Member Info for Olderwiser

Jeez Brian with all those numbers in your name, I though you would understand. Do you stop at 4

Merlin 2, 652 mmbo, or 78mmbo, see whole post if interested https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/55850210/single

Now they are moving onto a new target Merlin 2, for this 88e state
"Unrisked Net Entitlement to 88E, Prospective Oil Resources (MMstb)" with a mean estimate of 652 mmbo and a best estimate of 329 mmbo, all with a GCOS of 56% that ONE of the 3 zones of interest (N20,19 and 18) will succeed.

On first glance a reader could understandable believe a 56% chance on 652 mmbo is a risked (652 x 56%) 365 mmbo, quite a substantial play.

The reality is very different, using mean is misleading, substitute a more rational best estimate, ( best estimate is what the company identifies as the most likely outcome).
Now the numbers drop to 329 mmbo x 56%, so a risked number of 184 mmbo.

Continue to unpick the numbers further, 88e have given gCOS on the 3 zones that make up Merlin 2. We can calculate the percentage of the 652 mmbo in each zone by checking the data tables that show oil in place.
From that we can then apply the individual gCOS, reference the table below for detail, but the totals are the most revealing at ,
A risked mean of 155 mmbo

A RISKED BEST OF 78 mmbo (MOST LIKELY OUTCOME)
The difference is staggering, if an investor started with the belief that 88e had found 652 mmbo

https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/55713338/single

On stocktwits now
Stockbroker EurozHartleys has kicked off a $15 million to $20 million equity raising for ASX-listed oil and gas explorer 88Energy.

The broker was seeking buyers for 535 million to 717 million new shares at 2.8¢ a share, which would see it raise $15 million to $20 million.

Page 2 confirms a capital raise is underway, any sophisticated investor can log into freshequities.com to see the terms
http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20210831/02415149.pdf?uid=C97344C0B61D4BC6DF8CFE25C45AE70038300000A9CBEDCF12B3E540093D250091850000&ppv=

I am in full agreement Scot, having already emailed both the writer, and the editor of the Alaska Journal,( Elwood Brehmer, Andrew Jensen ) To point out the inaccuracies. Then followed up with Senator Murkowski on the potential political embarrassment in quoting such a misleading article.
Their responses, if any, will be enlightening.

Ford707 19:52 Examine your own style below, before criticising others. Two quotes of yours, at exact opposites to each other
In an ideal world we would discuss ideas, not people, lets try to be better

"The issues we had were pathetic way you talk to people m8"

"Back seat for me on this chat. Not expecting people to care but for one or two of those that I like, nothing has changed. Still holding long and still believe strongly. Just can’t be bothered to read all the crap on here as it seems to be a forum for people not invested, miserable and negative. Mostly people who hide behind the internet when in truth and in person they’re snivelling little weasels. I may not be as educated as some in this area or whatever areas you choose but one thing is for sure. In the real world when it’s stripped back to human vs human without you your little keyboards you’re pathetic little creatures.

Good luck to those that deserve it x"

Very different scenario last year, based on reinterpreted data from ugly well logs. This time Talitha is a gun barrel, so the data is pristine. No art required to make adjustments, as the data is already accurate.

What a great informative webinar, it did not bring, a great deal of significant new information, its purpose was to flesh out, what was already released/known.
To close the gap, between the unbelievable discovery, Talitha has been, and the markets belief in that discovery.
It will take time and rewarding effort, to grasp the multitude of corroborating lines of data, that confirm, this is what PANR claim it is.

The quick version, of what it all means is answered in this Q & A at 1:45: 07

Answer, Bob : So we have, eliminated the exploration risk, we have found hydrocarbons, and we are well beyond the exploration stage.

Question to Bob, What does that mean, in terms of, both risk of the project, but also confidence, or probability of success, if you like in terms of developing, or commercialising these fields ?

Answer, Bob : Well again it is, you know, we are at a much lower risk profile, than we were two years ago, and even, where we were from the fall, so we are at 60 70% confidence of success.

Pay particular attention to the question, it does not ask the chance of geological success, as that has already been covered “ we have eliminated the exploration risk....”
It specifically goes to probability of success in developing or commercialising, this is the stage after geological COS is 100%.

Blackadder 2708, It is you that is on the attack here, as per usual you say nothing to the question asked, just go on to feebly attempt to belittle the poster
My own experience with you copied below highlights your style.

I’m not an expert just a drilling engineer
I’m not a process engineer, trader, geologist, mud engineer, roughneck etc
I can just spot bull!!!
Ive no inside information
I see through the posts just before RNS is due

If your correct you are the ‘Messiah’ to your followers but if your wrong nothing!!!

As predicted by in my earlier posts, Merlin 1 results are poor, and the share prices has logically dropped in line with the poor result.
What am I to do, I had a chat with my dad, he said choose between, turn the other cheek, or forgive him he knows not what he does.
Still deciding ?

Good on you Moda, putting up both sides is commendable

Summary:

ConocoPhillips is NOT seeking 88 Energy LTD to bail themselves out.

