Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Marty, not sure about this being a sales pitch, but rather a “we’re going to sell it once it’s properly valued and we have money and time on our side”. We are positioned perfectly to wait and watch the results come in from the next few wells. This really becomes a story of a major paying early before the full value is known....or wait until some uncertainty is removed, but pay considerably more. I am personally hopeful we see an earlier bid from a major that provides a cash & stock offer that allows us to take out our money based upon our personal investment time horizon. The news is getting out and I’d expect we start to see some appreciation as the drilling plans are shared and the regulatory structure is finalized.
I believe the game plan hasn’t changed. Since the valuation of the asset looks so promising, you are seeing POQ refine his message to say “we’re confident the asset is huge and we’re prepared to retain ownership as long as necessary to maximize shareholder value”. Note he always prefaces we are fully carried on the drilling program, and there is no need to raise additional capital in the next 2-3 years. Short message is we’re comfortable to wait as long as we need to in order to receive full value. I think he’s playing this brilliantly. I also think we will be sold within the next 18 months. We need to reaffirm prior results with at least one more well, and then it will be easier to value the opportunity.
As Marshmill stated the .70p valuation is based upon what we know today. It reflects the removal of the discount on the moratorium and is certainly in line with what we had all expected upon release of the announcement. As we all know regardless of analysts reports, a stock is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it, and the effects of supply and demand. While the news was awesome, we did not see a big increase in demand...cause those who know the story are in (like me with 7 figure share position), institutional money sees no hurry to rush in as a result of the delay to resume exploration, and some uncertainty to the regulatory changes (water licenses, pastoral access payments, etc). So, the short term players who bought in the .15p+ range are cashing out. Others who bought closer to the announcement hoping for a double are selling at whatever price to minimize their loss. And the market makers are playing with the stocks low volume to shake the tree and accumulate for their clients. Things are moving in the right direction regardless of what the stock price says. Gunner has announced a member of the inquiry is leading the development of the regs which are to be completed by July. Patience will be rewarded. I’m also of the opinion that someone will attempt to take us out before all the wells are drilled and that could be anytime. POQ is playing this brilliantly stating he’s fully prepared to go the distance to maximize shareholder value. Consider the scenario of a major offering a small cash payment upfront + stock in order for us to be enticed to sell today and stay involved in the asset as long as we want. A offer of .70p cash + an equal portion in stock (1.40P total ) today could be a great deal for everyone. This is the end game I’m hoping for and would be happy to continue to hold through to production to realize full value.
Spot on AnimalSpirit! Glass raised to Justice Pepper and the Inquiry panel for a job well done!
John, have a look at the FOG chart for the week of February 14, 2017. That should give you a sense of potential movement for this stock upon release of the moratorium being lifted. It went up almost 4x in a week. Be prepared for extreme volatility as the traders and market makers move in. GLTA.
This is 3 days old and should be a non-starter in light of the recently completed inquiry.
Rest assured the negotiations going on between the Feds and Gunner right now will include the NT receiving a financial bridge on the funding shortfall in return for lifting the moratorium. The result will be a win for Turnbull having secured a path towards national energy security and reducing the future amount of tax money directed to the NT. Short & long term win for Gunner having secured a way to address the near term funding shortfall and setting the NT on the path to prosperity through increased employment and tax revenue. And most importantly the citizens of the NT who will benefit from the improved quality of life through increased jobs and services as industry begins developing the infrastructure to support the environmentally responsible development of the resource. Still feel strongly we hear something next week. GLTA!
Listening to the interview, you can hear they are giving strong consideration to “ how they implement the recommendations” rather than “holding ban”. Two weeks seems like a reasonable time to review a report that’s been largely unchanged since the draft was released in December and develop a talk track for the announcement and framework for implementation. We could start a new poll on “guess the date” for lifting the moratorium. Feel pretty strongly about Monday April 9.
Marshmill...big speculative money has been in for a while. About 500m shares owned by long term holders. While the final report being issued is positive, the moratorium is the dark cloud for anyone with a longer investment horizon than a few months. With the low volume traded, its hard to build a decent position or sell if things go wrong. Market makers are doing what they do now and that’s control the movement (while they can) to build positions for their clients at the best possible price. Therefore, keep a cap on the price and frustrate retail investors into selling. The moratorium being lifted will be the catalyst for a good move on volume.
I know the waiting is incredibly frustrating, but we are the closest we’ve been in over 10 years to seeing return on this investment. The final report is out, comments from industry are positive, exploration can resume, and the regulations can be developed in parallel with proving the asset. Check, Check and Check. Gunner for optics and pure politicking, is going to take a reasonable amount of time to demonstrate due consideration and perhaps present a framework to support how the recommendations be implemented and industry moves forward. Looks like they have the spin well oiled, reinforcing their message that the previous CLP did not have the interests of the Territorians or the Environment at hand with the “significant” number of recommendations proposed by the Inquiry to ensure everyone’s interests were served and the environment and people were kept safe. All things considered, well done Minister Gunner! Assuming he lifts the moratorium within a few weeks (I’d be shocked if he didn’t), we should have certainty for industry to get moving (don’t care if it’s this year or next so long as they have the green light to get boots on the ground) and less resistance from residents as they feel things will move forward with risks mitigated or eliminated. The icing on the cake is that once the moratorium is lifted, and industry has been given long term operating certainty, large players may look to acquire a position in this field and a line up could form at the door to POQ’s office. Patience is key and as long as we’re moving in the right direction, don’t worry about being up or down $0.05. I look forward to the day we can have a pint and laugh about the time FO was under $4.00! Good luck to all.
