While nothing says it’s USD, it is not likely CDN....Could be AUS. That said, back of the napkin puts the current value of our portion at about $0.60. You decide on the currency...still way better than where we’re trading today. Between a motivated seller and uncertainty on whether drilling resumes this year, the market has this trading at a significant discount and likely lower if permits aren’t issued imminently.
tda4falcon - You are not asking for too much and the silence is deafening. The fact that we haven’t heard anything is the most concerning and as CEO of a public company, POQ does not need the permission of Origin to address his shareholders. A simple “we acknowledge the lawsuit and are working with the lease holders and NT government to establish a formal land access program. We are working towards its completion prior to the deadline of December 2019 set by the NT government. In the interim our 1st scheduled well is located outside the disputed territory and look forward to spudding upon receipt of our EMP.”
Well, while it’s still too early to confirm, this information appears to be already factored in to our share price as we really haven’t seen a big run for the exit. As always, we’re the last to know. I was really hoping I was wrong on this one.
The timing of this announcement is ridiculous and the Cattlemen were certainly engaged during the Inquiry. You would think this lawsuit would have been filed upon receipt of the decision if a legitimate concern. This looks far more nefarious, and likely supported by deep pocket anti-development lobbyists. This has not been an easy 12 years....was hoping this year would be the TSN turning point. Looks like the waiting continues.
As I said a week ago. Something is going on that we’re not aware of to cause the continued selling pressure. I wouldn’t even be surprised now if a shorting strategy has been employed to put additional pressure on FOG knowing this shoe would drop days before permits are expected. All we can hope for now is that the NT government is truly committed to improving the economy & creating jobs to improve quality of life for their people. The only way this is going to happen is by creating certainty for industry, and as such, must swiftly offer insight into the scope and potential impact of this litigation along with issuing the permits and supporting mediation. Likewise, if we see any kind of major reaction Monday, I’d expect a NR from Origin & Falcon providing commentary & direction to shareholders if they feel the drilling timelines will be impacted. FOG being the stock it is will probably rally! Down on good news...up on bad.
In light of what we know to be true, this should have a .30 US floor and be an easy double by December. Without promotion, there’s enough smart money out there to buy up all stock available with that return. Yet here we are, presumably within weeks, if not days of having permits approved, and we trade at levels prior to the moratorium being lifted. The CEO says absolutely no need to raise capital this year and before the bit hits the ground, 50million shares issued at almost 52 week low. Makes no sense to me. I get the fact that Origin and FO can’t be promoting the shite out of this without having a permit in hand. I get the fact the regulations are just being finalized and permits can’t be issued until they are. But if everything was moving based upon what we all know to be true, we would be moving higher as we get closer to permits being issued. Yet, we drift lower. My experience says we’re not being told something. The downward pressure is not day traders as the only money to be made would be shorting. No idiot would be short a stock with low daily volume and good news being anticipated any day. Someone is unloading a position and they don’t seem to care about the price. With the anticipated value in a few months...the question is why unload a big position now? I’m sure we’ll know soon enough...
If drilling is going to be delayed....we didn’t need to raise capital now...so still feel the timing is wrong. Simply waiting until the drill bit hit the ground should have provided the opportunity to raise at a higher ASP with less dilution. The only thing for sure is something is going on that we are not aware of. In my experience....things usually trade in the direction of news...and this is going in the wrong direction....
I’ve been a shareholder for the last 12 or so years and have generally been happy to let POQ run the show. A positive change from Bruner and I’ve honestly felt he was doing more good than harm. But in light of this financing at a 52 week low with the drill bit set to turn, I’m no longer sure. We had a $15M carryover from last years program that should have more than offset any increased drilling costs this year due to regulatory changes. Just noticed we’re burning $400K a quarter on G&A for 2 people? That’s not all salary...so what kind of office are they in? For me the clock has started and if our stock price doesn’t change materially by the next AGM, I think it will be time to attend and seek some answers directly.