88 Energy LTD is a stand alone company.

88 Energy LTD and shareholders do not need the extraneous hype of a hypothetical imaginary COP buy-out.

FORD707 I trust you can see the irony of your post, abusing posters from the safety of your own keyboard, whilst condemning key board warriors.
Try discussing the actual merits of the stock and provide some analysis, rather than character attacks on unnamed posters
Or just keep holding strongly to what you believe is long

Blackadder2708, if it suits you, by all means ignore my posts
Copied from 07/08/21 9:16, price 2.48
At this stage I am convinced the results from the Merlin well are going to be poor. With only 7 of 48 cores showing any hydrocarbons it looks patchy at best, As a comparator PANR, next door to Icewine show all cores with hydrocarbons. A significant find is needed to make Peregrine commercial, and with two of the 3 known zones being water saturated. The remaining N14 and new zones will need to be large to make up the known prospective losses at N18 and 20
Beyond the physical, it beggars belief that these results are still pending 18 weeks after target depth. Again compare to 88es Charlie 1 campaign, a discovery declared in 1 week, and petrophysical data showing, pay, porosity, saturation, in 3 weeks
Also of note 88e have the preliminary VAS data but have not chosen to share. VAS data gives a clear and independent third party view.
Deeply disturbing optics do not necessarily mean failure, but I have to ask why do it this way if they have a good result in hand.
Straight up is what investors are due, this looks otherwise.
Before you attack the messenger, honestly ask yourself, why these results are so slow, and so spun to the positive on the few samples that have oil signatures. Why not release the net pay instead.
From my extensive involvement with 88e over the years, a clear warning sign, of impending poor results, is a focus shift to the new shiny thing.
When Charlie 1 came up short, XCD popped up
When Icewine 2 came up short, conventional popped up
88e is now clearly polishing up Umiat, might even work, just like all the rest

rodrod 1
at 0813 you post this
Despite wannabee oil experts giving their opinion on the judgement, none of us have even read the judges considered decision. The State of Alaska and Conoco will have seen the full written rationale. Only they can determine the grounds for appeal and likely success rate. Meanwhile, Icewine remains attractive in any event.

at 1135 you are given the full judgement
at 1239 you respond, obviously without reading the judgement provided
olderwiser 11.35

Copied section and your thoughts are not in any way the same as having the privilege to consider the whole of the judgement. Commentators are just that, unless they have seen and evaluated the complete document.

Good luck to you at Pantheon though.
Now you are complaining posters take issue with your share choice, not true at all choose whatever path suits you.
I take issue with posters, that seek to deny debate that may inform others.
Consider this, if a forum member had weighed opinion, and acted to sell based on the cautions opined, by those labelled as shorters and manipulators, acting in their own interests.
They would now be much wealthier

rodrod1
Did you use the link I provided, it is the WHOLE judgement, did you consider it, or are the blinkers in the way

RodRod1 08.13
The copied section of the decision is the most contentious, as it raises the standards the BLM must uphold. For federal lands development, CO2 emissions at point of use, are now a factor.
State lands held by 88e (icewine) are not directly affected, Peregrine is (NPRA) federal land, so may be affected beyond the Conoco potential link.

https://www.alaskapublic.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/83a00909-3dfa-4f92-8072-8f8d3543c72c.pdf
In conclusion, the Court finds that Liberty controls here. The Willow EIS
“‘should have either given a quantitative estimate of the downstream greenhouse
gas emissions’ that will result from consuming oil abroad, or ‘explained more
specifically why it could not have done so,’ and provided a more thorough
discussion of how foreign oil consumption might change the carbon dioxide
equivalents analysis.”143
Because BLM failed to do so, the agency’s “alternatives
analysis in the EIS was arbitrary and capricious.”144

Project Peregrine is on NPRA (federal) land, as is the Willow project.
Land that is on Alaska state lands like Icewine may gain advantage

Breaking news on Conoco appeal re Willow development.
https://www.adn.com/business-econom...ermits-for-conocophillips-willow-oil-project/

There has never been an established link to 88e, but some speculation has linked the two as a positive, in that Willow could providing an outlet for Peregrine and Umiat.
Which in turn would make the projects attractive to Conoco

In a takeover, 88e is made an offer for all of its shares, if the deal goes ahead, shareholders receive this amount, in proportion to the shares (% of company) they hold.
IMO this is a long way off, 88es plan has always been to prove up a play, then sell the play

Hi Waynesplash, In short, they have not found billions of barrels, they have found clues to where millions of barrels may lie.
Prospective has not been found, you need to drill and test prospective to advance it to contingent, this did not happen at Merlin 1
The hope was Merlin 1 would be the wildcat strike that can produce, it is not, as can be evidenced by the companies decision against returning to Merlin 1 for flow testing.
Instead the whole process restarts at a new location Merlin 2, risk has been lowered by data from Merlin 1, but is still substantial.
The best geological COS is now N18 at 28%. Should this overcome the 4 to 1 odds against it, it then has to overcome the roughly 2 to 1 odds against being a commercial success.
Prior to all this the company needs capital to proceed, Merlin 1 cost ~$30 million after it blew out from its ~$13 million budget.