The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
As much as I hate to admit it, Biggie has been right more than anyone else on this board. Still haven’t figured out why he’s here...perhaps part of the shorting strategy. I agree that drilling 1 vertical this year is a joke with a significant commitment to prove up the resource and being behind about 3 years. The setbacks were not within their control, but getting caught up is!! You’d think we’d be drilling on all three areas as soon as the ground was dry! So in my humble opinion....here’s the deal....As I’ve stated for about 2 years...., back of napkin deal done with Origin. They will spend as little as possible this year to put the capex towards the buyout. They will get the Kyalla to flow, drill the vertical to prove there are HC’s present in the cores, retest Amungee to validate results from 2016. Upon receipt of these results and all the other results from nearby properties, an offer will be put forward by Origin by year end. The share price is being intentionally suppressed to keep it off everyone’s radar. Options reissued at 24 month low and we’re not even trading at the value of the exploration capex committed to by Origin....nevermind any value for the reserves proven to date. The Canadian side is being shorted at .11 to keep the price suppressed, net short position increased over the past 2 weeks. Does this make sense on a low volume stock trading at 24month low...and only .11 to fall? Really think this is going to zero FFS! It’s so manipulated it’s sickening. I think the ride is almost over. It won’t be the nirvana we had hoped when some of us started this journey over a decade ago. Still hoping for +$1US and move my capital on to so many better opportunities. Hopefully this is the last year here. GLTA!
We’re up 9% today in Canada on 500k volume. Hope the sentiment is turning positive as we get closer to work resuming. Here’s to being back to .30 ....where we traded sideways for months ....when the moratorium was announced and the future development of the Beetaloo was in question. This valuation simply makes no sense beyond allowing our leadership to renew their options at the bottom. Now that’s done let’s get this going FFS! Perhaps POQ and Origin can throw the market a bone and let us know what the next step is and when boots will be back on the ground!
Well....now that the inevitable has been announced at close to the all time low, perhaps the selling pressure will subside as we move out of the wet season and activities resume. This should be trading in the .30CDN range with wet gas confirmed. I do feel a bit better that half the options have an exercise price in the .20’s. Still feel this is being seriously manipulated. GLTA.
Not sure I follow your thought process. For clarification the article is from 2014 and 29P is equal to .51 CDN.
Superspazz - well stated.
Camelot - any comment on the options expiring VS being exercised as your broker had confirmed?
The complacency of the big guys and support of the current board and POQ is the only thing that gives me any level of comfort we’ll do ok here. I’m pretty sure they know more than we do.
Camelot1 - appreciate the update. This is extremely unusual and plays to my conspiracy theory shared here a year ago. The share price is being intentionally suppressed to allow Origin the time to evaluate the data. A back of napkin deal was likely done on the last farm down. This allows our leadership to exercise their options at 52 week lows and will make any offer extended by Origin look fantastic. At least in term of premium over market price. Quite honestly I’m a hostage to this investment after building a large position over 12 years and would have left long ago if I could have. I think it’s in everyone’s best interest to know retail doesn’t matter and should not expect anything but the minimal amount of information shared by POQ. Albeit it will be cryptic at best. I think we’re going to be ok in the long run, but am frustrated by how this is being done. This will be over this year and the sooner the better.
What platform were you able to see the filings for exercise of the options? I’ve checked Canadian Insider and do not see any filings for the past 6 months.
BC / Longknife - totally agree with you that in the US and Canada, industry works 7x24 through holidays. My point is with the current operator, worst case scenario would mean data by now...end of week at the latest.
The last update said the equipment had arrived and was being assembled. Was hoping we’d have an update by now. If we assume everyone went home for Xmas and New Years and only resumed work on Jan 4, we’d expect completion of this work by Jan 9 with the 5 day timeframe shared. We really should be getting an update by early next week at the latest assuming everything has gone according to plan. I’m frustrated that we have to assume anything. If our share price is any indication, my guess is this is not producing the anticipated result and they are trying to figure it out. Again, an update on progress would be a reasonable expectation from POQ.
Bigones - the question was asked on the AGM call if a delay in performing the lift post frac’g would damage the well. Both POQ and Bada said it would not. They also seemed confident they would get the well to flow. I can’t help but feel the timing of the poorly worded news release and suggested delay to 2021 to complete the lift was perhaps leverage to get the financial support program from the NT government. The only thing that matters is how this flows and we should know within weeks if not days. Merry Christmas everyone!
Tnbird - your frustration is shared by most on this board. I do not feel anything is going to change in terms of transparency on any of your points, simply because there is nothing that will drive that change. The board supports POQ and the major shareholders do not appear to be motivated to chart a different course.
