RE: Pantheon30 Jun 2023 01:56
I am convinced the market got this one wrong, is it fair to discount a share, that effectively declared ~2 billion barrels of discovered recoverable oil, is going to be lucrative to the owner.
Then proposes to value add by going into production itself, rather than discover, prove and sell, at a huge discount to current value of the resource, as the current players will take advantage if they are allowed to. That is a pure commercial reality, only intense competitive tension will mitigate, it may evolve but better to be in control yourself.
What is required to get there
$20m for a pipe line and hot tap connection to TAPs, this cuts out the middle man (Hilcorp ?) who has a vested interest in keeping PANR poor, and can do so by leveraging the cost of entry to TAPs through their facilities. Also with a pipeline the condensate and NGLs that have higher vapor pressure can also be connected to TAPs directly, rather than the considerable cost of onsite storage, and handling of pressurized flammable liquids.
$20m for adding condensate and NGL stripping capacity to the current oil processing plant. Which has been disclosed to be designed to handle the production of 6 wells, say 6000 bpd Then another $20 to 30m for the first well or couple of wells, so spend $70m over the next ~2 years and have 2 wells in production, that will quickly repay capital, and return $80m to the coffers over their lifecycle. From that point at $13m per additional well, with each returning $40m it grows exponentially
Some may have wanted a very direct, Alkaid 2 data has proven the reservoir to be highly lucrative, ( that may still come). But considering PANR has just laid out a timelined plan to spend $40m on infrastructure to process and transport hydrocarbon liquids from the Aphun discovery, it is pretty much the same thing.
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