Member Info for Oi_Oi_Savaloy

I think it's before JSM1. They can't comment on every individual's country of residence/tax regime and the israeli agreement (or not!) between the respective countries etc etc.

Could Plus be acquired by another company? Are they attractive in that respect or will they become predator? Anyone got any thoughts on that?

Watch the share price tank despite these epic results.......

I bought because I felt that alot of the bad news was already in the share price ( i might be very wrong however!) - was hoping that today's results (for those that really matter I mean - not the likes of me with a shareholding that just will never account for anything meaningful or influential on the share price) that it simply reinforces that all the bad news is out there and accounted for and things can grow from here. Surely they are going to announce that they are going to start lending again soon? More people are going back to work (they'd furloughed staff - they weren't banned from lending - I think I'm right saying that). I thought that, as they do play a huge role in the market, a valuable role in many people's lives (whether you like it or not they are the life line for some people sadly), they'd seek to start lending as soon as possible. in my humble opinion of course.

So we know the new CEO bought quite alot of shares at 34p recently. Was they because he was told he had to ('we want to make you significantly poorer, as you start to work for us - so please buy our shares for way more than you'll be able to in 3 weeks time') or is there something he knows that we don't, bearing in mind the results? I'm not able to join the conference at 9.30 - would someone be kind enough to put up the key points they take from the conference call? Just hearing how the directors are with people will be telling - snappish? intolerant or questions etc etc? Or open, calm, relaxed but not arrogant etc - you know what I'm talking about. Any insight gratefully received :)

B3Living is Broxbourne Housing Association's new name. So alot of the money that Inland are contracted to receive is essentially government-backed money. And there's £23,250,000 in land sales plus they've locked £4.5mill in residential units sales too. The HA contractor-arm has also taken it's order book to over £100million now (and I assume that profit is simply a function of turnover on that side of things - perhaps 9 to 11% of the build cost).

The Staines deal looks a good one - £6.6mill plus a cut of the uplift in the anticipated profits post-planning (when both parties flip the site no doubt!).
And the sentence saying they are well on the way on other land deals too - looks like the land deals that were stalled pre-corona are back on track. Possibly with new parties (I don't know - just that the land market is rocking at the moment - alot of activity, alot of people running around trying to buy sites, alot of sites available (but not seeing land values fall at all if I'm honest). I remain a long term holder of these shares - and it would be nice to see the share price hit 60p+ and stay there.....!

Thanks for looking it up Demos - i've not had time to do the research into it (wife has a new job - me working at home and 3 nippers).....It makes sense - the fact that Bewley and INL have done it this way - effectively they've insisted on the deal completing (so the price is locked in, and they are able to tell the market that the income is registered) but on the flip side if gives Bewley the chance to get a spade in the ground and helps with their own internal ROCE (or ROACE) figures in that they aren't carrying the cost of the total amount they are paying, upfront. so total figure agreed is (for arguments sake) £25 mill. A nominal amount is paid on exchange, with completion a month thereafter (and perhaps £10% of the total paid at that point. then £13.5mill paid in September and perhaps the next £12mill or what have you paid a year later. (and more important for bewley they are a year closer to realising some cash in the form of completed house sales.) everyone's a winner.

Last year they paid a dividend in July and January - I've not got the time to go through all the rns's but is that the case this year too (so July this year and Jan 2021)?

So, whatever happens to the share price (I'm in at 17p......!) in terms of growth or not do we still have that to loo forward to or have they suspended them? Sorry not to have done the research already but time is an issue this morning.

Yes - let me add my thanks to you too 14cr - appreciate you taking the time to explain.

That's only £145,000 per plot Demos - I thought they'd get more tbh. But perhaps there are abnormal costs associated (remediation or something). I thought the number would be nearer £250k-£300k per plot. I think Corona has really focused their minds - and paying that £150mill is a priority. :)

That's only £145,000 plot Demos - I thought they'd get more tbh. But perhaps there are abnormal costs associated (remediation or something). I thought the number would be nearer £250k-£300k per plot. I think Corona has really focused their minds - and paying that £150mill is a priority. :)

