Member Info for Olderwiser

The site is a bit confusing, the prices are in pennies, which makes the numbers also in pennies,

Mangroves current loss on this roll of the dice, entered at 22.32 pennies is $671,804

Http://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20230913/02711427.pdf?uid=3EF3736D7A6BBD450248D12E16756E0DAA0B0000EC46F7BC3A10E640093D250091850000&ppv=

At the conclusion of the process, the remaining shares from the Small Holding Sale Facility is

a total of 212,193,734 ordinary shares (Share Facility Shares). The Company’s broker, Euroz Hartleys

Limited will now commence the sale of the Sale Facility Shares in an orderly manner

PANR are rightly being conservative in the numbers they use, currently the NSAI 963m estimate, with maybe an extra 500m to come from Ahpun, but there is pretty clear indicator a larger number is being planned for at 60 minutes into the presentation.

https://youtu.be/aisVpzHLnbY?t=3602

D Hobbs answers a question on possible gas value, in reply he reaffirms there will be 3 production wells to 1 reinjection well, and states there will be 2000 or so wells ( it could be 3000, the audio is not crystal clear)

Further confirmation on the number at 1:03:45 referring to 2000 development locations (again unclear maybe 3000) Using the lower 2000 development locations, this can be read as production wells, to which reinjection wells at 1:3 ratio adds 667 reinjection wells.

Interesting as the budget for the 667 re injectors is $5 to 6 billion, a cost of (avg 5.5b/667) $8.2m per injection well.

More interesting is the calculation when this 2000 producer wells is multiplied by the expected EUR per well of 1.2m barrels.

It shows at this early stage PANR are already thinking 2.4 billion barrels of recoverable liquids, that is almost 1 billion barrels more.

Study the numbers on Mangroves short progression of late and its clear they are not gurus

The link lags a bit but the history is revealing

https://shorteurope.com/history_player.php?player=THE%20MANGROVE%20PARTNERS%20MASTER%20FUND%20LTD.&land=united_kingdom#Pantheon%20Resources%20Plc

On an objective basis, the choices are clear, give weight to the words of the Executive Director.

A world class expert in tight oil plays, bound by the responsibilities of being a company representative, under the restrictive hand of the Nomad.

Who recently joined the company and twice since purchased significant amounts of shares, with their own personal reserves.

People like this have curiosity with disciplined passion, and go to work, because they love the work and challenge, not for a salary

Or a random poster team, appearing aligned with a dishonest short attack thesis,, with a history of missing 100% gains, while posting about expecting another 50% loss

https://youtu.be/xZgKx3NFRPw?t=537

D Hobbs at `~ 9 mins

“We believe that we pass the economic threshold to begin, the regulatory process to install the hot tap into the TAP's main oil pipeline, around two miles north of our leases, and for the state, to begin approving our Ahpun development plan.

We don't underestimate the scale of the task ahead, but we believe it can be achieved, at acceptable levels of value dilution, through initiation of a low-cost phased development program, leading to positive cash flows sufficient to fund all future activity on the assets”

Part 2

Allegra Hosford Scheirer

Allegra Hosford Scheirer as Non-Executive Director with immediate effect. (3 July 2023)

Allegra is an internationally recognised expert in petroleum system analysis, having deployed basin modelling, organic geochemistry, geophysical techniques, and machine learning to evaluate numerous oil and gas provinces throughout the world, including the Alaska North Slope. Allegra graduated with a Ph.D. in marine geology and geophysics from the,Massachusetts Institute of Technology,and subsequently worked with the Energy Resources Program at the,U.S. Geological Survey,("USGS"). She has been a scientist at,Stanford University,for 15 years.

David Hobbs, Executive Chairman of,Pantheon Resources, said:,"We are delighted to welcome Allegra to the Board as an Independent Non-Executive Director. She brings a deep knowledge of the, Alaskan North Slope Super Basin, and a keen understanding of what it takes to transition from exploration to exploitation.

I have to point out, the "message board posters " have been correct from 10.5 p up, but that is not the point, it is the BOD communications people should be paying attention too

Part 1

Repost on BOD appointments

o put a perspective in front of investors, below are the 3 new additions to the PANR team

All joined after the point in the discovery and flow testing cycle at which, the so called “bad news” of Alkaid 2 was out in the public domain.

The share price was tanking (~26p) under a sustained short attack, based on disinformation and misdirection, much of which, is from known bad actors, with allegations and convictions for fraud in their resumes

So the question is, why did these experts in their fields, who have the ability, and information to conduct in depth due diligence, align themselves with PANR

D Hobbs even came inside as an Independent Director, and then after ~10 weeks, with the full benefit of data examination as an insider, stepped up to Executive Chairman

I would invite investors to assess the quality of these new additions and weigh their merits against the mis informers and anonymous posters of social media and discussion sites.

David Hobbs

Independent Non-Executive Director, effective 21 March 2023.

