Member Info for OliGarch

Are the proposed train strikes going to affect Simon's "mail rail"?
This was one of the reasons that RM stopped using the rail network back in the '80s.
Still, everything goes round in circles with RM.

AngerSharkz, "I think it is good that Royal Mail is committed to shareholder returns…..but on reflection I think the £400m was excessive"
Indeed, I believe that the shareholders should have received £200m but it's currently different to justify the share buyback scheme at £201m.
"I have reservations about GLS being spun off also. It’s a very short term solution to generate cash for shareholders"
Absolutely agree. Why sell off the cash cow unless that was their intention all along and some of the top management are thinking about jumping ship after the split?

I believe that UNITE pay out £70 per day however they have a massive membership and don't strike very often which is probably just as well.

Arsenal, I don't see the relevance of the CWU in relation to khards post? Surely this is a failure of senior management and/or customer account managers with regards to pricing and tracking and DOMs with regards to service reliability?
I would say that the CMA/Unite wouldn't agree?

khards, thank you for sharing your experience of Royal Mail. We don't often hear fro business owners on this forum.

Uncle _Doug "with the strike next Friday and Monday"????
Who is going out on strike?
Where did that nugget of information come from?

AngerSharkz, 'an inflexible cost base’ and ‘we haven’t managed the cost pressures fast enough’ sounds like poor management to me??
I think that you may well have hit the nail on the head?
As I posted last week, our senior management team must have realised that the gravy train wouldn't run forever but they have failed to create a financial buffer for when it eventually did.
If this was unintentional then it's very poor management and Mick Jeavons should be shown the door.
If it was intentional then both Thompson and Jeavons should go.
All IMHO.

JB, so you envisage that "GLS will take full control of our current UK parcels (with a revised USO) through the new hubs and dedicated parcel deliveries operating out of these hubs and more in the future?"
Okay, that's a take on the situation that I hadn't considered. If that were to be the case would you think that the delivery posties would be TUPED out? I'm feeling quite curious now.....

AngerSharkz, I can see both sides here. The obviously CWU want to use the RMG figure as that is what is floated on the stock market and if GLS were losing money instead then they may use the argument of separating the businesses as well? The BoD want to use separated figures and that really speaks volumes. I believe that the majority of the BoD have wanted to see GLS separated for a while (probably pre pandemic) and this now gives them a great foundation to realise this.
I would like to see more detailed data, perhaps on a weekly basis, unit by unit (including Parcelforce and fleet) to determine exactly who is losing money and more importantly how they are losing money. I know that it was recently announced that around 300 offices were in the process of upgrades or relocation as they were deemed no longer fit for purpose so that's going to cost?
On average throughout Q1, every unit is losing around £5.5k per week so I would assume that the recently appointed regional operations directors would have a handle on this?

AngerSharkz, "I think the CWU will continue to inflame their members with false information".
How do you know that?
I have spent an hour trawling through the RM communication app today in order to verify the information that the union is sending out to members and the CWU are using verbatim comments lifted directly from posts created by Simon Thompson and/or Jenny Hall.
As I posted earlier, the information from RM is generic and not particularly specific which is going to lead staff to read between the lines. Hopefully there will be some Q&A sessions from Thompson so that we will have more detailed information.
There was also a couple of posts relating to the daily fluctuations in profitability and how RM UK traditionally runs at a loss (for instance during the school holidays) but more than recoups this over other periods such as November and December. As a for instance, 32% of the annual letter box collection mail is processed during the three weeks leading up to Christmas. I'm not sure what the parcel data is but I would imagine that it's similar.
Obviously the Ukrainian war and cost of living crisis are additional headwinds but this will affect most businesses currently.

Arsenal, OFCON have already issued a statement last week outlining it's plans for RM UK and it's USO duties over the next five years. I am therefore drawn to the conclusion that the BoD aren't going to get any traction on a reduction anytime soon.
How much of a workforce reduction do you think that RM UK could sustain (and in what areas of it's operation) whilst still maintaining the USO?
Lastly, I'm still keep to know how the shareholders investment in RMG is keeping the business going as most of the IPO money went to Cameron and Cable's coalition government and Moya Greene spent what was left back in 2013.
By the way, before you ask about my posting habits, it's my lunch break now,

AngerSharkz, I'm expecting this to slowly rose above 300p up to Thursday however I think that on Friday may see the stock market's true valuation and then the shorters may swoop?
Some uncertainty coming up?

