Member Info for Olpps

@panda I think you're talking about Putin comparing his invasion of Ukraine to Russia's historical war with Sweden right? He's not proposing going to with Sweden now, just to be clear.

Bb and easywynns, I stand corrected then. Was more summarising the general tone of things going largely back to normal, and that trade doesn't stop completely even though you disapprove of an action in the moment. I got it wrong summarising that though, my bad. Thanks for the correction.

I do wish people would stop acting like its so obvious and people must be "delusional" to disagree. Both sides on this bb sound obnoxious but make sound arguments:
Russia annexed crimea, no lasting sanctions, invaded Georgia, no lasting sanctions, 85% of the world is currently not involved in sanctions and those that are are hurting financially too, ethics hasn't stopped trade with Saudi Arabia, China or African despots. Economics must win: sensible.

BUT this is different because so close to EU border, NATO arming Ukraine this time, cancel culture means private companies aren't associating with Russia for fear of reputational damage regardless of sanctions, economic damage could also be from covid or China it's hard to be sure, Russia must lose as a deterrent to others, trust in Russia is gone. Politics and military deterrant must win: sensible.

But the reality will be shaped by how these real points weigh against each other. Noone here knows how that will play out, but claims of generations of distrust of russians (xenophobia never great) or of the west forcing Ukraine to take a deal now so they can get back to buying Russian oil, are equally extrapolation as if this is all one sided.

We're invested because, fundamentally, this u sanctioned company is profitable. If poly keeps making gold and sells it to China, or Africa, or India, or the west, the divis will return, the price will rise. How high? Dunno. But anyone expecting either peace today or a never ending back turning by the whole world on Russia, isn't being realistic. The truth, as often is the case, will lay somewhere in between.

China is arguably commuting genocide, Apple installed "suicide nets" at their factories to catch people jumping off roof because working conditions were so poor workers were killing themselves, GAP has been linked to child labour factories and Tobacco companies were caught fabricating data and hiding the truth that their products cause cancer. Yet none of these saw a dry up in investments or a stock price permenantly crippled. It might not be right, but stock price is linked to profits, not ethics. There can be as much bitterness as you like towards Russia, forevermore perhaps, but if Poly is paying a 30%+ divi when investment opens up demand will surge and the stock price will rise. Just need to wait for ear to be over so all companies doing business in Russia aren't tarred with the same brush and for more platforms to allow trading in it (trading 212 still won't let me buy so had to set up a barclays account on the side).

Not saying I don't care about the war, not saying that's the right thing to do, not saying Russia will be forgiven and "everything will be back to normal", just pointing out none of that will stop investors snapping up a 30% divi share when divi is reinstated. So don't put words in my mouth.

"Howitzers", check
"out of range of Russian artillery", check
"how long till the generals give in?", check

I make that a big-blue daily bingo. Not disagreeing with your points bb, just you post the same ones over and over it gets tiring for those trying look for new news or views on here. Nothing against you personally, but it's hard to soft through to find what most people are thinking between your and Fa's constant posts on the same talking points.

Errrr... JAB, can you not mention poly please: seems most inappropriate when people are letting of steam about geopolitics and their freedom of speech being under attack, thanks.

Ah roxy, again with straw manning me. I said nothing in my post about your right to speak, nor did I suggest you weren't allowed to post about the war. If you want to feel attacked then go right ahead, but again, I wasn't telling anyone what to do, just making a joke about how predictable this board is day in, day out.
And FA yes this is a discussion board, but just stating an opinion and then claiming it's a "FACT" isn't much of a discussion. As I've said before, I actually agree that the pressure you identify exist, but we differ in thinking it's so obviously predictable what happens as a result of that pressure. This board is primarily about investments. Of course the war is relevant to the stock price, but if I was a new investor I might be over confident investing when I keep reading "this will be over soon, FACT".

@jotom, thanks for being the first sane response. Here's hoping for peace in Ukraine, and peace and quiet between the camps on here!

No roxy, I'm not suggesting anyone take any position, nor expressing my own, I'm just pointing out the absolutely nothing will change in this war because of comments on this bulletin board, that arguing hear does nothing but waste our time as neither putin nor any other world leader is readi g this, and that the situation is not as predictable as anyone here claims. The fact that you read my summary of 2 positions and my conclusion that the situation isn't as simplistic as either states as "throwing in the towel" says more about your desire to argue here than it does about my views on war or diplomacy, which I haven't shared here yet at all.

FA+similar: "sanctions will ease soon as mass starvation because of the war will drive EU to pressure Ukraine to accept some land loss as Russian advance continues."
BB+similar: "Russia is the aggressor so only they can stop world starvation by withdrawing, as EU and ukraine will hold to their principles and never surrender. Besides, latest NATO weapons will lead to Russia being kicked out: have you SEEN that the howitzers out range Russian artillery?"

FA+similar: "The sanctions will be over soon as humanitarian need to save the starving third world will prevail and negotiations resume. Its so obvious!".
BB+similar:"Russian generals will turn on putin soon and war will end. Self-preservation will prevail for Russian troops, its so obvious!"

