Member Info for OliGarch

AS, the parcel sorting hubs and mail centres don't send mail directly to the public, they distribute parcels/letters between each other and then out to the 1200+ delivery offices where they are allocated to the appropriate delivery post person's walk. Some of these delivery offices are very small indeed.
Obviously, parcels are much bulkier than letters and it doesn't take long before the delivery office and subsequently the old Fiat Doblo is rammed to the gunnels

AS, the problem isn't the automated mail centres or hubs but the 1200+ delivery offices, some of which date back to Victorian times and were designed for letters.
The whole of the RM infrastructure needs to looked at if the business is looking to take the lion's share of the parcel market including delivery offices and it's ageing fleet which is on it's knees.

During 2020, my office took the initiative to remove some of the automation equipment, because letters are dead as any fule kno.
Anyway, moving forward to 2022 and those wretched mailing houses keep sending us this downstream access malarkey and in ever increasing quantities to boot.
Didn't they get the memo....lol

It's also not very helpful when the CEO insists on quoting the profits from the RM UK operation separately from the rest of the business?
Now call me an original cynic (but my heart's not in it...lol) but it feels as though the BoD are dragging out the pay process in order to try to drive the SP down, however I also believe that Simon Thompson is in at around the 400p mark? Then there's Kretinsky who could have got out at 600p and bought back twice as much?
Confused? Me too!

Redceo, you are correct with your statement "Paying a postal fee should ensure the item is delivered" and the person responsible for ensuring that happens is Simon Thompson.
Grant Shapps theory about hiring temporary staff to cover in the event of a strike, be it railways or postal is a busted flush. The unemployment rate is currently lower than pre-pandemic levels (currently 3.8%). Where I live, the local shops have had adverts out recruiting for staff since January without success, even our local GP surgery is unable to source another couple of GPs and nurses as there are no candidates, so where this secondary workforce will appear from is anyone's guess.

"Just the pay deal to be sorted!" It almost trips off the tounge like a throw away song lyric.
Usually in the third week of negotiations between the union and management, the ground troops would be hearing some rumours but so far.....nada.... nowt
This isn't a case of "no news is good news" so unless someone at BlackRock, Citadel and Marshall Wace have any inside information?......

The next message has nowt t'do with the RM SP.....
Peakybinder, my GP will only talk to her subjects over the phone and diagnoses by looking at photos taken via mobile phone and messaged across. Oh, and she only works 9 to 5 with a one hour lunch break. Nice work for just under £100kpa?
Indeed, pure greed but there's a national shortage of GPs so I guess that it's a supply and demand thing?

AngerSharkz, I haven't been privy to all of the CWU communications but I also haven't heard anyone from the CWU actually state that they are requesting a 10% pay deal either? In fact, the communications that I have seen seem to go out of their way to deliberately not mention a specific target, which is strange in itself.
I have also not seen anything from the CWU during this dispute about "smashing the company" although this was a soundbite from the Rico Back era, so perhaps someone who is clever with tech is rehashing old footage? Who knows?
The only targets/percentages mentioned so far have been from Ricky McAulay who is heading the RM side of the negotiations.

AngerSharkz, you need to realise that when it comes to purchasing business equipment, Royal Mail will always go for the cheapest option in the hope that our engineering department can retrospectively transform it into something that works for the operation. Most (if not all) of our machine barcode readers utilise Lockheed Martin software who RM have been tied into for the last twenty odd years. LM have screwed the contract down so tightly that any alterations or software changes/upgrades are extremely expensive. I know of one instance where RM purchased a trial machine from a French supplier only to scrap it after less than a year because it was going to be too expensive to upgrade. Of course the original project manager had moved onto another project once he realised that it wasn't going to work leaving someone else to carry the can.
In that respect, I'm pretty sure that Simon Thompson will not be presiding over the July 2033 AGM as he will have already realised that his position has become untenable.
All in my opinion of course.....

Casshy, thanks for your honesty.
Redceo, when is the AGM? Won't the dividend need to be agreed?

Casshy, "reckon a 10% rise between now and end of July" .
Do you have any evidence to support this?