Executive Chairman upon execution of an employment agreement. (notified 8 June 2023)

David graduated as a Petroleum Engineer from, Imperial College in 1984, initially working at British Gas, as a drilling engineer before moving into commercial and business development roles at Monument Oil & Gas and Hardy Oil and Gas, two UK listed international independent E&P companies. He joined Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), now part of S&P Global, ending up as Chief Energy Strategist, advising Government officials, senior executives and Boards of Directors across the energy sector. He also spent six years as part of the leadership team establishing the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. David is an adjunct professor at the University of Calgary.

Phillip Gobe, Chairman, of Pantheon Resources, said: "We are delighted to welcome David to the Board as an Independent Non-Executive Director. David has a long-established career in energy strategy, with a demonstrable record of driving success in multiple jurisdictions. He brings a wealth of experience to the team, and I look forward to having him work alongside us as we continue working towards demonstrating the commerciality of our portfolio of an estimated 17.8 billion barrels of oil in place, as recently modelled by SLB Limited (formally known as Schlumberger)."

Tony Beilman

Pantheon confirms the appointment of Mr Tony Beilman, to the team to strengthen the Company's operational capability. Tony is a Petroleum Engineer with decades of engineering and operations experience and has been tasked with a clear mandate to improve and optimise operational performance. (announced 20 March 2023)

Allegr

Maestro1

PANR valuation will advance as the project comes on stream, Before reaching FID on Ahpun, as final proof of the project, a new production well will be drilled and tested. It could be in either, the SMDB or Alkaid zone of interest, with this proven flow rate, decline curve and contingent resources uprated to reserves, a market cap of $200m will be a historical curiosity.

The $350m will be drawn against a rising production profile, so interest rates will be reasonable, and as stressed by PANR will not be all required at once, much of it will be drawn shortly before a well is drilled and put in production. With individual wells repaying capital in 8 months the production profile will quickly offset the capital required to fast track development as planned.

.

More a case of showing it does not need one, if an attractive offer comes along, it will go in the mix.

The end goal is industry recognition of $5 to $10 per barrel,

Part 2

With that in mind the funding and progression rate, is a strategically negotiable decision matrix ,that can be tweaked for the optimum outcome for shareholders at any time.

As an important side note

The company numbers on economics, are based on (arguably PANRs poorest geology), the Alkaid 2 results, with no allowance for the improved economics , as PANR move onto better reservoir, such as encountered at Kodiak (quote “and assume that nothing improves as we move into better reservoir” https://youtu.be/xZgKx3NFRPw?t=1820 )

I have added a bit to this so reposting for the W/E

Part 1

PANR have a development plan to reach a fully self funding, at this point cash surplus will pay for all future development

Budgeted at $350 m and set to produce a peak flow of 20000 bpd of blended hydrocarbon liquids, that will sell at 90% of Alaska north slope oil price

Based on 2 gravel pads with 15 producing and 5 reinjection wells each

Finding $350m is the concern, when it is broken down into components, NEED to have and NICE to have, it seems very achievable

NEED,

To get to first production PANR NEED

$20m for hot tap into TAPS, sized for 200,000 bpd (future proofed for Kodiak production)

$20m for refrigeration plant to extract condensate and NGLs

$20m for a producing well (best guess as it will take scale efficiencies to reach the $13m of full development

$0 for a reinjection well ????, as Alkaid2 may be repurposed for this, if not it will be a low end producer, and an injection well will be needed

This is the basic building block, that will start cash flow, from there new wells can be added at ever decreasing costs, until the budgeted $13m/ well is achieved.

Achieving this will demonstrate a successful new pilot operation, and could be all that is required to sell the Ahpun project on

A $13m well has an EUR of 1.2 mb and an IRR of 33% @$70/bbl ANS, or IRR of 52% @ $80/bbl ANS. Note 6/9/23 ANS price is $93.40 https://tax.alaska.gov/

Staying with the lower $70/bbl pricing, the $13m well pays the capital back in 8 months, and has a NPV10 of $28.7m

https://youtu.be/xZgKx3NFRPw?t=1000

That is the need to have as it gets to first sustained production, and will prove the viability, both geologically and commercially. From there keep adding wells as required, using reserve backed lending.

NICE

NICE to have is accessing funding of $350m, to simultaneously develop 2 pads and facilities with 30 producing wells, drill 3 appraisal wells in Kodiak, all to achieve sufficient surplus cash flow to fully self fund the development of the Kodiak and Ahpun fields without needing to talk to another financier ever again.

Much of this $350m can be reserve backed debt, which becomes an option once the first well comes on line.

As discussed in webinars, there is no need for an up front $350m, it will be drawn as needed in project delivery, and timed to have the bulk of spend close to incoming cash flow from online wells

Roughly

$70m first wells on line

$234m another 14 producing wells plus reinjectors on Alkaid 2 gravel pad

$285m 2nd gravel pad with 15 producing wells plus reinjectors and proccessing plant

$50m for 3 appraisal wells in Kodiak

All up a $639m spend on capital development, with $350m planned as required new capital the remaining $289 is coming from revenue from production over the implementation timeline

NICE is the smart move, but it is not mandatory, it just gets to the end goal faster.

