Member Info for Olderwiser

Louis 10

I see you have confessed

When a poster robustly corrects the errors in your posts, you feel they are being aggressive, and this hurts your feelings. So you then post negatively, despite the facts being positive.

With your advance knowledge of social media commentators/ influencers, you also know they have all responded in the same manner, much like a boiler room operates

Cheers for the heads up

What do the boiler room all think about 88e, skipping the flow test on their largest prospect at Hickory 1 this season. Lets hope no one has insulted them with a little accurate fact checking

Who amongst all of us, has the information and expertise, to make the most meaningful statements on PANRs prospects. I would suggest it is this quite remarkable team, who are required to damp their statements in suitable understated RNS language

David Hobbs, Executive Chairman, said: "Congratulations to Jay and the operational team on a trouble-free operation that supports the economic case for developing our entire portfolio of resources. Gathering the last few data elements for our development planning allows us to move forward at full speed towards bringing Ahpun on stream in 2026 with Kodiak to follow. We estimate that we have surpassed the 40% frac efficiency upon which our development plan was predicated and will aim to achieve substantial further improvements during the early stages of development.

" that supports the economic case for developing our entire portfolio of resources.”

“allows us to move forward at full speed towards bringing Ahpun on stream in 2026 with Kodiak to follow”

“surpassed the 40% frac efficiency upon which our development plan was predicated”

I see my post on this topic was removed, presumably collateral damage in cleaning up the trash. So reposting

Part 1

The financing message embedded in the latest presentations, becomes pretty clear when it is distilled down from the wider topics in the transcripts

THE ANSWER IS THAT, WHEN YOU'VE GOT A SHARE THAT IS CURRENTLY TRADING AT $300 MILLION, MOSTLY ON THE BASIS OF PEOPLE'S SKEPTICISM, ABOUT THE ABILITY TO FINANCE DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DILUTION, YOU MAY WAKE UP ONE MORNING AND FIND THAT THAT ASSUMPTION IS NO LONGER VALID,

WE ARE IN DISCUSSIONS AROUND FINANCING OF THE DEVELOPMENTS,

BUT WE IN BETWEEN THOSE TIMES, WE ARE PROGRESSING DISCUSSIONS ON FINANCING, AND OF COURSE, WE'LL ANNOUNCE AS SOON AS WE HAVE ARRANGEMENTS IN AN ANNOUNCABLE FORM.

THE AMOUNT OF NON-EQUITY FUNDING SORRY, THAT WE NEED IN ORDER TO, AVOID DILUTION TO OUR SHAREHOLDERS.

BUT WE'RE IN DISCUSSIONS WITH VENDORS AND OFF-TAKERS AND LENDERS IN ORDER TO REDUCE THAT EQUITY COMPONENT TO THE MINIMUM POSSIBLE.AND OUR HOPE IS TO BE ABLE TO BRING THAT DOWN, MAYBE TO AS LOW AS $50 MILLION OF EQUITY REQUIREMENT, AND WE WILL BE OVER THE COURSE OF OF THE COMING MONTHS, WILL BE ANNOUNCING THOSE ARRANGEMENTS AS WE PROGRESS THEM, WHICH IS REALLY THE MAIN NEXT NEWS UH ALONG THE WAY

THE COMPANY WILL PROVIDE FURTHER UPDATES ON ITS FINANCING ACTIVITIES, DESIGNED TO MINIMIZE EQUITY OR OTHER VALUE DILUTION FOR EXISTING INVESTORS, AS ARRANGEMENTS PROGRESS.

When I read these statements from the OTC presentation and latest RNS, I cannot help but be convinced

PANR are in active engaged discussion over financing

It will be minimally dilutive, with a hope of only $50m in equity funding.

It may take a little time to be an announceable deal, but it is falling into place.

