Member Info for Olderwiser

07.30
The precedent is the problem, not the individual case it applies to. There is now a decision to reference for future cases on Federal land.
The first reason opens a can of worms, that will be hard to close again
GRANTED in part and DENIED in part.433
IT IS ORDERED that:
• BLM’s approval of the Willow Project under NEPA is VACATED for
the following reasons:
o BLM’s exclusion of foreign greenhouse gas emissions in its
alternatives analysis in the EIS was arbitrary and capricious.
o BLM acted contrary to law insofar as it developed its
alternatives analysis based on the view that ConocoPhillips had
the right to extract all possible oil and gas from its leases.
o BLM acted contrary to law in its alternative analysis for the
Teshekpuk Lake Special Area insofar as it failed to consider the
statutory directive that it give “maximum protection” to surface
values in that area

Yes the article is wrong, it wont be the first or last

Alaska state land is still good to go, Icewine is all Alaska state. The judges ruling is federal land, (Umiat and Perigrine), to that end there is a fence around the size of the problem.

Ford707
That is remarkable, check page 14 of the annual report, it shows NPRA land in grey, with Peregrine and UMIAT enclosed within
http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20210309/02351475.pdf?uid=13CBA0A32B27F6A204EB73A3F6331AD0A16800009275AE7C8BB9E540093D250091850000&ppv=

10.02
A very good guide to the integrity of the company I find

09.01
So many ifs, I thinks and he believes, that it becomes a waffle

08.51
The exact point, a fantastic promotional video, with much better prospects than the current one. Resulted in a failure

I suspect that would at least in part be my fault, in reintroducing the Charlie 1 promotional video.
As a comparator to the latest Merlin promotional piece, they have considerable similarity, although the case for Charlie 1 does come over as stronger. Also supported by the validation, attracting an actual oil company farmin partner, on good terms gives.
Well worth viewing the two presentations side by side, given the outcome of Charlie 1, was so poor
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kHZ5K09GgU
https://youtu.be/zxg2fxPLG-k
Mostly promotional videos form a component of future capital raises, are they fully self funding this year, and do they have a choice.

88e is not what it was.
It is a traders share now, and supported by sentiment, rather than a risk reward calculation.
The game is to buy into the drill leadup, and sell before results come out. In effect, out play the others trying to outplay you.
It is an extremely risky play/gamble, only play with money you expect to lose.
The current share price is miles above fair value on a risk reward basis.
Note 14.4 billion shares now, and D Wall sold 60 plus percent of his shares at last count.
I believe I understand this game but it is not for me, better for the karma, to find a share where everyone can win, because the company creates actual value.
As to the new video, snap, a known and disappointing out come to learn from
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kHZ5K09GgU

I don't expect any thing official on Farallon, as it is not a mandatory report, and they stay private. TR1 are mandatory on a % change in holding.
I take my confirmation from others, that are GB holders caught in the debt repayment/underwriting scheme. Their calculations will be better informed than any. Sorry I wont point you to them as I respect their privacy

Dilution is assumed in the Canaccord valuation @ 170p/share. Financial modelling required an input, it does not mean this is the number or pathway forward. Copied below.
. Consequently, we have assumed the company funds the planned 2022 operational programme through
internally generated financial resources and so maintains 100% working interest across its licence base. For simplicity we have assumed $40m raised at the current share price,
resulting in projected total FD of 785m shares. Current FD share count is 727m.

By all accounts, Farallon have finished selling debt shares(original GB holders shares),. Farallon still have a considerable body of shares that they own directly. These will be treated like an investment as Farallon bear the risk and reward on these.

Yeah OK, I am on record as believing industry is going to value PANR, in which case the other promotional aspects play a minor role, if any. It is the beauty of this share, fundamental value will set the price

Hello Goldstinger, You did well, till the fourth line, the difference is massive in terms of fundamental value. PANR is lining up as a success, whilst 88e is lining up as a cautionary tale, on the risks of social media pump squads

Beyond coincidence I think, when managing director D Wall retired, he held 120038015 shares. These then exactly doubled to 240076030.

Now his announced holding, of 176436190 at yesterdays update, has exactly halved to 88218095.

It poses a question, did the reward that doubled the shares held, also have a clawback that halved the number under certain conditions, such as, a major disposal within a time frame.

Whatever the answer it is a puzzle

Bringing this thread back up the list

Combined with all the other data PANR have released, VAS is worth taking the time to understand. The short version is it can predict flow, by comparing a naturally DE pressured rock chip with one that has its contents mostly preserved, the difference is flow. From that extrapolate field flow.
If you accept VAS as a valid indicator of EUR, then there is reason to also be confident in PANR numbers and expectation of flow rates

On the Baker Hughes site there are a few case studies worth reviewing. Their ability to predict ultimate oil recovery by this method, gives great weight to the Baker Hughes opinion on the Talitha results
Example below
hxxps://www.bakerhughes.com/sites/bakerhughes/files/2020-10/VAS-accurately-predicted-production-laterals-permian-basin-cs.pdf
The VAS cuttings analysis predicted
each of the laterals estimated ultimate
recovery (EUR) at 800,000 barrels
(127,190 m3) before the laterals were
completed and fractured. The total
production rate from both laterals was
3,000 barrels per day (477 m3), with an
customer-revised EUR of 1 million barrels
(based on the collected data). The
EUR expectation from the VAS closely
resembled the estimate made by the
customer based on the production data

https://t.co/uDJqZmu1RZ?amp=1
Might be a better link

13:46
Hello Brom, the numbers are in the detail section of the link you posted, page 18
https://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02406997.pdf

If it was known that oil would be there, the company would not give these odds on geological success.
N20 = 24%
N19 = 19%
N18 = 28%
It may go some way towards explaining the lack of a flow test plan.
Charlie 1 had much better odds, and still the expense in having flow test equipment on site, proved to be a waste, as the equipment was unsuitable for the hydrocarbons found ( High gas to oil ratio). An expensive lesson learnt .

Binarylogic is way off in this post, "directly adjacent to TAPS and the highway"
This gas is more than 50 KM away, no infrastructure in place to support any novel use. Think personnel, fibre, supply logistics

Goldstinger 20:05
Although it would be a pleasant surprise to see an early farm out deal, PANR are not yet in the quarter they have indicated it is targeted for.
Corporate Update

"As previously announced, Pantheon must complete a farmout or funding in Q4 2021 to have sufficient resources for both working capital and for the anticipated future winter 2021/22 drilling and testing campaign. The Company continues to proactively manage expenditures and to engage with potential farminees/partners in the meantime."

With that in mind being impatient now is a bit premature.
As I understand it Farallon are pulling the strings on the unfortunate GB concert. Selling for a pound of flesh on debts owed.
As such they can sell as many GB shares as required to repay the debt, the terms are unknown, but I would speculate the repayments are quarterly, rather than monthly, as in July no sales occurred.
From the history of Farallon sales, a dollar value can be calculated, on a monthly and quarterly basis. Highest monthly was £5.7m in June and £10.9m in the June quarter
Currently the month of September is at £3m and the September quarter at £7.9m, this suggest further sales of a maximum £2.7 to 3m in the remainder of this month. Subject to remaining within previous established highs.
All highly speculative of course, but something to consider in the quiet times.