State of Play14 Apr 2018 13:19
O k so now I am on board I have been thinking through likely scenarios:
1) Nice and easy (unlikely in real life!) State Govt grants the mining licence in the next few weeks with no need for PAT to go to court again. Tranche 3 becomes payable at 65c per share and, in theory, SP should at least double. PAT have already said they will concentrate this year on maximising their smaller stakes in W African cos. I would expect it to be too early to do much except plan for the main helping. Might cash in on the publicity by raising the cash it will need by means of a Placing.
2) State Govt does nothing. The Court Order (which I have not seen and probably could not decipher) indicates that PAT has leave to reapply if State Govt refuses to grant the licence and indicates an apparently non-mandatory timeframe of 3mths which expires about now. So how long does PAT wait beyond the three months and if there is no actual refusal, what can they do? We are not told but as an English trained lawyer (retired!) my best guess is at a certain point (6mths?) make two alternative applications to the court - the first asking the court to order by injunction that the State Govt decide one way or the other (retaining the leave to reapply if they refuse the licence) - the second requesting the State Govt to give its reasons for delay and a final decision date or face a substantial fine for contempt of court. By the time PAT has waited, and sought specialist advice and made the applications and got a hearing date, we could be into 9-12 months delay.
Of course, it is more or less in the price (and massive spread) at present. Option 1 will see a quick jump, probably followed by a dip on the expected Placing. Option 2 will see the usual AIM drift, possibly with a tighter spread as time goes by towards a resolution and it becomes more well-known as a casino chip.
AND Jolly Good Luck to us all !!!