Member Info for Okehurst1

M/pink

Think I am a balanced poster, had time to digest the sudden departure of Colin and appointment of Jag as the new CEO

Was he the best man for the job ? Did they employ a recruitment specialist and run a process ?
I doubt it.

Coupled with Jag having been the commercial director throughout the 2 years of Covid, exactly what did he achieve for Omega ? Last we heard £1.2M of sales and £650k of that is in dispute with the DHSC - put aside his timely share sales

Re Omega as an diagnostic engineering business

I don’t think any of us shareholders doubt their ability to produce LFT’s, it appears it was GAD that failed the Userability element with the Mologoc biotech, not Omega

Looks that way

Getting close to the anniversary of the directors en masse exercising options and selling into the market up to 92p over a number of daya and at the same time a ramp up in their tweets promoting Omega

Let’s not forget ‘ our Jag ‘ was in there getting his slug away
and his title was ‘ commercial director ‘
The more I look into this guy the more I lose faith, exactly what was his role as ‘ commercial director ‘ ?

Alongside the sales director - who did nothing - what did Jag actually deliver other than a few quid for himself ?

Painful lesson



https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ODX/directorpdmr-shareholding-5x3aax43g2zz82a.html

Mars

Our assets may be more valuable to savvy operators than going nowhere with this BoD - based on performance last 20 months

Excluding the Chairman who to be fair is relatively new

All conjecture of course if the BoD just want to eek out a salary with no risk to their own capital.

They track record has been to buy low - including Jag - sell high, without doubt the best traders of the stock and super rampers to boot

If a realistic bid did come in, think we can say the PI’s would all sell , with no institutional investors and the BoD having very little equity of note it’s probably our best bet.

When you step back and look at the manufacturing capacity of Alva / the engineering DNA / pedigree in Alva/ within Omega, CD4 with HUA China , throw in the only WHO approved HIV LFT, it highlights how uncommercial/ savvy the BoD have been managing the assets for the shareholders, including the £Funds raised in the placing at the start of Covid

Based on track record and Jag was part of the problem I just hope the assets are sold to a better custodian who can extract value and preserve jobs / invest wisely.

I have low expectations from the BoD cando so.

Captain

Agree there is a chance this will be the outcome - they plod on, draw their salaries, which is the worse case for shareholders.

Think am hoping the Chairman who is relatively new to the BoD considers the shareholders and his personal CV accounts for something - to him

Just throwing some numbers at this one, pure speculation.
If he could extract a 4X forward Rev valuation for CD4 which seems reasonable for a Wellness product with HUA China to boot, that could get us closer to the 30p/35p depending on growth for 2022 ? If 2021 was £10M Rev can we do 2022 £15M ?

Then the manufacturing capacity / Alva, who would buy this ? Chinese who secure continued U.K. government contracts like Innova who nicked another £330M of contracts last week?
It would be a smart political move by a Chinese operator as commercials they can produce so cheaply in China but it may suit them to utilise Alva for part of the process?

We may get our 40p back - on a very good day

What are the RNS catalysts for an upward re rate ?

CTDA ? Doubt it
EU HUA would certainly help
Manufacturing contract ? Doubtful we can beat the Chinese
on price ?This may also include a heavily discounted fund raise

Or

Omega announce they are selling CD4 / manufacturing capacity IF we can find buyers at right price

Suggest potentially a higher rerate on the latter, no fund raise etc

Let someone else with a bit more commercial nous / deeper pockets than the Omega BoD work the assets.

Arguably the Chairman is the best representation the shareholders have on the Board ,the CEO’s first call to the Company - appreciate the Chairman has fiduciary duties but in this case whilst we are still solvent he has to consider his shareholders / owners of the business which is us the PI’s

EU HUA would be so helpful to put a floor on the almost daily drop since Xmas

https://twitter.com/bishop5022/status/1486435467600056320?s=10

Max, the Chairman is relatively new to the Board, Tbf he genuinely does require the benefit of the doubt, if anyone does?

Comp

Colin was on £200,000 a year - how that salary was justified I’ve no idea ?

Big $$ in Alva , am not sure he jumped and walked away from £200k p/a plus the fact a non exec went same time ?

Note
Validation

Could we enjoy revenue growth of CD4 in partnership with DAM? And how big is that market?

We will do £10M CD4 in 2021 , what would be considered decent growth for 2022? £15M?
Is that possible ? Can we hold the 55% gross margin ?

If we can then on £15M we may generate a small profit at EBITA level

It then comes back to Covid testing next Autumn/ Winter and can we secure valuation ? Will there be requirement for testing ? None of us really know.

The bunce for Omega is Covid testing and utilising the kit / infrastructure.

Comp,

Don’t think anyone can argue with your post, fully agree about us PI’s and our posts .we have been well and truly ‘kippered ‘ by the BOD , they were the ‘ super rampers’

The tweet below says it all

It’s a lesson learnt by myself and I guess many more?

Re The New CEO, the Chairman ideally should have managed both roles and advised the market they were out looking for the best available candidate, as such we just don’t know if Jag is the best CEO for Omega, it’s not been tested.

The Chairman has probably needed Jag’s vote help to kick Colin and the non exec director hence we didn’t go to the market.

https://twitter.com/simonha56798569/status/1486269607753269251?s=10

TW,
The Chairman is running this one, Jag was a name to put to the CEO role.

Agree we should really give Jag the benefit of doubt but did Omega go out into the market place and make the call Jag was the best man for the job? I doubt it.

Colin was booted out and the Chairman appointed Jag probably based on a agreement with other Board members - including Jag - that Jag would take the CEO role if they voted for Colin to leave the Board

If current Amigo shareholders will only enjoy 5% of the post raise equity - before buying more in the raise

Then at say £14M m/cap today that would value the 95% equity at £266M combined £280M on a like for like basis

That’s the part I just don’t get, either the £14M m/cap has to fall or the market values Amigo post raise at £280M

Amigo m/cap can’t stay at £14M before the new money unless I am missing something ?

Amigo - that’s another one am down on

Any ideas?

Agree, looks like Omega will survive.

Anyone got a view on what the 5% will be worth m/cap wise pro rata - after the 19 - 1 ?

Assume the scheme is agreed

So if we have 475M shares currently then Amigo end up with close to 10B shares based on 19:1

If existing shareholders will have 5% of the enlarged equity and current m/cap is £17M that would value the business post fund raise at £340M - on a like for like basis

Any other take on that? Am I missing something ?

Suggest we ideally require the following info;

investment required per new Ingenuity client
Timeline to recoup the above
Estimated lifetime return per client ( 10 years )

Appreciate it’s a grey science but THG will know the above based on current trends but they may wish to retain for management eyes only / plus investment house insiders/ shareholders

Beauty / Nutrition is market sentiment driven but the above has serious potential value but the market needs to understand the above to place a value on Ingenuity- which is currently zero

Danl,

I enjoy reading your posts/ views, be it here or Boo/ ASOS
Ditto Kalls counter argument, it’s good that you guys now debate without any personal comments.

Personally I can’t see investor sentiment to buy into THG changing materially to the upside until Beauty is spun off, if there was a buyer at the right price then sell Nutrition and Ingenuity becomes a standalone business possibly with a Nasdaq quote

Re Ingenuity , the market currently can’t evaluate its cash requirement ditto current cash burn, as such at group level we are being valued at 10X EBITA plus cash.

Use the cash from the sale of Nutrition to fund Ingenuity - not sure what value for nutrition ?

Suggest this is the catalyst to turn sentiment and unlock value