Member Info for Okehurst1

Captain, if it’s going to happen it has to be this week - EU update due

Of course a punt but IF EU HUA is secured we should see a decent rerate, Colin can then release his Q&A and the market will look past it - it just will as Omega will be the first U.K. diagnostic company with HUA EU

I don’t think anyone can say Colin has delivered up to now, however I think we have to get this next week out of the way to see if we are the updated list… or not.

From a biotech point of view we know the Mologic buffer is decent and just importantly targets the N protein spike, we have been informed that the user- ability of the LFT is good, there is no technical reason we won’t clear EU HUA

Risk / reward of course but we get a serious upward rerate before Xmas IF we secure

We clear HUA / Fit travel … plenty of demand, more than ever - you can’t use the freebies to travel
Plus EU to go for

But we need clearance …

Good point Simon
Plus install costs

There may be extra cost for the wrapping kit / machinery that followed on but marginal.

With us moving to Level 4 it’s only LFT’s that will give us a chance to avoid a full lockdown - here and Europe

Let’s hope we get clearance this week, the fact we are targeting the N spike / ‘ our’ biotech cleared EU regulators last week and we have a study on user-ability, put aside Gates influence, we may just get a rerate to the upside RNS this week

We are going to be ridiculously cheap at £44M m/cap with 100M capacity, not without risk but at 24p it’s a decent punt

https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1470074393430827013?s=10

We just need that regulatory clearance, the opportunity is huge

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-daily-lateral-flow-testing-for-double-jabbed-contacts-of-coronavirus-cases-to-start-on-tuesday-12493836

As you say Simon grey area’s, I wonder if this is why the Q&A has not been released as yet?

At £44M m/cap , Omega are looking like a decent punt IF they can get EU HUA over the line, CTDA helps as well.

Some merits in acquiring DAM down the road, once £revenues are being generated from Covid, suggest having DAM on the Omega BoD’s would be an advantage, deal to be done there one day.

Good point Blades

Toshiba were paid to install the machinery, so cost there to remove , then what do the DHSC do with it? Give it to the Chinese?What do they charge it out for ?
Put aside the political angle it’s extremely doubtful this will happen when the DHSC can benefit from the kit in the future.

So it appears Omega BoD have control of the £17M of kit but we are unclear can we bring this onto our balance sheet, ditto they have 2 legal cases directly / indirectly with the DHSC, one as the plaintiff for £65Ok , the other as the recipient for £2.5M

Kind of sums up where we are by the looks of things

Mute point , guess GAD in same situation

Considering it’s a big item ( £17M ) it would be helpful if the Company could explain how this asset will be treated on the balance sheet ? Extremely material.

It does appear Omega have the benefit of the kit in lieu of the contract period expired - kit not collected - and as Captain says IF they can negotiate a settlement on the £2.5M deal it’s a canny transaction

Appreciate it’s IF’s/ But’s - for debate

The £10M ex Covid sales @ 50% could well see us close to breakeven cash wise on a monthly basis / taking the view the margin returns to 50% as indicated as no further DHSC set up costs

With a m/cap of £44M IF the £17M kit can be brought onto the balance sheet plus cash in hand, plus the value of the Food Tolerance division -which apparently is the only business with HUA in China - even if on 2X revenue which seems cheap we hit our £44M current m/cap, give or take were our broker values the business ex Covid sales?

EU HUA / CTDA revenue becomes pure bunce cash wise / share price

Got me thinking how did Omega enjoy an £8M banking facility ? There were no tangible assets of note to cover £8M

Omega knowing they have the £17M of kit they can use as security with the bank ? Bank excepted in principle?

So in effect Omega are arguing the toss over the £2.5M, string that out and eventually cut a deal - DHSC owe Omega £650K via Abingdon , different case mind but we could looking at £1.85M worse case on the cash from vs £17M assets with a ‘ value’ to securitise with the banks plus we get the use of the same

The core business is generating £10M p/a at 50% gross albeit the first 26 weeks this year this dropped to 30% due to DHSC set up costs

DAM / EU HUA etc all bunce on top

Captain, been mulling stuff/ data over, think your right
Re the £2.5M for £17M of kit and yes a canny bit of business if it can pulled off.

Profit - agree on the £cash

£10M ex Covid @ 50% gross should come close to covering costs - margin will return from 30 % ish - the 20% on the £5M doing the trick.

Assume we clear HUA then we should a decent gross margin ,this of course being the bunce - here’s hoping

We can look back and cringe / smile and cry all at the same time that we were being pumped by Lord Bethell with Tweets like below just 12 weeks ago, pity he lost his phone and his WhatsApp messages

This is what we have been up against

https://twitter.com/jimbethell/status/1437389424770404352?s=10

Never say never … personally I think the BoD will do commercial deals with other entities other than DAM

Fortunately it won’t be Colin doing the negotiating and we have to hope Landown take a percentage so it’s in their interest to negotiate as best a market price as they can

Not without risk but with HUA then Omega can still make $$ from Covid, we just need that break.

On a lighter note, if Omega come across a one man band who has an office at home based within social housing and his business was set up 2 weeks ago with £200 of capital and this guy says he can get us a contract with the Government guaranteed payment … I hope Colin takes it, may well be the bloke who owned Innova U.K. and generated £3.3B of sales.

The life of Colin

If anything positive can be gleaned from today then
Colin / Omega BoD are now under no illusions to just focus on commercials with DAM which has to be better margins than the DHSC.

Of course they require EU HUA so a lot resting on this one.

Still questions to be answered by Colin but let’s get pushing Landown to line up more commercial deals whilst we await clearances, get those orders in line.

One comment made me smile, it’s a good point

Gist - the U.K. Government is now in a legal dispute with
three of the UK’s quoted diagnostic businesses ,whilst the Chinese fill their boots

Arguably only Avacta left to pick a fight with?

What a shambles !

Not sure if the Tories give a toot but show of support from Neale Hanvey MP

https://twitter.com/jnhanvey/status/1469344259157463045?s=10

That news was without doubt newsworthy and allowed insiders to trade

Why did the BoD wait until the interims which was almost
2 months away ?Then say they contacted the DHSC the day before interims to check on the status ?

No wonder the Q&A hasn’t been published yet , Omega Company lawyers will be be all over it, did the Board seek legal advice on the 1st Oct or just sit on the news/ head down ?

Mentioned this the other week, there has been a false market in ODX shares for that give or take 2 month period

Any other views on this point ? Am I missing something ?

MiKODX

We need that £17M of kit, it’s key to capacity

Comp,
I don’t always agree with all your comments - I never filter anyone , enjoy the debate

Your spot on … they knew 1st October but in the interim RNS they said they checked the day before ?

What happens to the £17M of kit ?

Regulator any thoughts ?