Reality: a complex interplay between politics and military aspirations plays out. Neither side has a decisive advantage, neither side happy with status quo or ready to back down. EU doesn't want starvation, but increases sanctions because also can't reward aggression at its borders. Russia wants sanctions lifted, but also can't be seen to deviate from narrative that Russia is good and NATO is bad or civil unrest could collapse putins regime. Generals won't just betray Putin for fear of reprisals on them and family. Nothing obvious, just have to see how events plan out.

There you go guys and gals, I've summed up the next 100 odd posts here for today, with more prophetic accuracy than either camp has shown so far. No need to read bulletin board today, go enjoy your lives!

Furion I think that's a great idea actually. Friends and I went to see matrix on big screen recently and have seen other classics at Prince Charles theatre: seeing your favourites on the big screen again is a price a lot of people would pay and the voting idea gives more engagement.

Exactly, it's ridiculous. Barclays spread atm is 255 sell, 271 buy: a 16p spread on a 260 share so 6%! Thieving...

Realise it may be too late, but on the off chance it isn't, could you ask if cine is persuing and out of court settlement with cineplex and if so then what figure are the board aiming for from their side?

Thanks again mountainous, blue and HNS

No extra questions from me atm, looks good so far, just want to say thanks for going and asking on our behalf!

For what it's worth KTP I've been in a similar situation before and made the (wrong for me in hindsight) decision to hold until I lost everything, and whilst I don't think that will be the case here(obviously or I wouldn't still be invested) I do get the dread it can make you feel. If you step away though, not to be rude, but I wouldn't pop back in here, or even check on cine again if I were you. You're making the right decision for your health in this moment, which is the right decision full stop. The stock price of cine now for you is immaterial, so just move on and stop thinking about it if you can.

Sorry to see you go but understand its gotta be your drscision for what's best for you. Thanks for all your contributions!

Still here and still hoping and waiting. Just got back from a family holiday where flight was delayed 5 hours, so got a little compensation which I'm tempted to invest here but also getting tired of the long wait and no news... Though that could be my fault for not checking in as often as I used to now I'm back at work, lol

You have the right to buy from whoever you want but Russian oil is only cheaper in money: there are other costs associated as this shows. Europe could have invested in nuclear (as France once did heavily), or renewables and been self sufficient. Or they could trade away some control over their energy supplies by buying primarily from others. In this option they had higher cash, less insecurity by buying from USA or lower cash and higher insecurity by buying from Russia. They gambled on later. I think that is big-blue's point, not that they had no right to do it but that the insecurity risk they accepted has now materialise.

Sorry to those who aren't interested, and I realise this is a stock market board and not a medical journal, but it frustrates me to see false information given on medically important issues. If you don't want to read what I post, scroll past: takes 2 seconds to scroll by. But if someone is making false and dangerous allegations (that vaccines increase risk of covid rather than reduce it), then I'm going to challenge that, by presenting the evidence for anyone interested.

4. Yellow card and VAERS data are not used as primary data but rather as a starting point to justify controlled studies into potential effects. The data is widely considered to be of too poor quality to draw conclusions from as the claims made under those systems are not checked or statistically adjusted for confounding factors. When follow up studies were done, and confounding factors accounted for, it was found that astra had a small increase in blood clotting risk ( less than 3 extra blood clot cases per million vaccinated individuals) and Pfizer less than this. I agree astra was probably slammed (mainly by EU) so that UK success story post Brexit was quashed, and a lot of people died as a result from not taking a very safe vaccine during a pandemic, however I think this was more about politics and ideology than money directly, and not relevant to USA much.
5. This is a gross misuse of data. Per 100k of population you will be more likely to have covid with vaccine than without because there are more people with vaccine than without in UK. Imagine 90% of people had vaccine, and further imagine (for mathematical simplicity) that vaccine gives 50% protection and everyone without vaccine gets covid (not realistic, just showing an extreme to illustrate). Per 100K population, 90K would have vaccine and 50% get covid (45K) whilst 10K have no vaccine and 100% get it (10K). We know (as we assumed in question) that vaccine halves chances of covid (50% is half of 100%) but if we just look at cases per 100k we see 45K vaccinated and only 10K unvaccinated, so assume vaccine quadruples the risk of covid ” versus unvaccinated per 100,000 people in the population.” This is why you shouldn’t use per population as the denominator, but instead the % of that group that get it. When you do this, you find that 37.4% of all deaths in unvaccinated individuals were covid related in first half of 2021, compared with 0.8% of all deaths in double vaxed (after 21 days) being due to covid. So complete course of vaccination reduces covid death rate by 37.4/0.8 = 46.75 times. Data from ONS study where they did the maths rather than plucking raw number: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021?msclkid=8384aee2b4fb11ec9ad820aa668ea6fb
6. As I said, not disputing this, but why does USA gov having profits from Moderna mean UK gov would want Moderna to win over Astra when Astra was UK success story?
7. Coronaviruses is a broad class of viruses and not specific to the Sars-Cov2 strain which causes “Covid-19”.
8. I am not saying you haven’t looked into this, I am questioning whether you i) lack the requisite background knowledge to do the statistical analysis properly, ii) want to see a conspiracy so badly you are unknowingly having confirmation bias and cherry picking data or iii) have taken my objections personally and gotten defensiv