Then my own speculative punt, VENDORs are front of list in terms of finance discussions, and PANRs biggest vendor providing the advanced modelling and fracking services is SLB, who by now know everything there is to know about PANR.. Would SLB be considering a royalty regime in return for development financing, As an $80 billion company they have the development resources to advance.

https://youtu.be/JJ7DvA8gK9s?t=426

Transcripts from which the messages are distilled to give better context and detail

David Hobbs

31.00

So one final quick question, which was .What's the case for owning the shares today, rather than waiting until next spring or next year to own them

THE ANSWER IS THAT, WHEN YOU'VE GOT A SHARE THAT IS CURRENTLY TRADING AT $300 MILLION, MOSTLY ON THE BASIS OF PEOPLE'S SKEPTICISM, ABOUT THE ABILITY TO FINANCE DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DILUTION, YOU MAY WAKE UP ONE MORNING AND FIND THAT THAT ASSUMPTION IS NO LONGER VALID, and the share price has shown, that when it runs it runs, so of course anyone who wants to to own shares with a higher cost base, should wait and buy later. and anyone who wants to take the ride as it currently is, should be happy to be a shar

Part 2

19.45

WE ARE IN DISCUSSIONS AROUND FINANCING OF THE DEVELOPMENTS, and in terms of the next news flow , we're expecting now, probably the Netherlands report on the Alkaid zone of interest , in I would expect the first quarter of next year ,to be followed by the report on the SMD, which will incorporate obviously, the results of the of the recent well test that we announced this morning, BUT WE IN BETWEEN THOSE TIMES, WE ARE PROGRESSING DISCUSSIONS ON FINANCING, AND OF COURSE, WE'LL ANNOUNCE AS SOON AS WE HAVE ARRANGEMENTS IN AN ANNOUNCABLE FORM. Which I would expect, to be over the course of the coming weeks and months, certainly we'll have more to say on that, before the end of the first quarter of 2024 .

So they're exciting times, doing an awful lot of boring things, and the key question that that I know we get asked repeatedly is, why should I be invested in Pantheon, and the answer is simply, that if we can achieve cash self-sufficiency that underpins then our position as a price maker not a price taker

And we have a minimum of a billion barrels recoverable, as already certified by independent experts, and an appraisal program leading up to the development of Kodiak, that could well take us as Jay says, towards those P10 numbers as our base case. Then anyone can do the math and realize, the gearing that's there, is from a $300 million market cap to whatever the outcome would be, at one to two billion barrels at 5 to $10 per barrel

7.10

And of that we will seek to maximize the amount of equity, THE AMOUNT OF NON-EQUITY FUNDING SORRY, THAT WE NEED IN ORDER TO, AVOID DILUTION TO OUR SHAREHOLDERS. So as I said first goal ,get to financial self-sufficiency, that needs around 40 Wells, to get to First production requires three new wells plus the use of the existing well as an injection well

And we estimate that'll be around $120 million, Kodiak will follow on as as mentioned earlier, growing ultimately to around 200,000 barrels a day. That's what we'll be sizing our entry into the pipeline, to be able to handle at least.

When we look at funding , it may sound like a lot of money to raise $ 120 to $150 million, before you can be drawing down on reserve basis lending , BUT WE'RE IN DISCUSSIONS WITH VENDORS AND OFF-TAKERS AND LENDERS IN ORDER TO REDUCE THAT EQUITY COMPONENT TO THE MINIMUM POSSIBLE.AND OUR HOPE IS TO BE ABLE TO BRING THAT DOWN, MAYBE TO AS LOW AS $50 MILLION OF EQUITY REQUIREMENT, AND WE WILL BE OVER THE COURSE OF OF THE COMING MONTHS, WILL BE ANNOUNCING THOSE ARRANGEMENTS AS WE PROGRESS THEM, WHICH IS REALLY THE MAIN NEXT NEWS UH ALONG THE WAY

RNS 19/ 10 /23

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/xqlk1kr

THE COMPANY WILL PROVIDE FURTHER UPDATES ON ITS FINANCING ACTIVITIES, DESIGNED TO MINIMIZE EQUITY OR OTHER VALUE DILUTION FOR EXISTING INVESTORS, AS ARRANGEMENTS PROGRESS.

PANR modeling is based on a 10000 ft horizontal well, so should track to their development plan. This single stage test of the SMDB was an economic, cheap as chips windfall, as the SMDB was not expected to be so good in this location. The location was chosen for the Alkaid zone of interest reservoir properties there

Thanks Peaky. Yes the target is 80%, which is the industry benchmark, so I would expect it to be achieved over time, each stimulation is a learning event

Part 2

As a rough guide in the Alk2 ZOI ~ 7000 scf of gas yielded 1 associated barrel of combined NGL and condensate, so 157500/7000 = 22.5 barrels of NGL and condensate to possibly add to the 45 bpd of oil, this 67.5 bpd of saleable liquids from a single stage is huge when it is considered a 10000 ft horizontal may have 60 stages, the implied total flow of 4050 is mind bendingly good.

