George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
I don’t see how another company in bankruptcy holding our shares advances our cause. If it were a private investor or profitable co, I’d agree it’s good news. This is not, unless I’m missing something.
I’ve been saying for a while that Origin will be the buyer of FO. This is just one more step forward in that process. I still feel the deal will be done before the play is fully valued and the timing of this announcement supports this thesis. The major shareholders appear to support POQ, so while I’m frustrated with how he is communicating with the market, remain hopeful there is something positive coming sooner than we’d expect. I do still feel we’ll be offered a combination of cash & stock in either Origin, or perhaps a new co that will develop the Beetaloo. Still feel it will be around $1USD. I bought more at the recent lows.
Poods - you’re not the only one voting against the resolutions. My 1M+ shares were all voted against.
Wetwater : My thoughts exactly. Strategically, Origin will want to control 100% of the asset. Being an early mover has its advantages if they feel future drilling will have a relatively predictable outcome. To your point, I would not be surprised if they already have a “back of napkin” bid pending the confirmation of results for this well if liquids are confirmed. That said it could also be why POQ stated a year ago that this years AGM would have a lot of smiles in the room. We all expected drilling to have resumed much earlier after the moratorium was lifted and if it would have, we likely would have had results on this well and perhaps would have been discussing a buyout offer at the AGM. We’re a few months off the original projected timelines on where we would have hoped to be by this time. As such, I still feel very confident this will have a very pleasant outcome. Just need the drilling results to confirm.
Darnitagain....and where would find this information?
I’ve posted on this a number of times this year. Analysis of all details that are public suggest this stock should be trading much, much higher. The global Stock Market is at or near record high, moratorium resolved, access issue resolved, drilling resumed, drilling update positive, Origin stock up, other regional exploration company’s stock up....and we set a new 52 week low. Why...simple manipulation. Some may say the forced selling is the reason, but the $ are simply insignificant to hold this back with all other positive info. 18M shares @ .20 is $3.6M on a potential $1B asset....seems unlikely.
I still feel our stock is being intentionally suppressed while the bit is turning and when Origin has the data they need to value this play to their satisfaction, an offer will be made to take us out to control the asset. We are being held in a very tight range. Not diving....but not going up. Without momo players, volume is anemic, price flat. Very boring and off the radar. Keeping a lid on this keeps the traders away and eliminates a big run up that could be higher than Origin is prepared to pay. This situation isn’t fair.... but its how the stock market works. Based upon what we know, if this well confirms liquids, we get taken out by May. If not, expect this to go lower and the wait will continue. Using a quote from Warren Buffett, “buy when they cry; sell when they yell”. Therefore here is your opportunity to accumulate or top off. Otherwise, the only strategy here is to turn the computer off, relax and enjoy Xmas and look forward to a 2020 buyout! Best wishes to all!!
Or to be more specific....is this valuation for FOG?
Theknight2020,
Can you please confirm the scope of this report? Specifically what acreage is this valuation based on?
Thanks in advance.
Poods,
With my theory, I don’t believe there is an “overhang” trade to deal with. If that were the fact, I’m sure it would have been settled. Many speculated we’d see meaningful appreciation when we commenced drilling. I stated if that happened, my theory would be debunked. We haven’t broke out of the tight technical range we’ve held for months. Why?...because a party is holding us here. There is nothing POQ can do in this scenario. Promoting will not help....since the controlling party will continue to release just enough shares to keep us in this range. Until we break out, traders won’t jump in....long term holders like me have acquired over 10+ years and hold as much or probably more than one should. As such....here we are. Waiting for a buyout that could come sooner than some anticipate or wait for another 18 months. I’m in it until it’s over at this point. While I’m not concerned about the current SP, I’d like this to be over sooner than later. This has been dead money for far too long while the stock market has performed very well over this period. As such, I’d be happy to have Origin buy us out in an all stock offer. Would give us all the ability to then stay in and participate as this moves to commercialization or take your money off the table. The story will unfold...the only unknown is the timing.
