Member Info for Olderwiser

Rabito, thanks for the Link. Great work
Can I ask how the ~$4/barrel broker estimate is established, reverse calculating the latest Cannacord note I get US $5.81 on Theta West
Heavily influence by the choice on share number, voting, voting + non voting, or total diluted. In this calculation I used total shares on issue which includes the non voting B shares.

659,368,196 (voting) + 33,890,478 (non voting) = 693258674
Theta West unrisked @ £8.32 x 693258674 = 5,767,912,167
5,767,912,167/1,410,000,000 = £4.09/share
£4.09 x 1.42 = US$5.81

At US $ 5.81 it bears a reasonable relationship to NPV 10 numbers at around half the value

Newanda, yes I am pretty keen on PANR, it looks undervalued to me. A combination of factors OOIP, recoverable oil, 2c @ Alkaid, location, location, location. All of which are reasonable if not conservative estimates.
The fear factors such as porosity and flow, are pretty much mitigated by the VAS results in my mind. Then this is further backed up by analogues like Tarn. https://dggs.alaska.gov/webpubs/dggs/mp/text/mp136v102.pdf
The Tarn sandstones are a composite section of turbidites deposited on the slope and basin floor at a time of
low sea level in the Late Cretaceous (Morris and others, 2000). Clear onlap and downlap features were observable
in older vintage 2D seismic data and the general distribution of the turbidites was mappable in 1992. Lobes of Tarn
turbidites composite to a gross sandstone/mudstone interval up to a few hundred feet thick but average gross
sandstone thickness is about 50 feet (fig. 5). The sandstone has porosities between 18 and 27 percent and average

I don't expect porosities to be anywhere near this high, it gives a clue, but again VAS has already shown actual reservoir chips flow, so the regardless of its petrophysical properties, movable hydrocarbons have been proven already.

Just placing this copy here for future reference, cheers to the original posters

Hart Energy article

RESERVOIR EVALUATION
Pantheon Upgrades Resource Estimate for Alaska North Slope. The U.K based oil explorer estimates its Theta West project has about 1.4 billion barrels of recoverable resource based on analysis of a Basin Floor Fan discovery and 3-D seismic data.
By Velda Addison, Hart Energy Tue, 05/25/2021 - 03:34 PM
The Pantheon Resources-operated Talitha A well is located on the Alaska North Slope. (Source: Pantheon Resources)
Pantheon Resources Plc is a little guy among giants. On the Alaska North Slope, the small U.K. based exploration company weathered the storms of 2020,reducing its staff and cutting salaries, ending the financial year with a financial loss for the period, like many of its larger peers. The oil explorer, however, continues to take on risks in its quest to prove up oil potential across its 160,000-acre Alaskan position.
Pantheon said in May, the company believes its 100% owned Theta West Basin Floor Fan play project, which has been at the helm of the company’s leasing strategy, holds an estimated 1.41 billion barrels of recoverable oil based on a recovery factor of 20% in the Upper Basin Floor Fan and 11% in the Lower Basin Floor Fan. We’re literally talking about thousands, even horizontal, wells, if we’re right, to develop all of these zones,” Pantheon CEO Jay Cheatham told Hart Energy.

“Because we think going updip at Theta West, we’re going to have a 1,200-foot section in that Lower Basin Floor Fan. Then you add in the Shelf Margin Deltaic, the Kuparuk, Alkaid and we haven’t even talked about the Slope Fan,” for which resource estimates have not been released.
That system, he said, “looks fairly decent,” according to the logs from Talitha A and other analysis. If its latest resource estimates are proven, it could mark another win for Alaskan oil explorers.