To keep it real these numbers are based on a 5 day flow test not a 30 day IP, so some decline is expected, but given the target was 1500 bpd of combined liquids, there is a considerable margin for slippage

Part 1

PANR set out to prove 3 things in this SMDB flow test, it seems a 100% scorecard takes time for the market to digest

The SMDB will flow oil, there was a risk it would not as demonstrated at Talitha where a blockage occurred and the test failed. With the new fracture stimulation plan, this risk has been mitigated as it has now flowed

The next generation fracture design would deliver an increase in fracture efficiency to the 40% required to make the projects valuable. The viability of oil extraction in all of the projects has been costed on this key outcome. It is an enormous step forward to have now proven 40% and beyond is in the bag by delivering 50% in only the second attempt. Going above the now low case of 40% feeds directly into bottom line profit gains on all of the oil resource

Gas oil ratio in production can be improved from that encountered at ALK 2 ZOI, there it was ~12700 scf/barrel of oil, the SMDB has just delivered a much reduced 3000 to 4000 scf/barrel of oil.

If this holds under further analysis, it is another bottom line gain, over and above the already viable models, that were all based on the ALK 2 ZOI long term flow results, that showed the almost 3 times higher GOR

Reconstructed 11 day flow test timeline from RNS details

Flowback frack fluid at an average of 1100 bpd for the first 6 days, at which point 60% of frack fluid has been recovered

On day 6 N2 lift begins, and oil begins to flow on day 7, it has a 90% water cut

Over the next 5 days inclusive oil flows at an average of 45bpd, with a range of 30 to 100bpd. It would be expected, that the lowest flow would be when oil flow begins, and associated 90% water cut prevails, giving a water rate of 270 bpd and oil bpd of 30, on day 1 of oil flow

From there frack fluid (water cut ) will decline and oil flow increase, we know the peak was at 100bpd plus, where in the remaining four days is unsure.

Bearing in mind this flow test is undertaken, in a single stage fracture, in a sub optimum part of the reservoir, with the choke restricted to minimize gas flow, by minimizing pressure drop in the reservoir, a average 45 bpd of oil is very encouraging

Note this is oil only, and does not include condensate or NGLs that would be recovered by chilling the produced gas flow.

Looking at Alk 2 ZOI results 30 stages delivered an IP 30 flow of 180bpd oil and 325 bpd of combined NGLs and condensate, so each single stage would average 6 bpd of oil and ~11 bpd of Ngl and condensate. Combined 17 bpd of saleable liquids

PANR have used the equivalent of a new design single stage horizontal fracture, as the template for this vertical fracture.

Next question is how much NGL and condensate can reasonably be expected from 3000 to 4000scf of gas that is produced for each barrel of oil. The SMDB test produced an average of 45bpd of oil, so use a mid point for gas flow of 3500 scf/barrel, gives 157500scf/d

20:27

Pretty clear Dim thinks PANR results will make the 88e case for the mugs, and more importantly, it is undeserved, as 88e is down dip and not directly comparable reservoir.

Dims problem is he is now caught between his desire to sabotage PANR while promoting 88E on PANR success

Interesting to see Oilman Dim is turning positive on PANR, and now sees it at as an undeserved positive catalyst for 88e, as most punters do not realize the superiority of PANR reservoirs.

A more helpful blogger, in support of his followers investment success, would point out the up dip position and spell out the improvement in porosity and permeability that goes with lesser burial depth in PANR reservoirs

Quote Dim suckerstack

"Few understand the geological differences between the two companies’ land tracts and, other than PANR enthusiasts, fewer are going to explain it, so although having to wait a few months for its own flow test, 88 Energy is likely to benefit significantly from any positive sounding news from Pantheon"

A vast contingent oil resource, in the oil friendly state of Alaska, easily developed from the Dalton Highway, in the energy security sensitive USA, is not influenced by the price of oil

Ok got it Louis, what wisdom next

The amended Plan of operations shows about 1 month, with RNS advising commencement of operations on 27/9/23, mid is looking like late September

"The project is anticipated to begin mid-September 2023 and end mid-October 2023."

https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/Download/52A49A3414A04A24AFAF32942FBEAF22/LONS%2022-002%20Great%20Bear%20AKU%20Alkaid%202%20Re-entry%20Project%20Unit%20Plan%20of%20Operations%20Amendment%20-%20Approved.pdf

Hi Peaky

It is a little early to be certain on the flare picture, it is in the right place and timewise about due.

