Member Info for Okehurst1

Smoke and Mirrors again by Omega

We don’t have a test filed to the FDA

Mologic do

Post that trial Omega submitted EU HUA and advised investors was the ‘ last piece of the jigsaw ‘

Marik

They spilt responsibility,

Mologic USA
Omega EU

Reason being ? GAD kit looks like it failed at PD - not the biotech
This came out recently via a separate study

Omega then funded a trial in Ulster on a user ability

TW
We have learnt this after Ulster ease of use trial

Omega won’t be able to sell their test in USA without themselves going through FDA validation

We could manufacture for Mologic but they have GAD

It’s worth pointing out

It won’t be ‘ our ‘ test in the USA even if it did pass the FDA
It’s Mologic’s - they focused on USA , Omega EU

Then we are down to manufacturing the kit here - who knows at what margin - in Mologics name and shipping to USA

Same time Mologic have a state of the art factory in the U.K.
- GAD - sitting idle, they will fill that capacity before we get a gig manufacturing low margin cassettes for them

Another example of Twitter news from Omega that wasn’t factual in the end

But we don’t have infinite cash reserves, that’s the problem

We just don’t have an antigen test to sell today and we haven’t for the last near on 22 months

In the meantime the Chinese are picking up business - probably on price as much as anything
Innova £750M in January alone from U.K. Government

If I thought there was a chance we could secure approvals and land contracts like above I would be fully behind the move but without a test we are going nowhere with Covid testing

Retain HIV tests - we did £137k in H1 last year
we may do £800k in 2022
Move the production to Cambridge

Marik

We may secure EU HUA , who knows ?
USA is professional use only - Company advises

What happens if we don’t get clearance ?

I had the same positivity as yourself up until start of the year, how long do we wait ? It’s been almost 2 years now and we have collected £600,000 from Covid Testing

Personally my view is walk away from the roulette table, focus on what we know we can manufacture / sell.

Marik

I am on the fence re the Action Group but take your points on board.

The BoD have very little credibility with the market it seems at even 5p a share, what is the reason for a raise ? Institutions will ask that question?

The BoD have no commercial reason - we don’t have an antigen test to sell

Alva is the problem, no revenue of note - we did £137,000 HIV LFT’s H1 2021 - relatively high fixed costs

However our Cambridge site producing Health / Wellness products may well do £10M to £12M gross this year at 50% gross ( possibly ) and could benefit from a focused management team and further investment in Sales / Marketing - marketing costs running at 16% of sales

Sell Alva as a going concern / asset sale to an operator who can make it work be that Chinese / whoever

Reinvest in Cambridge, dust down the plans to move to a bigger site in the area

No need for a raise / dilution
Exit loss making division
Fund /Focus on the only division generating growth that is in a decent market being health / wellness and can make good margins

The share price would jump on this news and all stake holders benefit including Alva employees / suppliers, the former must be concerned about their job security ?

Every one wins

Without a Covid test to sell this is the only solution

You couldn’t make it up just how inefficient this BoD actually are on pretty much every level

TW, many of us down to ‘ sunk cost ‘ now
No way would I put more money into a placing / rights issue

It would be the end of our Chairman securing another seat on another board , total embarrassment for him

That’s his career done

Thanks TW

Picked up on the £400M Innova but didn’t pick up that they nicked £3/4B

So close on to £1B placed for LFT’s in January

Omega scratching around trying to sell 100M shares at 5p

Instead of 100M LFT’s

TW
Fair comment on the action group, just the threat of one could make the BoD think twice

Re legal advice

Point being I doubt the last crew took advice over their ramping on Twitter , they just let rip

The BoD in place will be more aware, the Tweets are over, mission accomplished though for directors who sold especially the marketing director and Jag they sold out at 90p a share

It’s heads down now and get that £5M @ 5p a share in with no legal recourse, that’s their game plan

Good money after bad Captain - £5M raise

They have to bite the bullet at Alva and get shut , it’s the only way to avoid massive dilution , however it’s not in the BoD’s interest to, raising £5M is the easy way out for them
keeps them living Alva .