Oil Search Ltd. added to its North Slope resources with the successful Mitquq and Stirrup prospects last year, which helped to boost its 2C contingent resources there to 969 million barrels.
Australia’s 88 Energy confirmed oil at its Merlin-1 well. Pantheon’s recent resource announcement highlights the scale of the potential in its 100% held Alaska North Slope licenses, Canaccord Genuity Capital Markets said in an analyst note May 24. Analysts called it an “undervalued Alaskan appraisal opportunity”.
The combination of
1) the very large resource,
2) access to services and land transportation via the nearby Dalton Highway,
3) availability of export pipeline infrastructure through the Trans Alaska Pipeline (TAP) which passes across Pantheon’s licenses,
4) a politically safe location,

Adds up, in our view, to an unusual combination in the E&P sector of positive attributes,” the note said. However, “there are though still uncertainties. Clearly, the Theta West reservoir (BFF) requires testing.
The end of the winter drilling season in Alaska in early April precluded that in the Talitha#A well, and further appraisal drilling, before the scale of the resources can be better defined and, most importantly, commerciality demonstrated.
The resource upgrade is based on Volatile Analysis Service, completed by Advanced Hydrocarbon Stratigraphy/Baker Hughes, that confirmed the presence of a continuous stacked oil-bearing reservoir zones over a 3,700-ft interval at the Talitha A well.
In April, Pantheon said the well, drilled after the company raised about $30 million at 12% equity dilution in November 2020, hit oil in the shallowest Shelf Margin Deltaic, Slope Fan System, Upper Basin Floor Fan, Lower Basin Floor Fan and deepest Kuparuk zones, though the latter flowed at a “disappointing rate” of up to 100 bbl/d.
No little company in the world at this stage would have 100%, but we do, Bob Rosenthal, technical director for Pantheon, told Hart Energy. When we drilled into the Talitha A well, we took a monumental risk for a little company.
We had this huge project called Theta West. We drilled it 1,500 feet downdip from the crest of the structure because we were targeting the shallower zones, but we knew we would intersect the Theta West. ”Source: Pantheon Resources
Pantheon interprets Theta West as a direct analog of the nearby smaller, shallower Tarn Field, a Kuparuk satellite field operated by ConocoPhillips. Pantheon said Theta West also extends east of Talitha A and was penetrated by Pipeline State #1 well, drilled by ARCO in 1988, downdip from Talitha, where oil was also found, Pantheon said.

The company said it categorizes the estimates as contingent based on these discoveries". It’s pretty obvious that a lot of the market doesn’t believe us because our price is actually down on the news,” said Cheatham, referring to the Talitha A results released in April. “And the other thing is we’re this tiny, underfunded E&P company. It’s difficult because we’re drilling one well a year. We need to change that dynamic, so that we’re drilling multiple wells.
Resource estimates for Alkaid were unchanged at about 76.5 million barrels (MMbbl) with 300 MMbbl for the Kuparuk and about 300 MMbbl for the Shelf Margin Deltaic, the executives said.
Next steps for Theta West are to test it next winter and drill the crestal location, Rosenthal said. “Starting at the Talitha A location, in the vertical hole, we will pick out a section of the Theta West fan and we will flow test that in the vertical,” he said, adding several other zones above that would also be tested. Cheatham added that the company could also return to the Kuparuk and retest it using a relative permeability modifier.
The next steps, however, are dependent on securing the needed funded. “We have to get it funded in one form or another,” Rosenthal said. The search for a partner for Pantheon is picking up again, following the 2020 slowdown. About a year ago, when the pandemic led to lockdowns and forced the world to deeply embrace the digital world, Cheatham said “We had a number of people in our data room, but it was clear that the least dilutive thing we could do was to raise equity and still keep 100% of the project internally.” Rosenthal pointed out that Pantheon is not the only company looking for a partner on the Alaska North Slope.
The groups to the west of us, Oil Search, Armstrong and Repsol, are looking for a partner to come into their project,” he said. “They’ve spent billions of dollars and they’re looking for a partner to come in and spend billions of dollars to get into their project.” Giving hope is Hilcorp Energy Co.’s $5.6 billion acquisition of BP Plc’s business in Alaska in late 2020; it’s evidence that A&D activity is happening on the North Slope.
With $50 million as opposed to literally hundreds of millions, we can prove up Theta West, test all of the zones in Talitha A and drill a well at Alkaid and put it on long-term production, where everyone else on the North Slope, literally, as Bob says, has to spend hundreds of millions or billions of dollars to get to that place,” Cheatham said. “We’re unique, and someone like Hilcorp, who as Bob says is great at plumbing, drilling hundreds or thousands of wells, would be a pretty, pretty decent partner, someone like them, if not them.”