Or door number 3 and there’s a party purposefully keeping just enough pressure on this stock to keep the value suppressed and under the radar until results are confirmed, thereby making a bid look more attractive to long term holders. I feel if this was a distressed large seller, a call to Cenkos could arrange a buyer for the holding. With the stage we’re at, it really shouldn’t be hard to find a party who would like to participate in this play at a 24 month low. The current share price and monthly volume is simply insignificant to a wealthy private investor. RBC put a value on us at around $0.60 before the moratorium....so I don’t think someone feels we’re overvalued, especially in light of the encouraging results of our current well. I still feel Origin will be first mover to control the entire play if results are in line with expectations. A low share price will make an offer look attractive, especially if it’s 5 times the current share price. My 2 cents.
Well stated and further supports my theory that price is being intentionally suppressed to make any buyout offer look attractive. If my idea of Origin being first mover holds true, I think POQ is looking out more for Origin than us. Who knows what sort of quid pro quo arrangement may be in place.
Darnitagain - I totally agree with you and want the best deal possible. I just feel there is appetite from long term holders to have a tangible deal that offers short term and long term benefits. I don’t feel Inpex will pay a premium with only a couple of wells. I’d really like to be proven wrong! Either way, I’d like to enter 2020 knowing for certain my 12 year investment is worth significantly more than it is today!
Darnitagain
1 - Origin has market advantage of all current data including well in progress. Move first, pay fair price, control 100% of asset.
2 - Prove asset with venture cap assistance or minority interest. Learn more about asset to determine most prospective area.
3 - Sell large portion of proven asset at premium. Use funds to develop retained asset.
Of course this is all speculation but would be my playbook if I were in a position to advise. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
If this becomes a reality, I’m sure Cenkos would have a detailed transition plan for investors outside of Aus.
I know we all want more, but the early mover math would say fair. There is still risk and significant capital required to prove up the resource. People would have to continue to hold to see full value. And that’s ok if offered a choice.... It satisfies the needs of those who want their money now or have the patience to wait for more results. I’ve been here for 12 years, have a significant holding and would honestly like to take some money off the table.
We don’t have the cash to participate in sharing drilling costs beyond the fully carried portion of the program and doing a raise with our current share value simply dilutes value for long term holders.
As such I’d be happy to have the proposed offer to consider.
My theory still holds true. A party is intentionally keeping FOG pinned while we wait for drilling results. Origin are near 52 week high...us low. Why? Because someone wants us under the radar and as low as possible for take out. I still feel Origin will be the first mover on taking out FOG to control the entire play and keeping our shares suppressed makes any deal look attractive. Like others have stated a cash & stock deal would be great and would satisfy those who want out now...or hang on to see the asset put into production, should this prove commercial. Again, I feel it would be in the interest of the purchasing party to do a deal early, while there is still risk to get our portion for the best price. As such, if liquids are confirmed on this well, look to this being buttoned up by year end. My guess is Origin offers $1 AUD cash + 10:1 stock. Would not surprise me if a deal is already agreed to and we are just waiting for results. Thus virtual radio silence from both parties. Interesting times...
Don’t be surprised if the first real news we hear is that Origin has made an offer for our 30%. The more I think about this the more it makes sense.
- who controls Informaton flow - Origin
- low share price - benefits Origin
- stock price pinned - benefits Origin
- no news keeps volume low - benefits Origin
- unusually quiet - benefits Origin
Time will tell. November could be interesting.
Stebol - my theory is that Origin could be motivated to keep a lid on this and could be first mover if drill platform feedback indicates liquids are present. Makes perfect sense for one company to control the entire play so that they can decide how to maximize value. Makes perfect sense to keep a lid on it if they plan to buyout FOG. In this scenario the market may not even see the results before an offer is presented. Origin could propose a cash & stock offer that would allow people to stay in the play or exit. Interesting times. Wouldn’t want to be the guy on the sidelines waiting for .20 in January!
Adding credibility to my theory will be how the stock reacts when drilling commences. If it runs, I’m likely wrong...if it stays pinned...the cats outta the bag!
Villa
I thought about the bankruptcy as well. While some of the selling could be related, if the holder knows what they are holding, why sell now knowing it could be worth significantly more in a few months? It seems to be perfectly held in a range below resistance. My 2 cents.