I do believe there is a detailed plan to bring this to closure, we’re just not privy to it. In simple terms it’s still prove up the resource within the budget of the farm out and sell. The details and timing are strategic and not likely to be shared. Still say Origin and POQ have a back of napkin deal worked out. Thus POQ doesn’t feel the need to promote this to the market or cater to us retail folk. We need results from this well to see where we’re at. If as big as we all hope, I feel Origin will make an early offer to buy us out in 2021 to control the play, expand the value and then look to Farm down to a major. Timing is fluid and dependant on success at each stage.
Not sure if you were on the call but POQ was pressed on the timing to complete the lift. I felt comfortable it’s moving as fast as possible but a rainstorm could washout an access road, thereby extending the timeline. Reading between the lines I’d say this will be completed by year end just in time for a happy new year.
I’m not a fan of POQ but a lot of the issues that have extended our project timeline have been outside the control of both POQ and Origin. If it weren’t for COVID we’d have the potential of this well figured out. I feel better knowing we’re in Australia and not waiting for Hungary or South Africa. Lots of positive results within and around our permits.
We’re moving...and in the right direction. Still hopeful this 12 year hold will be worth it. Only time will tell. GLTA.
Longknife - no mention of expiring options.
The wording for the votes was something like....200+ million votes received and 90+% in favour. So there is a large portion not voted, and I suppose no vote means also in favour. We are where we are....remain hopeful the lift works, we have a huge discovery and the plan to do additional horizontals for the existing well pad is confirmed to commence as soon as weather permits. GLTA
- no discussion of farm down by Origin
- focus on current well and getting it flowing
- coil tubing and rig was on site but they felt the well was performing well and released the equipment due daily evaporation of Nitrogen in the Beetloo heat
- this equipment is returning “without delay” but no schedule was provided. POQ loosely said should be done hopefully by year end but face the challenges of weather and remote location heading into wet season.
- Origin is driving the bus, but working closely with FO on project as partners.
- 2021 drilling plan will focus on kayalla if they can get a positive production test. 2021 plans will not be finalized until they know this.
- POQ and Bada remain positive that Kayalla will flow once the hydrostatic pressure in the well is relieved with the nitrogen lift.
I am hopeful this turns out to be an Amungee 2.0 and 2021 starts off positive.
- there is a lot of industry activity planned for 2021 and with recent success should help accelerate proving up potential value.
Hope this helps.
tda4falcon - I assure you many of us are feeling the same. I voted my 1.6m shares against every motion to voice my frustration. As stated already, there’s simply no volume to sell if you have a large position. This isn’t going to zero, but not sure when this ride will end and whether this will be worth it in the end. I do think we’re close, but that’s relative to being in this for over 12 years. We do have a Cenkos valuation of $0.69 prior to giving up the last 7.5% on the results of 1 well. So I’d expect a floor deal to be in this range.
The only thing that gives me comfort is the major shareholders are supporting POQ. I assure you they have greater visibility into the plan, value and timing. If they didn’t, POQ would be replaced.
We knew for a long time this well was a risk, and that if it didn’t play out, they would return to the Velkeri and resume where success would be more predictable. A number of issues have come up that that changed the timing of the plan. They haven’t said this well is a failure, just figuring out how to unlock it. Moving slow....but moving. That said, communication has been horrible and retail holders are of little interest or concern to POQ and the current board. I’ve just accepted that reality.
My plan is to ride it out. It may be another year or so before this is wrapped, but hope it’s sooner.
GLTA
I don’t think they are incompetent. I’ve said for a long time there is some silly f$ukrry going on here. Certain things just don’t add up. Keeping a lid on this until the resource is proven up will benefit the purchaser who I’ve said for over a year will be Origin. Probably also explains the ridiculous update POQ provided that knocked us back down. I’ve said it for a while....a back of napkin deal has been done between Origin an POQ. Keeping the share price low will make any buyout offer look that much better. With Origin hinting at a farm down, this could be over sooner than later. At this point I’d just like this to be over and move the capital I’ve had tied up for 12+ years into something else. GLTA
Hey Orson. Thanks for sharing. I know you wouldn’t share this unless you felt it was credible. As stated, not confirmed nor do we know what or where it is...but it gives us a glimmer of hope. Appreciate it. GLTA
Long Knife. Sorry...I got nothing. I found out in Canada orders are distributed to other exchanges, and as a result we don’t always have visibility into all open orders. Was eye opening for me.
Longknife - what exchange are you trading on? I might have an answer...