Here we are, allegedly within 60 days of drilling commencing, with political certainty in our favour as a result of the recent election, bullish reports from UBS and Cenkos, positive news weekly on industry ramping up with new jobs on the horizon and yet we trade within 1p of a 52 week low. We traded at 22p this time last year!
If anyone has connections with a reputable broker in the UK, it would be interesting to know if we are being held back due to the Sweetpea outcome or some other party who needs to unload a bunch of stock and if that was it, why not facilitate a transaction with interested parties to clean this up? Otherwise, this really makes you scratch your head. I honestly felt we’d have a very firm floor at 30p by this time. WW...have you discussed with POQ?
Agree with everything you say but will not support how POQ has handled. If he would have communated or even hinted that as a result of the increased drilling costs anticipated to comply with the regulations, and to ensure we have sufficient cash to cover our portion, a financing may be necessary, I’d feel differently about today’s announcement. Leading a publicly traded company with integrity, means being transparent about material matters. In this case he is on record a number of times recently stating no financing necessary. I don’t have an issue with the financing. I take exception to the timing and transparency and in this case, catering to a small group and the expense of the rest of us. Again, if the stock gets promoted and rally’s accordingly, most will forget about this. I for one will not as I can no longer trust what we are being told.
Well...I’ve been saying for a while now our share price was a result of “Reindeer Games”. Today’s news validates that the price has been walked down to this level deliberately over the last 8 months to the benefit of a select group of investors. The timing and pricing makes sense again.... solely for the benefit of a select group of investors.
If we weren’t going to drill this year, we wouldn’t need more cash, so no need to raise now. If we do drill and are successful, the price will be higher, so no need to raise now. If we drill and are not successful, no need to raise funds as no one will touch this. So the only logical reason to do this now is to throw the brokers a bone, with the hope that there is reciprocity when the drill bit starts turning and we need promotional support. The uncertainty of drilling commencing in 2019 makes it easy to walk this down now. So the timing is perfect....for a select few!!
I’ve lost all confidence in what POQ says as he’s been wrong more than right, and his messaging of no financing for the last year was crystal clear. To go against that, before the drill bit even hits the ground means I can longer believe anything he says.
I suspect that once the financing is complete, our share price will miraculously recover and everyone will forget about this. That is unless there is something else we don’t know, and if there is...you can be sure we will be the last to be notified. Time will tell....
My theory is the price is being intentionally suppressed by a party that wants / needs to hold the valuation down. Perhaps the Chapter 11 filing referenced. With little market demand while most wait for drilling to be formally announced, it takes relatively little capital to keep a cap on this. The daily volume is insignificant. Everything appears on target and positive, except for the share price which should resolve itself soon enough.
The board of directors represent the investment needs of “their” investment since they are mostly representatives of our institutional holders. POQ knows his place since he works for the BOD. Our BOD is not independent, and do not represent the needs of the “retail folk”. I am however, absolutely confident they are in this to make money, but it will be on their terms. They don’t want or need the company promoted, they don’t need retail money. They are the closest to all the details, and as we get closer to the story unfolding, will likely want to control a larger percentage of the company. As such, keeping the value “artificially low” will permit them to acquire more stock below fair value. Who wouldn’t want to pay $0.25 for something worth $1.00? Making money in the stock market is hard. The stock market is unfair and designed to take money from the weak or ill informed. Like poker, it favors the knowledgeable and disciplined. The good news is we can also take advantage of the current low stock price and can sell at the same price as our institutional investors as long as our investment timeframes align. We are merely passengers on this bus. We will never have the power to influence the direction or speed this bus travels. Pay your money....enjoy the journey, or sell and get on another bus. This board has been fantastic at leveraging the expertise of a broad group of members who continually contribute to our collective knowledge of this investment. We are ultimately our own “board of directors” and contribute to our own decisions to buy, hold or sell. I look forward to the day we can all celebrate the rewards of our effort.