Currently it lacks the clarity to be sure, and could for example be the rig lighting, and some atmospheric distortions, or a short term well operation. I see the lighting in the airport foreground is also a flame colour.

A sustained and stable flare is the expectation in testing, but this should be way smaller than last years 2500 mcfpd, that was clearly visible from the distant airport camera. The shrinkage would be in the order of 30 to 1, as last season there were 30 frack stages v this seasons single one, so think 3.3% of last years flare.

I did not expect, this anticipated to be, much much smaller flare, to be visible from Deadhorse airport, so look forward to a confirming sneaky close up picture or better still RNS on flowback, before celebrating.

Obviously there are other factors in play, that can increase or decrease the proportional 3.3% flare size, on this single stage test

This is a larger fracture around double the water and proppant of a single stage in the horizontal fracture at ALK 2

Fracture efficiency, if the planned increase from 20% to 40% is achieved, it should double flow

SMDB has better reservoir qualities (porosity and permeability) so should flow faster, but it did not flow effectively in the last attempted test at Talitha (blockage ??) leaving it an unknown till this result comes out.

GOR a decrease from Alk 2 result will reduce the flare

Holding production back on the choke as planned for data collection and proppant stability, will also reduced gas and oil produced

The TAPS permit question is a much longer term thing, don't hold your breath on that, as it has to grind its way through all the stages of design, redesign, checks and regulatory approval, hence the 2 year time frame given

Cripes Nigel you really are trying your very best to make a problem out of thin air.

If you chose to do a little digging, you will see gas reinjection has been addressed by PANR.

One injection well per 3 producers is already in the plan, from there it is just engineering and compression horse power, and that horse power will come from, the free of charge surplus gas.

A few words below from PANR in the latest webinar to ease your creative fears.

After that you may like to go make yourself a soda stream, then come back and explain how that flow of gas , driven by pressure differential, must be problematic somehow

https://youtu.be/aisVpzHLnbY?t=4164

1:09:24

David

Do the team see any engineering risks in reinjecting gas into relatively tight Reservoir,

Tony

Say that question again

David

Do you see engineering risks in re-injecting gas, into relatively tight reservoirs

Tony

I do not see the risk as far as re-injecting, obviously we produced uh quite a bit out of the Alkaid number two, but I think what will happen as you mentioned David will probably have a combination of re-injection, we may have to take some of that to some of the more permeable areas of the reservoir, but that's part of the model that'll tell us what we what we need to do with them, so that's part of the task that Schlumberger been given to get on with.

Jay

It'll typically be a horsepower issue

Tony

It will be a horsepower issue

David

Yeah it's more an economic question than it is an engineering question

Tony

OMJim and others should consider the legal decision below , when they next decide to repeat an unfounded accusation, there is legal accountability for deception

A recent Australian case ,involving the use of twitter by @stockswami to make un supported accusations, has been found to be defamation.

https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/legal-experts-say-stock-swami-verdict-highlights-risk-to-twitter-users-20230213-p5cjyv

In the case Mr Davison, 67, was found by Justice Michael Lee to have repeatedly defamed investor and capital markets deal maker Mr Kumova by using Twitter to accuse him of insider trading, misleading investors, a pump and dump, and the provision of inside information.

Nigel H 20:52

Can you back this opinion up.

Reinjection of gas is a well established practice in tight reservoirs, it supports and increases oil recovery.

If it will flow out, it will also flow back in

Part 1

With the re entry and vertical stimulation of the SMDB zone at Alkaid 2 soon upon investors, it is very important to be clear on the objectives. I will qualify this post as an opinion

As stated by PANR it is not to produce a headline (high) flow rate, the objectives are multiple and can be listed

Achieve a reservoir flow

In the last attempt to flow this reservoir at the Talitha well, there was a short period of good frack water flowback , which quickly abated. The theory being there had been some form of blockage responsible, speculation of the reason ranged from, the physical such as sand flow back obstructing the pathways, to chemical reaction between frack fluids and reservoir.

