, if there was ever a time for ANGS to leave AIM and join the main market it is now for exactly these reasons.) As for me, if I have the opportunity, I will start accumulating again in the low 1.30s - because I do like the prospects over the next 24 months - though I suspect I might be underwater shortly after and will be following it down. My advice for those holding is the same as for the last two spikes: be smart and sell when the opportunity is there and hold some powder dry to average down when you have the chance. ANGS is a trader’s dream, meaning there is money to be made. Just ask Push2 who, possible manipulation aside, played a blinder with his buys and sells. For those that prefer to hold and wait: while that’s never a terribly clever strategy with AIM, ANGS is now a compelling medium term play - I suspect giving the management their 3 p options sometime in 2024 - so you should come out ok too as long as you have an exit strategy. Anyone else have a short-term prediction?

I just like any grammar point that uses strippers, really. A colon could/should also be used if example two is what you are going for. Back to the ANGS roadshow…

Re. Oxford comma: Largely agree, though I do like the cartoon arguing its case: https://www.verbicidemagazine.com/2011/09/20/strippers-jfk-and-stalin-illustrate-why-you-should-use-the-serial-comma/

Agreed with Whistler and HITS, nothing wrong with the RNS. Doesn’t in the least surprise me it didn’t finish higher though. As I said, I’ve seen enough big news days that finish in the red. It’s almost inevitable with the Pushes of the the world (and I count myself one) selling off a 1/4 of their holding into the rise to bank the (roughly) 22% profits from the lows of Friday morning. As Push said, got to be fast before the SP comes back to earth. For those that get spiked, that’s the nature of the beast. You should have had the foresight to buy Friday, or be mates with GL and know what’s coming. Also, in this case, nothing has really changed. The news just reiterated what the market was already told (badly) a couple weeks ago. The fundamentals stay the same: Great medium term play if ANGS doesn’t **** it up (in terms of what they do with the incomings) - and of course once PF finishes selling up (starts again in 7 weeks) and the summer warrants are cleared. For me it’s a trading stock until all of these are out of the way. There will be good opportunities to buy in low and to sell high. Today was just another good trading day at camp Angus.

HL published a pretty balanced appraisal following the results (and before the last contract): https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/202304/petrofac-losses-worse-than-expected-but-bid-pipeline-building

Conclusions: Some risk but big upside for investors and an attractive price to sale ratio. Really like the current price and prospects. I think we should have a good couple week as shorts realise there’s nowhere to go but up - which should creat a steep buying cycle.

Why do you say that Baits? Purely on the quality of the assets, or because you're 100% sure the RNS is coming in the next 7 days? Because, if not, by next Friday, the SP is likely well below 1.20... in which case it's a good trade. Then there's the elephant in the room: what if the RNS that everyone's waiting for doesn't move the needle much (because, after all, it is just confirming what has already been published to market). More times than I can remember the RNS that everyone wanted landed, and it was just the sounding bell to sell, and the SP actually ended in the red that day. With Forrest ready to sell up another not insignificant chunk of the company in June and further significant dilution of the summer, I really don't see a 1.39 sell as a bad trade. (Perhaps you can tell, but I'm re-evaluating my re-entry target price for all the reasons listed above.)

UKheaven: well put. That's all I've been trying to get across. Again, mainly by accident, ANGS have some great assets (and I include Balcombe in that). This means that there is money to be made here. But it's important that new investors come in with their eyes open. The way the BOD runs things, the PIs need to be on their toes. There are some holding and waiting AIM plays with reliable, honest directors (Atlantic Lithium for instance), but where's the fun in that?

… do what they say.

No. Most companies respond to it out of good practice, but there’s no obligation. Also, this is an AIM listed company, so the SP drop is primarily a result of the demographic of investor (one’s with short attention span that move on to chase the next rainbow). Back in the day, it was routine for ANGS and UKOG to drop 20% a day and then go back up, because investors were flocking from one Weald Oiler to the next trying to catch the rises. You can’t expect companies to respond when the investors are the ones causing the volatility. I suspect this may be the case here. ANGS miss their timelines as a matter of course (I’d be surprised if they didn’t). In which case, it’s now the PIs that are dropping the SP by not being forever patient. Effectively, the impatient PIs are crystallising their loss, and then transferring their hard earned to someone like Push (or me) who will buy on the dip and sell when the share is in vogue again. If you have the money, it’s much better practice to average down than to sell up during the lull periods. Even better practice is to avoid AIM and invest in reputable companies that do what they saw.

We saw the same thing with Vonk. He was able to sell his entire (significant) holding at highs two days before the SP crashed. Everyone was wondering why he would do that right before Brockham was hailed a success. And we all know how that turned out. I know it’s a different situation (e.g. accidental director not as integrated in the management team) but we’ve always known ANGS is a leaky ship and some seem to know what’s going to happen and everyone else is in the dark. I didn’t double guess selling out at the last highs because I knew I was in good (or rather unscrupulous) company.