10+ years 😬....actually can’t remember when I made my first purchase....but I have one account with an ACB of $3.48!! If that one turns positive we be jammin!
Hey Bigones. As we move closer to the final report dropping it would be interesting to know if you have reestablished a position, or if you are still waiting to see if the moratorium gets lifted. Always easy to say what you did once the cards are all on the table. I’m all in, and have been building a very large position for 10+ years. Soon to be proven brilliant or idiotic. I’ll take full responsibility either way.
It’s like all the stars are aligning so that Gunner has momentum behind him to lift the ban and get people to work. Brilliantly played.
I can’t imagine there being a lot of demand for fracking equipment in Oz right now in light of multiple territory moratoriums. That said, if there is equipment available, and Origin felt the odds were in favour of the moratorium being lifted upon release of the draft report in December, any strategic business operator would have quietly contracted equipment with a reasonable cancellation clause if things didn’t pan out. If we are fortunate to have the moratorium lifted by April, I’m confident you will see that Origin hasn’t been sitting on their hands...
March 15 - to give the panel sufficient time to review all the submissions post cut-off and make final revisions to the report....and to kick off St Patrick’s day for POQ! Now that there is potential life back in SA, I’d say our valuation should increase, but hard to say how much without the results of a single exploration well. That said, if the final report is consistent with the draft, and exploration can continue under current regulations, allowing the NT government to give the green light immediately to a minimum of Beetaloo....and they do..., we hit $1.00 pretty quickly. Getting over $1.00 should bring in money from fund managers who are restricted from investing in low volume stocks under $1. We’ll trade in a range of $1.00 - $1.25 to churn the base of investors until boots are on the ground and the drill bit gets turning again. About a year due to limited drilling season. Upon results of next well, and assuming they are consistent, we get taken out by a major. Minimum $4.00 and if we have positive results by then to report from SA....higher. My thoughts....GLTA!
So for the record, the score for misleading the public through the independent inquiry is Anti-Fracking 2 and Pro-Fracking 0. I was encouraged to see this article and applaud Minister Vowles for drawing attention to this. I feel the media has a duty to report the truth and could help the NT public better understand the true risks and benefits of allowing the industry to grow under a responsible regulatory regime. The fact that LTG has not apologized to Origin and continues to promote the false accusations on their website should be grounds for litigation in my opinion.
Appreciate your honesty and agree we have 2 great properties and the only variable is time and everyone’s timeframe is different. We don’t have the details on how Burlingame unloaded 80m shares, but my guess is it’s a related party transaction to position the beneficial owner favourably for tax, but like yours....it’s an assumption not fact. If I had a small position, I’d be trading on technicals, not news and agree one could make some short term money. You simply can’t trade the position I have with the daily trading volume and market depth. It would take a few weeks to unload, and then if we get the news I anticipate we’ll get by June, I’d pay a premium to get back in....so easier to hold and not be bothered by the current SP.
Bigones....your motivation is clear, you want the stock to go lower and are promoting negative opinions to achieve your goal. Your likely being paid to promote this angle. I’ll commend you on your predictions thus far and if you’ve made money, good for you. But if you actually think you’re opinions on this board are having the desired effect of moving this stock, you’re sorrily mistaken. Most on this board are very long term holders, who after holding this at $4.00 and $0.08, are likely going nowhere until this story is over, one way or the other. We are very close to knowing how this is going to play out and there is simply no doomsday scenario. The only real variable is investment timeframe and that’s as short as a few months, or as long as 3 years. Right now, we are simply in a period where market makers are taking advantage of the waiting period for the final report and the decision on the moratorium. They safely know no news means uncertainty, and uncertainty translates into low demand for this stock and an opportunity to walk the stock down on super low volume. If someone was dumping the volume would be huge. Burlingame didn’t dump 80m shares on the open market or we’d be painfully aware. POQ didn’t dump shares, but rather prudently excercised options to generate some cash. His employment income after all is partially through options. At a technical level we’re currently trading at 1 year support....and for every seller there’s been a buyer. I’ve personally taken advantage of this weakness and continued to add to my 7 figure position. I’ve never been more comfortable in where this is going, the only variable now is when. GLTA
Easy to draw that conclusion if you want the negative spin. However, we don’t have the details of the transaction. 80m shares haven’t traded on this stock this year, never mind in the last quarter. This would likely mean a private transfer to another party or parties. We’ll only know for sure once all the details are disclosed.
There is a news release just posted on this. It simply reports that Burlingame now has 48m shares and just over 5% ownership.