JB, the BoD have sent out flyers to all staff regarding what the business are offering but there is nothing too specific, no real detail so that an individual could work out exactly how these proposals will affect them and their families. Apparently we will be expected to work Sunday duties, initially working one in forty going down to one in four in a couple of years time.
The 2% "above and beyond 'bonus scheme is going to be based on "unit performance/budget". In my experience there are always a percentage of workers who see the bonus as exactly that. They won't do anything extra for it and if they receive anything from it then "that's a bonus". This is likely to lead to inter office conflict and will cause more problems than it's worth. Also there's an inherent mistrust of bonus schemes within the rank and file of RM UK. Remember the "colleague shares" fiasco?

Regarding the proposed changes to some of the Ts&C's, I have been speaking to some colleagues who have a scheduled attendance on Sundays and I didn't realise how lucrative it is. The sorting staff receive around £50 in Sunday premium rate and £24 for the machine operators for cleaning their machines. So that's £74 or £3700 per annum. This is on top of their wages.
Apparently, these are allowances that the business want to stop. Although these staff are a minority group in terms of overall staffing in fairly confident that they are not going to vote to lose this for a 1.5% pay increase.

Commonsense, " finger in the air it should make £250m".
When would you anticipate that to happen? Thompson says RM UK are losing hand over fist and to be honest I'm not seeing much change in the management style at local level.
One example is the the management team have been tasked with being more focused on certain aspects of the workforce. They are forever poring over and filling out charts on the wall. None of the staff are interested and the workforce have not been briefed so these charts are nothing more than Tracy Emin style scribbles on the wall.
As a safety rep, I was interested in the H&S chart but as I am nosey, I asked one of the managers about the "Productivity" chart. It turns out that they count all the items processed through the mail centre every week, whether sorted by machine or manually, divide this figure by the number of staff in attendance and come up with an "items sorted per hour" figure. Our office sorts letters by machine and parcels manually. Our sorting machines work at about 35,000 items per hour and hand sorting parcels is obviously a lot slower so about 2,500 items per hour. It's like comparing apples with underpants but that's where we are at. Oh and we paid an external consultancy about £6k a week for the best part of a year for these business insights.
So, -£92m...... I'm now surprised the figure is so low....

AngerSharkz, "Stockopedia currently forecasting group profit at £262m this year" and this will be GLS profit so I'm guessing that the only dividend payment will be courtesy of GLS?
It would probably now be better to separate RM UK from GLS as it is clear that even if the proposed changes for RM UK are accepted then they will still be in a precarious position when the current economic headwinds are taken into account?
The problem is that this is then going to escalate year on year so will require constant cutbacks in order to break even.. OFCON have made it clear that the USO is staying with RM UK and have now set stricter targets which is not going to make life easier.
Ultimately, RM UK are where they should have been in 2020 however they were handed a two year reprieve. The BoD failed to capitalise on this, take stock of the situation and plan ahead with some contingency so now we are well and truly rogered.

AngerSharkz, the unfortunate point is that I do believe you!
A part of the proposals from the BoD for pay negotiations going forward is the bonus scheme that will be worth 2% and makes up the "5.5%" offer, however it's a bonus scheme so not pensionable or guaranteed. This is most certainly going to be based on the profits that RM UK post next May. Now, if we already know that RM UK are at -£92m then nobody is going to vote for that.

AngerSharkz, so what you are saying is that even if the changes are agreed then there will be nothing left on the table for pay negotiations or indeed a dividend payment for next year.
On that basis the offer of a 2% "above and beyond bonus" isn't going to be a realistic achievement. I'm sorry but you're not selling this to me.

AngerSharkz, if RM UK post a loss of circa £350m in 2022/23 (plus potentially an extra £126m for the autumn dividend?) then we are are definitely in trouble.
Watching Thompson navigate his way through this mess is definitely going to be worth watching.
I predict a new reality TV show...... I'm a CEO, get me out of Herr....(it was going to be here but predictive text changed it)....lol

Ispy, the "£92m loss"refers to the comparison between 2021 Q1 and 2022 Q1. Clearly RM UK are not going to be posting a loss of £368m in 2022....or are they?
If a 15% drop in parcel volumes equates to a £1m a day drop in revenue then RM UK will definitely be up $hit creek if those volumes drop by 30% and bankrupt if the volumes drop to pre- pandemic levels, yet despite our highly paid and ever vigilant BoD, nobody saw the gravy train slowing down post pandemic. Okay, I will concede the Ukrainian conflict but this has affected almost every sector.
The need to drive parcel automation in the new hubs will almost certainly see another round of mail centre reviews?