To confirm the numbers Mangrove are short on 1.11% of 907,206,399 shares as of 6/9/23. Equaling 10,069,991 shares they will have to repurchase to close their short.

Watching this space

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B125SX82/

From the 1st to the 6th of September Mangrove have increased their short by 4.7m shares, now at over 10m short.

Implying they have sold 4.7m shares into the market over that time period, and have achieved minimal share price suppression. Shorts will typically distort the market to their advantage as they place, in this case no result

Looking forward to them realizing their error, and closing out by buying 10m shares on market

Mangrove have got their fat greedy fingers jammed in the till now, I hope no one sells them a single share under 1 pound

Expect some share price maneuvering as they try to extract themselves with mini trades, loss leaders included

Absolutely brilliant move, places shares in firm long term hands.

The influence of a strategist as Executive Director are becoming increasingly apparent

PANR have shown a development plan to reach a fully self funding, at this point cash surplus will pay for future development

Budgeted at $350 m and set to produce a peak flow of 20000 bpd of blended hydrocarbon liquids, that will sell at 90% of Alaska north slope oil price

Based on 2 gravel pads with 15 producing and 5 reinjection wells each

All sounds rather a steep demand on funding until it is broken down, into NEED to have and NICE to have.

NEED

To get to first production PANR NEED

$20m for hot tap into TAPS, sized for 200,000 bpd (future proofed for Kodiak production)

$20m for refrigeration plant to extract condensate and NGLs

$20m for a producing well (best guess as it will take scale efficiencies to reach the $13m of full development

$0 for a reinjection well ????, as Alkaid2 may be repurposed for this, if not it will be a low end producer, and an injection well will be needed

This is the basic building block, that will start cash flow, from there new wells can be added at ever decreasing costs, until the budgeted $13m/ well is achieved.

A $13m well has an EUR of 1.2 mb and an IRR of 33% @$70/bbl ANS, or IRR of 52% @ $80/bbl ANS. Note 6/9/23 ANS price is $93.40 https://tax.alaska.gov/

Staying with the lower $70/bbl pricing, the $13m well pays the capital back in 8 months, and has a NPV10 of $28.7m

https://youtu.be/xZgKx3NFRPw?t=1000

That is the need to have as it gets to first sustained production, and will prove the viability, both geologically and commercially. From there keep adding wells as required, using reserve backed lending.

NICE

NICE to have is accessing funding of $350m, to simultaneously develop 2 pads and facilities with 30 producing wells, drill 3 appraisal wells in Kodiak, all to achieve sufficient surplus cash flow to fully self fund the development of the Kodiak and Ahpun fields without needing to talk to another financier ever again.

NICE is the smart move, but it is not mandatory, it just gets to the end goal faster.

With that in mind the funding and progression rate is a negotiable, that can be tweaked for the optimum outcome for shareholders

Finding proof of Oilman Jims dishonesty is difficult, as he blocks anyone that questions his libelous assertions, so denying them access to the twitter records

But here is one on PANR, that got captured in a repost

@Oilman_Jim

You can read what I've got in the blog on Sunday. I saw confirmation of a scam.

Jun 29

Replying to

With held,

This is a prime example, of the dishonesty that has infested social media, during the short campaign against PANR, little wonder the share price got unrealistically beaten down.

Good to see PANR fighting back with reputable independent reports on their assets

WH Ireland note of 17/05/23 in regards to the 17p capital raise result, sums up the possibilities here.

New institutions took initial positions, then waited on the NSAI independent report before moving

WHI View:

Most significantly, the show of robust institutional equity support for Pantheon Resources is itself a very significant development that, in our opinion, represents a turning point for company.

We make that statement in a context where equity capital raises and IPOs are at multi-year lows, while recognising that funding is critical for early-stage oil & gas appraisal projects

– this is a show of force that essentially alleviates the most significant challenge for the company, namely, funding.

Further supported by

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/w03k7zw

Jay Cheatham, CEO of Pantheon Resources, said:

"I'm pleased the market has rewarded our efforts in maturing this significant asset on the North Slope. The offering was materially oversubscribed, allowing Pantheon to raise approximately $22 million in a difficult market at a small discount to yesterday's close. In particular we are delighted to welcome to our shareholder list some well known investing institutions; some for the first time and some as they return.

13:27

https://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/shareholder-documents/681-netherland-sewell-associates-independent-expert-report-contingent-resource-estimates-of-the-kodiak-project/file

14/11/22

Muddywaters announce short attack, share price declines from 88p to 72p, on the day a 16p drop on sentiment

29/08/23

NSAI report shows Muddy waters short was fabricated Bull, sp starts at 14p