I read it that you can, add all three plays together, for an unrisked 14.33

Are there any industry professionals able to comment further on the implications of the VAS testing. It is new to me but appears to go part way towards proving there will be flow. Effectively the cryogenically preserved recovered rock chip yields more oil than the unpreserved.
As the unpreserved has less oil, the difference between samples, is oil flow, as the rock chip depressurises, over time at surface pressure.
It is not a flow test as such, but is an indication of mobile oil in the chip, and the chip is a piece of reservoir.
Having a representative piece of reservoir producing oil under its own pressure drive, is the first step

Pander, raising at this price would be a poor choice, there is way more value here. The market has not believed the current oil numbers, best wait till it does. If the market doesn't catch up industry will do a much better deal.
For my money I would prefer an industry deal on part of the assets, Alkaid for example. Industry brings funding and a support team. With the scale of PANRs discovery's, they are going to need a larger team to do it justice

The below is copied from Baker Hughes website on VAS (as used at the Talitha well). What is interesting is the last claim, to be able to estimate ultimate recovery of oil in a well. Pretty useful to an early stage explorer, pre actual flow tests.
Developing this thought, they are in effect conducting micro flow tests on individual rock chips, from known depths in the well.
Start with two similar chips from the same location, perhaps halves of one chip, let one release all of its volatiles, preserve the other, test its undisturbed core. Analyse and compare oil composition, the difference has already proven it will flow, by flowing out of the weathered sample.

https://www.bakerhughes.com/integrated-well-services/integrated-well-construction/evaluation/surface-logging-services/cuttings-gas-evaluation
A range of reservoir insights
VAS gives you insights to understand oil migration and variable reservoir characteristics while designing your field development plan.
Specific properties and parameters include:
Measurements of C1-C10 content gas and compositional variations such as gas-to-oil ratios and presence of aromatics, paraffins, and heavies/lights
An analysis of the formation’s relative fracturability and permeability
An estimate of fluid saturations in the pore spaces of the rock
Assessments of the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of oil in a well

The sheer size of Theta west and Talitha BFF's upper and lower, combined with the short wait period for confirmation of the resource estimate, have rightly placed it front and centre of investors minds. But spare a thought for Alkaid.
Effectively Alkaid has become one of the bridesmaids, but separate her out from the wedding party and there is plenty to admire.
Alkaid already has a contingent resource of 76mmb, this was based on well data including a flow test of 100bpd over a 6 ft section. Selected from a net oil pay of 240 ft, from within 400 ft of gross oil pay.
Drilling was cut short (8485 ft TVD) by an extreme weather event whilst still in the pay section, seismic indicates there is probably more to come below.
Talitha has revealed another zone 750 ft above the tested zone at Alkaid. This is the SMD that extends from Talitha to Alkaid, some 56570 ft. Importantly just below the Decker D regional seal, at around 7100 to 7200 ft. Although PANR were aware of this zone in Alkaid, it would not have been part of the 76mmb of contingent resource, so will be a substantial addition when the work is completed.
Although close to infrastructure, Alkaid 1 is still subject to, a winter season only operating window.
In PANR's unitisation application Alkaid 2 is in the plan “Drilling operations are scheduled to take place in Summer 2021 from a gravel pad just west of the Dalton Highway. A currently estimated project timeline is as follows:”
Page 22
https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/9EC60B3C88AF462F8B2D52866ED0AE5D/11-2-2020__Alkaid_Unit_Formation_Application_-_2020_-_Decision_Approval?
Obviously things change so the timeline will slip, a farm in partner, or capital, will be sought, secured and involved before the plan can be actioned.
The economics improve with scale, initially the independent expert (LKA) gave a value of.
$595 million NPV10 based on modelled 44 wells, and c.70 MMBO (1)Phase 1 field development over a 20 year term at an oil price of $55 held flat
$8.50 NPV10 per barrel of oil
PANR have upgraded this to $795 million purely on the reduced drilling costs achieved at Talitha, reducing drilling cost by one third has added $200m to the value and increased the NPV10 per barrel of oil to $11.36.
Apply a scale up figure, unknown at this time but it is coming in a few months. For a visual perspective check page 36 of the presentation. Compare the small test flow zone (red bar) with the newly proven SMD going right across the page, at about 7150 ft on the Alkaid well drawing.(zoom up to see the depth numbers written on the well)
http://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/presentations/659-investor-presentation-april-2021/file