Firstly, I do think this will go up (quite significantly) at some point, and that the medium term prospects look good - so no getting your knickers in a twist. I'm just interested in short short-term price targets for those wanting to top up or re-enter the fray. I had it marked down at 1.35 when I sold up two weeks ago. Of course, in the unlikely event of no RNS, for say a month, I think it would drift to 1.15, but can't see it going below that unless there's negative/delay/placing news. For my part, I think I'll start accumulating when it breaks into the 1.30s and follow it down, but curious what everyone else's plan is. (HITS: you're good with numbers and know this share inside out, what's your short-term prediction?)

Balanceddriver = Balancedviewer

Didn’t remember the name… as I said: filtered. Can say my experience on the board is much more enjoyable without the little midges buzzing around. Especially those that confuse being a d i c k with being intelligent.

Historically with ANGS, those settle the nerve RNSs never had the desired effect. If they said there would be a 3 week delay, then the price would drop to .90 for a couple weeks and then start ramping up again. For those new to the ANGS game, thinks of this share as a balloon with a slow leak that intermittently gets topped up. I advised at 1.95 and 1.75 to dip out and wait for a more attractive re-entry position but was shot down. Particularly, (un)balanceddriver made it clear I had no useful advice to offer. Maybe he can reflect on the fact that taking my advice would have meant he could have rebought his entire holding at 70 cents on the dollar today (or increased his holding by 30% for the price of two trades). Seeing as I transferred my holding into a depressed Barclays on that day, I could now buy back my shares for half the price. I think some investors need to talk less and think more. Note: BD, you’re filtered so no point replying

KrayzKat

Very cool post, and well reasoned. I was thinking the same thing (re. Private Sale) but wasn’t willing to do the leg work. :P

Singhie

I’ve seen your pricing model and think your predicted MCap more or less accurately represent the value of the assets/income. The one thing that I’ve found on LSE is that those two things aren’t necessarily aligned. Look at Royal Mail, if you consider their land assets, the MCap should be about 10x higher. This disparity is even more evident on AIM. On one hand, I see why you want connection news, but I don’t think it matters much in the long run. The ST will be connected (soon presumably), and that income will be coming in. It might lead to movement in the SP, which may or may not hold. The key is confidence and investors knowing the plan for the income. That’s the really interesting RNS (which we probably will never get). Until the market knows ANGS intention in terms of its new found capital, you probably won’t get any major investors. This leads to the big question, and I’d be interested in your views. Everyone would naturally want dividends to be announced (as you say, within 24 months). As discussed above, this would guarantee that income and MCap becomes aligned, and most investors could leave having multi-bagged. But Amazon has never paid a dividend for a reason. Presumably ANGS should be a growth company, and re-invest its financial muscle into new assets. But do you trust the BOD to spend money wisely (they don’t have a great track-record in this regard). These are the questions that are bouncing around in the heads of serious investors with deep pockets. I’m not sure we’ll get the re-rate that you are predicting for 2023-2024 until this has been clarified.

Singhie

I’m not an O&G guy, but on this I do have expertise. I think your analysis is good from a theoretical standpoint, but that’s not to say that it will work out this way in the real world. Predictions are just, that: predictions. And they should help inform your investment choices. The one thing no one here wants to talk about here is that AIM is primarily driven by sentiment, not technicals. Which share is in vogue today; which narrative sounds compelling? If ANGS went up to 20p, almost none of the current investors would still be on board; 95% would have sold out throughout the rise. Furthermore, how many aim stocks pay dividends? Not many, but that’s the great regulator. If/Once ANGS starts paying dividends, then the share price can no longer be suppressed. Let’s say ANGS makes a profit of £40 mil in 2026, and passes half of that on to investors through a dividend. At the present market cap that would the dividend yield somewhere around 33%. Investors would flock in, until the yield was around 5-8%, the market cap and SP would go up accordingly (circa 200%). There is great scepticism around ANGS because of their past conduct, so that negative market sentiment is hard to shift. You might get SP spikes through ANGS again being the share of the minute (e.g. Sept 5th 2022), but the most likely route to credibility - and the share price based on incomings/outgoings that you are predicting - is probably through the announcement of dividends. If they don’t announce dividends, then your predictions will likely never be realised… though that doesn’t mean you were wrong.

1. I think your data interpretation looks good
2. You hypothesis is not viable. The job of MMs is to pair buyers and sellers. They have better things to do then accumulate huge amounts of shares in volatile AIM companies and expose themselves to risk.

Non-autocorrect version: As I said, the most likely outcome is a slow drift downwards over the coming weeks. There’s a lot of selling pressure (Forrest et al., and typical AIM investors with a short attention span) and no ‘new’ news in the pipeline to really move the needle. Those pinning their hopes on the ST connection to the grid, while transformational for the company, it probably won’t bring too many new investors on board. ANGS has become a compelling medium term play. For those that are out, or thinking of being out, its just to decide what an advantageous re-entry point is, and wait for it. For those that are in, expect some short term pain - my guess is a drift down to between 1.20-1.40 - but you should get your rewards over the next 12 months. The lesson is to be sceptical of any AIM company that prints shares for fun. Thankfully, ANGS seems to be past that phase…