This company does not trade like a typical, broadly held tier 1 issue and as such a reverse split would have a higher potential to be negative rather than accreditive to us. Upon a sale, it just won’t matter how many shares you hold, but rather the percentage of the company. Like it or not, we are controlled by a small number of large institutional shareholders. It has been to their advantage thus far to keep the story contained and under the radar to slowly and strategically increase their ownership through slow “churn” accumulation. This is of course painful to people in it for the short term. The need for additional capital will easily come from our current institutional investors through a bought deal should they determine it worth it. We are not currently at risk of being short of operating capital and we will have access to as much as we need if we prove the resource. Again, a lower SP helps them.....you don’t have to like it, but rather know the reality of investment in this type of company. We are merely flees on a dogs back. As long as the dog is going where we want to, I’m happy to know my position and enjoy the ride! GLTA.
I couldn’t agree more with you that the stock is being maintained in a tight technical range and capped to stay under the radar. In light of 1B shares outstanding and the relative low daily volume, it really doesn’t take much capital to keep this pinned. Your Petrohunter thesis is as good as any and if someone wants to / has to buy 60M shares, keeping the price artificially low makes great sense. Here’s hoping by June the lid gets lifted, and the drilling starts, allowing this to settle closer to the $1 it should be right now. I don’t care about the short term, but I would like to see it trade at a reasonable valuation so you’re not always wondering if your unaware of something negative!
Back of napkin think $1B per proven TCF. We have 2.2TCF today (P50) on 1 tested well. That’s why I feel $2 is a conservative value with current shares outstanding. Simply moving our P50 to P90 secures that valuation.
Promoting the stock now will bring in short term money and we go back to the see-saw.....up....down. We need a big player, with deep pockets to help us realize true value. I can assure you, they’re already aware of the story and will move when they see tangible results. Fun times!
I’m operating with the belief this will be worth a minimum of $2 / share when a deal is done based upon what we know today. If drilling this year delivers the wet gas/ stacked play we are anticipating, in commercial quantities, my number goes to a minimum of $4. I’ve been in FO since 2006 and have one account with an ACB of $3.48! Back then, the chatter was this was going to $40 based upon Bruners previous success. This has been a wild ride, and with a position of 1M+ shares, not easy on the stomach. But I like our odds much better now of seeing a positive end to the story. Contrary to some on this board, I believe we have great leadership in POQ. We don’t need promotion to secure fair value for our investment and while a higher share price now would be nice, it would only matter if your planning to sell before a sale....and you’ll likely regret that. Fair value will only come via an offer to buy us out once fair value is proven. Therefore we need the government to get the regulations in place to allow drilling to resume (appear on track), we have a rig contracted to complete our appraisal program, a partner ready to go (box checked again) and if everything goes as planned, positive results by year end to support a much higher valuation. I’m in it until we’re taken out. If we end up doing another financing to cover our portion of future drilling costs, I’m sure it will be at a share price north of $2 and it will be to significantly increase the final buyout price. Still fun to think about being worth $40!
So if we’re significantly derisked, and a buyout occurs, sitting on the sidelines worrying about buying at a bottom is going to sting.... Especially when we are taking about 0.10...just saying. Having accumulated over 1M shares over the last 10 years, I don’t understand why we are trading at this level, but would not want to risk being on the sidelines should an offer come in.
Wishing us all a prosperous 2019!
Well now that the price has been walked down to the 52 week low and options have been issued, we should now see the selling pressure reside and should see the SP return to where we were at the time of the llifting of the moratorium. Look forward to the drill bit turning and seeing this resource proven.
The Group’s decommissioning provision results from its ownership interest in oil and natural gas assets. The total decommissioning provision is estimated based on the Group’s net ownership interest in the wells, estimated costs to reclaim and abandon these wells and the estimated timing of the costs to be incurred in future years. The Group’s has estimated the net present value of the decommissioning provision to be $9.8 million as at 31 March 2018 (2017: $9.8 million) based on an undiscounted total future liability of $12.2 million (2017: $12.2 million). These payments are expected to be made over approximately the next 9 years. The discount factor, being the risk free rate related to the liability, was 2.25% as at 31 March 2018 (2017: 2.25%).