This may help, https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/52398839/single
The short version is, there were three targets identified pre drill N 18 and 20 are the shallow targets. All targets N20,18 and 14 were hit and all had oil shows.
Only the shallow targets N20 and 18 were sampled, both of these had high water %, so low oil%, which made them non viable

10.21
I have reasonable depth on the 88e history, and the damage done by SOA quasi default on its obligations. Where I lack is on the specifics of the PANR deal to acquire Great Bear.
From what I see, the argument is around what "acting in concert means" and how one gets to be a part of the concert.
Now to an assumption which I would welcome correction on. The concert members were grouped together as a legal entity, as a part of the deal. This is to ensure that the combined shareholding is recognised for threshold purposes, like the 30%
This is to protect shareholders interests, as this group had the potential to combine their interests at any point. Without being linked together, the individuals could acquire significant private holdings and gain an under the table advantage by acting together (in concert)

Are you suggesting that a mandatory offer if 30% is achieved is a problem. It is a shareholder protection from stealth acquisitions.
No shareholder is compelled to accept the mandatory offer

Ahh no edit feature, oops
That should be 20bb OIP

Hi Scott
I see you invited me to comment on the 88e board. re Farallon. To be clear I don't often comment on the 88e board, as my normal outlet is Hotcopper, It is more local to me and can upload graphics . At times my H/C posts get selectively copied in by other board members, in truth I don't have any meaningful standing there.
PANR is not dual listed (ASX,AIM) so this board will be an outlet for me.
As a newbie here, I am interested in where the 20mmb OIP for Theta/BFF comes from.
I am aware of two quotes from the webinar that suggest a range
https://www.share-talk.com/pantheon-resources-panr-l-investors-presentation-april-2021/#gs.zj2lny

33m 30sec"likely to have the highest hydrocarbon pore volume, at a play level, of any play on the North slope, since the discovery of Prudhoe bay. It is that big"

50m 20sec "One of the largest plays on the North slope, if not the largest"

With Prudhoe bay at 26 Bbo those are big statements. All will be confirmed in the upcoming promised resource update, but I am curious by nature.

Thanks, yes I have been through it twice now, but still catching up on the full story. The enthusiasm of the PANR presenters was palpable, and backed up by some impressive data.

PANR is currently available in the US as PTHRF, on the OTC market. It is not a true listing as such, but functions in a similar manner to AIM. Brokers make the market, rather than a central exchange.

I do put a lot of time into a few stocks, get to know their story very well, maintain the interest and invest if they start to stack up for me. Having done the research, sometimes its worth sharing
Most people do have an altruistic streak, it what makes us a successful species

From the reply you cannot have read it, it is a new pov

This post went on hot copper 1st April 06.40.
I posted it here in the closed period to avoid all the deramping claims being thrown. As obviously the should be more definitive info Tuesday morning. This is just a point of view