Member Info for Ojay

C/S: Exactly the way I see it.

There are a lot more shares in issue than 2 years ago, i.e. more speculative and short term investors. Add that to PM's bang up job before Mike Buck entered the scene and you get quite an amount of trigger happy sellers who substantially impact the daily trading picture at these low volumes.

I have no doubt that the SP will rise far beyond 6p up to spud as soon as the mass better understands the upcoming events and the respective investment opportunity.

ATB

From my modest POV I assume the AIM market reacts to the following:

1. When will the drilling operation take place? Current status: Q2; precise date unknown.
2. Everything in place for the execution of the pre-announced drilling programme? Current status: Everything in place with the exception of the rig contract; according to PM this is in its final stage.
3. COS? Status: very high, i.e. 75%; due to the proximity to producing wells considered to be appraisal wells
4. Drill programme (4 drills) funded? Status: Yes
5. Conclusion of rig contract and announcement of spud date: Unknown.
5. Need for additional funding for the pre-announced drilling programme: status: None.
6. Potential oil find if successful: Read "Mr. Positive"'s posts of today.

GLA

Hamiwa123: You could be right; however, even if the spud date should be early May you can be sure that most of us investors will be more than happy!
ATB to all!

Whichever way Capt'n your guesswork over the last couple of months has been pretty much on target which - I must admit - has not always been to the liking of PM investors; may be luck may be not. I assume however, your guesswork has helped you take advantage of PM's lowest sp and now you're going for glory. Good for you and good for all other PM investors.

One thing appears to be for sure: This is by far not the end of the SP story this year. Looking forward to PM's RNS regarding rig contract and spud date. That will finally initiate the sp fireworks!

Capt. Stanley seems to have an excellent feeling for what is currently going on with PM's sp.
@7.11 this morning, he forecasted today's blue outcome:

"Sorry Degsy but todays a nailed on blue day, Monday too. And if the drill rig contract RNS comes next week. Well...."

All I can say is:
1. Sorry Degsy.
2. I hope CS is right and we investors see this share price rise according to his expert "market feelings".

Excitement is justified.

GLA

looks like the sellers are not taking your advice (brain scanning).

the MMs want to maintain a wide spread. I thought this trading system was automated!

At the risk of sounding like a ramper I would like to point out that the 38p this share reached at the end of February 2017 was based on
- 100% ownership for PM (like today)
- 1 single drill pre-announced for July 2017 with uncertain (insufficient) funding - unlike today having 4 fully funded appraisal or appraisal-like drills
- Clearly, the amount of issued shares was about half (unlike today)
- The pre-announced drill was a wildcat - unlike today where we have a COS of 75%

As mentioned on this board previously the current situation - as everybody can see - is substantially better than 2 years ago.

The bets are on.

All the best to all serious investors.

strictlyinc: I agree - and hope you're right. I'll be waiting as well.

BTW: There are obviously posters here (e.g. Bugsy Malone) who - even after tens of thousands of posts - still seem to be looking for a good reason to invest in an AIM listed company. That will probably take another 26,690 posts!

Congrats to your low entry Bishand - looks like you're doing just fine.

Mike31: If you had said that at the end of January I "probably" would've agreed. Looks completely different to me now. As I said just minutes ago any news regarding the conclusion of rig contracts and confirmation of spud date will have a positive impact on the SP. I don't believe we will have to wait "post April" for that.

may be and whatever PM's history may look like: Petro Matad remains to be an attractive investment for reasons repeatedly mentioned on this BB. Every investor will set up his/her personal risk/reward equation. I have made mine and - based on that - am looking forward to a SP which will be - come spud - multiples of what it is now. We are talking about 2-3 months. For many AIM investors that may be too long to wait; they'd rather jump ship now for a small profit which is fine.
I for one expect PM's news and their announcement of the spud date to jump start a buying frenzy which will take the SP to double digits.

Clearly we investors would like to see an uninterrupted sp rise to spud - and beyond. The reality is however, that continuous rises - sooner or later - result in downward corrections. From my modest POV that shouldn't make us nervous. We know now what the market is - justifiably - prepared to pay for matad's shares at this level and particularly at this time, i.e. about 2.5 months before the anticipated spud date - which as I recall should be end of April / beginning of May. Once the drill contract and spud date confirmations are published the demand for PM shares is likely to rise substantially.
As C/S has repeatedly (and correctly) mentioned: Time will tell - while the overall situation looks very promising.

Correct shan90 - June 11 2018 was "not long ago" - even if some posters want everybody to think it's been ages.

C/S: A good question indeed.
The "real" question, however, has little to do with what a fair price should be. As we all know, the AIM market follows its own uncalculable rules governed by expectation, potential, dreams etc. Those emotions appear to be justified when looking at matad's drilling schedule starting end of April '19 and particularly its overall potential. The sp could rise substantially higher than the 5p or 8p you mention. But as you correctly point out: Not long to find out.

Seems to me some investors want to get their feet in the door before it's too late. As opulentia just mentioned today a re-rate will happen - but when?

Just trying to get rid of the dithery investors at a low sp. Better we take a blow now than in 2 months time! Let the undecided and weak investors who sell now bleed. They won't know what hit them once the drilling begins - let alone when the oil strike happens!

selling all you've got! There's no point in waiting for the sp to get any better - we all know it won't right? So do it now or bust! You can thank me later for this invaluable advice.

Manro: Thx for your response.
I agree that searching for oil over 10 years in a country which should be loaded with it makes you really wonder (and suffer!). I have always said and still firmly believe that PM will strike oil - the only question which remains is WHEN. After more than 10 years of unsuccessful drilling you've got to be surprised that this company is still alive and kicking. The way I (and the way I believe Mike B. sees it) - the successful strike will need to happen this year. Luckily, PM has finally zero-ed in on the drill locations which promise the most likely success...FINALLY! The chances of striking oil in those areas are VERY HIGH as (not only!) I see it. Being invested in PM at this point is extremely attractive. A strike - even if it's low volume - could slingshot PM's SP into spheres much higher than the ones we've seen in February 2017. It would instantly turn PM's current business into a completely different ball game.
The risk of a no-find remains. However, I still believe the chances of success are NOW better than ever.

Be there or be square.

GL to everybody!

SuperRoty: Thx for prompting me.
Offloading? Should have - in February 2017!
Still hanging in there - so nothing to worry about.
Guess there's not a lot I can contribute to the board at this time; licking my wounds as many other PIs probably are.
After 2018 (which couldn't have ended much worse) I'm very hopeful for 2019.
GL to all LTHs!