No Institution will touch them at the moment with a shareholder action group trying to get the numbers to call an EGM

It’s been a salutary lesson for me personally, not to trust AIM companies information via Tweets / social media

RNS only and even then be carful

5 directors have jumped ship during this fiasco

Marketing director / Chairman / CEO/ CFO / non exec director, it’s quite a bunch

The current BoD will be taking regular advice off their NOMAD and Company Lawyer, without doubt they are exposed as is the company

The rampy tweets under the new crew have gone, it’s now all about managing expectations and getting the £5M into the account - when they can - to ensure they avoid their final accounts not being signed off by the auditors

As a publicly limited company on AIM they would have to suspend the shares IF they missed their deadline date and worse case the AIM team can insist the shares are de listed

I am not saying this will happen just pointing out the BoD are on thin ice here , they don’t need the £cash today but they may need to get the full year accounts signed off - unqualified is the technical phrase in point

All comes back to the cost of keeping Alva open just in case they have a test to sell and they can land contracts

Am on the fence about the action group - pro’s & con’s

However if the claim is correct they have 5% of the voting rights then they only need to hit 10% and they can call an EGM

Am not sure if that’s ever been achieved before by PI’s
‘Joining ‘ to bring the BoD to account in the same way institutional investors would?

The group wouldn’t be asking for BoD representation- doubt it - am guessing it’s more about accountability by the BoD

Just the threat of an EGM may well make the BoD think twice before issuing another 100M shares @ 5p to their family / friends and offer the full pro rata to existing shareholders first ?

‘ abusive relationship ‘

Two words sum it up

Cross read to Abingdon to give us an idea

This company is like Omega’s twin brother, just as ugly and destroyer of shareholder value

£6M recent raise - I think they raised £20M when the IPO’d just over a year ago but like Omega raising £12M they burnt through that due to no revenue

So say £6M in bank from raise and cash in hand at time
£6M owed by DHSC - they will owe a bit of this to the RTA partners
Similar capacity to Omega 100M plus a year LFT’s
Neither have a test to sell to today - of note

Abingdon M/cap today about £19M

If investors think their £6M DHSC money is collectible then the Going Concern ex cash is being valued at £7M

Omega could have £7M in the bank post a raise

I would argue Omega’s Going Concern could be valued a bit higher due to their Cambridge site producing Health/ Wellness products

But on a straight line basis looking at Abingdon today we may only be £14M m/cap post raise / dust settles - worth reviewing the Abingdon share price Pre / post raise

Captain, think you are correct with your posts - theme

Re the cash burn over the past few months, my view I think a good chunk was for inventory

If Omega have ‘significant’ £cash why raise more money @ 5p a share ?

Due to the £10M p/a of revenue from Health / Wellness which could be generating 50% gross depending where they book marketing costs which are now 16% of sales as they expand this division , this cash being generated is keeping the lights on so to speak
Nb they had a margin of 67% 2019 the most recent GP’s are all over the place so room for error to the downside on my 50% GP …
This product is produced in Cambridge

They also have a contract for £800,000 for HIV tests - product produced in Alva
This is all Alva can be working on bar maybe a small amount of low margin contract work/ packaging for Orient Gene which they have mentioned and possibly some tests for DAM in Europe , they have no Covid test of note to sell in large quantities
So in 2 years of Covid , £12M of new shareholder cash injected into the business over that time they produced £600,000 - historically - of Covid testing cash , we know this because they told us.

Alva is the problem, not Cambridge, Health /Wellness division has potential, but the BoD live in Scotland, they need Alva open to justify their residence and I think this is the root of the problem

They ( Omega ) don’t need the cash today, Cambridge is supporting Alva, they have a group £loss per month which they can cover ,they want the £5M so they have headroom / clear the auditors report as a going concern - one eye on the £2.5M DHSC claim - and they can keep Alva open hoping that one day the Mologic test will clear validation in the EU / anywhere and they can land sales to justify their commercial logic and life ticks on for them - with the £5M @5p in the bank
The day they start drawing the overdraft then it’s monthly management accounts to the bank as well, anyone who has been in that situation would rather avoid.

Hence the silence from Jag , what can he say ? There is no plan B, which should be dispose of Alva reinvest the proceeds in Cambridge, no requirement to issue 100M new shares at a 90% discount to the last placement

The BoD don’t give a toot about the shareholders it’s all about their position.

CTDA is dead in the water , test to travel had gone
Mologic failed at Porton Down

That leaves EU HUA … that’s it

They just let can’t go, like the gambler coming back to the roulette table for one more spin

We generated £600,000 net receivables over 2 years of Covid ( we got paid for our product )

Call it a day with Covid testing