With a change in fluid and additives to frack fluid and proppant sand, both have been compensated for

Collect samples of oil and gas

Again at Talitha only small amounts were recovered and would not have been sufficiently stabilized to be considered truly representative, with a reasonable expectation of a successful stabilized flow test, a true confirmation of the reservoir fluids in the SMDB will occur

Test the new frack design

This is a key outcome. Alkaid 2 achieved a frack efficiency of ~20%, meaning only 20% of the possible design limit was achieved. In the modelling for the economics PANR have assumed they can get to a modest 40% efficiency, as a bench mark in other reservoirs 80% is the target.

If the 40% is achieved in this vertical test, tick that off the risk analysis calculation, as the geology has then proven itself amenable to this generation of fracture design, and can be reasonably extrapolated over the other reservoirs.

Stating it again, this is key, as it proves up the viability at 40% efficiency, where fluids recovery per 1000ft of horizontal doubles, so confirming the economic models are going to be achievable

This fracture can be considered the equivalent of a single stage in the 30 stage Alk2 horizontal, but will have the benefit of the enhanced design, made possible by the data generated from the Alk2 horizontal. To keep it real, it is a cheap bonus test of the new design, Tony Beilman is confident, but it not proven till the results come in

Further to these, the SMDB has better reservoir characteristics in porosity and permeability due to its lower burial depth/compaction and its delta distribution, rather than floor or slope accumulations

Test flowing at a restricted rate, to observe the effect on GOR and decline rate

The intention to restrict/hold back flow has been clearly articulated. They will be in a position to produce at higher rates but choose not to. In production it can be beneficial to produce lower for longer, so achieving a higher ultimate recovery, if the upside is also lower gas production it may be easier to argue for a longer test flow period, under the terms of the existing permit. A large flare is not good PR for the environmental case.

Part 2

Operating on a gravel pad means there is very little seasonal time restriction to consider

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aisVpzHLnbY 27:20

“Jay

And what we're trying to do is determine the efficiency of this new Frac design.

Tony

That's correct we need to find out what the Frack Heights are doing, and how the reservoirs behaving with these new jobs, its not really an idea to maximize production. We're probably going to flow this back slowly, so we can get a better feel for how the fluid's behaving, we're going to run some bottom hole pressure data, so we can see what the reservoir pressure looks like.”

To clarify, when flow is held back, the pressure drop within the reservoir is lower, which means there will be less gas released within the reservoir. Gas released within the reservoir will flow faster than liquids, so will become disproportionate and occupy space in the flow path liquids might other wise occupy, so also reducing liquids flow.

Holding back will alter these in a positive ratio, at the expense of a headline flow rate that could be achieved by lowering reservoir rock fracture face pressure

Again to be clear, once the fluids are out of the reservoir and in the production tubing, they can exsolve without impact as the pressure drops to separator pressure before and beyond the choke, what matters is this does not happen, to such a degree within the reservoir rock matrix in this test. Gently Gently

PVT analysis, in reservoir data is nuts and bolts for the modelling input

Ultimately success in the above will determine which reservoir, gets the confirmatory multi stage horizontal fracture stimulation, and longer term flow test, that will underpin FID on the Aphun project.

My money is on the SMDB being the company maker that pays for all the rest.

OK

Mangrove are up against a register of battle hardened long term fundamental investors, who have always known the knock down in share price was unjustified.

The more easily influenced departed during the short attack campaign, leaving the equivalent of the evolutionary, survival of the fittest on the register. If they did not sell the peak or the trough, not likely to sell here either

With PANR now able to confidently announce to the market, the data that proves the short attack thesis was a misinformation campaign with no merit. The share can now merrily retrace it path back to previous heights and beyond, as it targets the expected $5 to $10 per barrel of sustained market recognition.

There has obviously been a troupe of traders also onboard lately, but they are not the core of the register

Mangrove are up against a register of battle hardened long term fundamental investors, who have always known the knock down in share price was unjustified.

The more easily influenced departed during the short attack campaign, leaving the equivalent of the evolutionary, survival of the fittest on the register. If they did not sell the peak or the trough, not likely to sell here either

With PANR now able to confidently announce to the market, the data that proves the short attack thesis was a misinformation campaign with no merit. The share can now merrily retrace it path back to previous heights and beyond, as it targets the expected $5 to $10 per barrel of sustained market recognition.

There has obviously been a troupe of traders also onboard lately, but the are not the core of the register