Teslo, the chart pattern is looking similar to the May 2018 to June 2019 trend? If that is followed then there could be a way to go yet?
A cause for concern or a buying opportunity?

The opening positions on pay negotiations were unfortunately poles apart.
In February, the CWU asked RM management for something to match inflation. Although no specific figure was mentioned, the RPI was sitting at around 7-8% if memory serves me correctly.
In April, Ricky McAulay came back with a 1.5% conditional offer (which turned out to be worth about -8%). This was increased to 2% without conditions about ten days ago.

Redceo, as we are all aware, Amazon are a large global logistics business so there will be different rules for different countries.
To the best of my knowledge, GMB are the union of choice for UK Amazon employees.

Redceo, I'm not trying to be obtuse or argumentative, however, I do believe that there is some excellent material here worthy of analysis and debate even though you and I alone will not resolve any issues relating to RMG.
Let's cast our minds back to June 2021. The SP was sitting just shy of 600p, however by the end of September it had dropped to 485p and by the 6th of October it had dropped to 404p. I think that we are all agreed that this drop of 33% was not influenced in any way by the CWU. The CWU can also not be credited for the SP rise up to 510p before the end of November as I believe that this was down to the special dividend and share buyback scheme which has spectacularly failed the shareholders, at least in the short term and cost RMG £201m for 43,806,525 shares (approx 459p/share).
So now we are into December. Still no mention of pay negotiations from the CWU and the SP burbles along in the 520p range however come the end of January it has dropped to the 430p range following the payment of the special dividend but still nothing from the CWU.
As I stated earlier, the SP had fallen to 430p by Valentine's Day which is when the CWU sent Simon Thompson a request to commence negotiations. By the time Ricky McAulay engaged with the CWU at the beginning of April, the SP had fallen to 329p which isn't far from its current status.
Of course, it didn't help matters when the CEO virtually gifts the short sellers with a warning that next year's (2022/23) profits won't be as healthy?
I would suggest that if, and it's a very big IF, the financial institutions and short sellers were privy to the communication between the BoD and the CWU in mid February, then this must have been leaked from within, but just assuming this is correct (silly as it sounds) then it can only be claimed that the CWU is responsible for the drop from 430p to present levels? The drop from 600p to 430p is certainly someone else's work.

AngerSharkz, if my memory serves me correctly, the SP had a bit of a renaissance last time it was relegated to the FTSE 250 so perhaps this share is where it belongs?

Commonsense, it wasn't so long ago that one of the posters on this forum (I forget who) was telling us that the stock market isn't interested in a stock's history, only it's future and it's ability to make money?
Anyway, I'm not talking about the 2020/21 pay deal.... that's history....done and dusted..... I'm talking about the 2022 pay deal....this year's pay deal.
Redceo, as you are fully aware, the RM pay talks are usually an annual affair and according to agreement are scheduled for April. The reason behind this is that in the '80s and '90s it could take up to twenty months to reach agreement. There have been a couple of occasions where a two year deal has been done but that's rare.
The point of my post was to state that the share price was already dropping before anyone mentioned 2022 pay negotiations.
Redceo, if not through a union representing the employees, how would you propose that the business deals with future pay awards and which current body or institute would be best placed to perform this? Just asking....for a friend.....

With regard to the share price and employer/employee relations, I would also like to point out that the SP was 523p on the 4th of January 2022. It had fallen to 430p by Valentine's Day which is when the CWU sent Simon Thompson a request to commence negotiations. By the time Ricky McAulay engaged with the CWU at the beginning of April, the SP had fallen to 329p which isn't far from its current status.
I would therefore suggest that the current status of the RMG SP is largely unaffected by internal affairs and more effected by external influences?

Redceo, how would you propose that RM UK handles it's pay negotiations with 140,000 plus employees?
By the time that Ricky McAulay had got to employee number 139,999 it would be back to the beginning again.....lol
Also the pay structure would be even more chaotic...

Redceo, the employee's right to withdraw it's labour is not a decision that is taken lightly and should always be the last resort. Of course the outcome will always be a return to work.