Well, as with all these things, situations can sometimes affect both parties - developers think they're suddenly paying too much but sellers needing the cash (any cash!) so sometimes there's an opportunity to renegotiate the terms but yes - other times developers realise that they are 'long term' holders of that land (to see any profit!) rather than turning it for a quick return. I forgot to mention brexit (which has an effect on both parties sometimes - it's not just a one-way issue for developers) and I htink corona has had an effect on everyone - people realise they need to seize the day perhaps or capture that profit and move on or not hold out til the pips are squeaking but to realise some profit rather than the extra last tenth. Or they are holding an asset that has suddenly become toxic (secondary office space) or where tenants are going bust left right and centre and their bank isn't being as lenient as the market would suggest. Buying land, doing deals - it's not just a one way street where the developer has a need and therefore the price reflects that need. We don't know if INL pulled the contracts (could have happened, using corona as an excuse) for example. they might have felt that there was a more appropriate, higher, value in them, or the buyer(s) were dragging their heels. There's always two sides to the story - it's not just the buyer dictating terms, at their pace. I doubt that was the case here but nevertheless. Bearing in mind deals take ages to do (and if they don't, what have you missed, is always my mantra!) ; there's a hell of alot of time and money invested in them prior to agreeing terms. But anyway - lets see what happens going forward.

It's not a definitive point of view Sain - just trying to add to the argument/knowledge/give another side to things that's all. The land market is rocking (you never really hear about it because most people don't understand it, have no knowledge of it and are concerned with house prices). But it's rocking - there are deals being done , lots of activity. We've got a stable market, house price data is showing a drop (which land owners read), developers have confidence in the long term future of the UK/London, planning departments are under pressure from the Govt, there's an emphasis on build, build, build, we might even see changes to stamp duty in the budget. I think INL will get those sites away (the aborted ones) within their timeframes stated and I also think that the companies that pulled out of the deal will regret their decision(s). That's my take on it, using my knowledge of what I'm seeing in the land market right now. I don't deal with INL directly or have any internal knowledge of them as such.

I've met the son on a night out with a west end agent. (I'm in property development - specifically buying land for large developers). He seemed very assured, very measured in what he was saying. He's got the watch etc etc but so do loads and loads of people in property - he really seemed to know his stuff. And he knows a hell of a lot of people - which counts for a lot in this game - it's all about the angle(s) when buying and it's all about whom you know too. Whether he's leveraged that from the association with his dad I don't know but if he has - good luck to him. Opening doors, meeting people, keeping yourself in people's minds - it's all part of the job. Buying land is so hard - you've got to leverage every angle you can. I'm in Inland for the long long term (as this stage). On the property front - I think the 'get me out of here' overrides the issue with waiting times and supply. They'll take the hit - bearing in mind alot of them are running with little to no mortgage anyway. That's the thing about £1mill flats -Help to buy is capped at £600,000 in London (less in the regions). That's why you'll barely see any 2 bed units go for £625,000 - they'll get knocked down to £600k (of £599k) or they'll be £700k+ . and once you're up into that level - alot of it is cash buyers/no mortgage buyers believe it or not. V hard to sell alot of those per month but that's the game you play if you're just stuck with UK buyers (the foreign junket/marketing pre-buy-to-let crackdown was huge and so important back in the day - get 30-40% of your units away abroad before you've even put a spade in the ground - bearing in mind their contracts out there are different to the ones here -in that they are an unconditional purchase with stage payments - contracts that you could take to the bank and borrow against.....to fund your build perhaps). It's why there's such demand for zones 4/3/outer 2 now - you're almost guaranteed to ensure all your units qualify for help to buy. £600k is a big number. People forget that - they concentrate on 'first time buyer' and then £250k or something. Anything to get people out of their buying margin/affordability threshold and upwards - that's why I think the govt wont be able to afford to stop buy to let anytime soon, despite what they've said so far....

Nothing to do with Blackpool sadly Sain! Or sausages. :) Perhaps not Tower Hamlets but look at the myriad apartments at Battersea/9 elms for example. Or Fulham, Putney, Wandsworth - loads of units at the £1m level (and above) with occupants perhaps thinking 'there must be a better life than this'. On the help to buy front - I think that market was created/assisted through the stamp duty effects and taxation changes to dissuade buy-to-let investors. Wicks (at INL) - both son and father, know what they're about - canny lot. It's why I've sold out of energiser - wicks leaving leaves me uninterested in engi (might be a really bad decision that but hey ho).

Sorry - there's no edit function and pressed 'post' before doing so.

I disagree on Help to Buy - I feel that the govt don't have a choice but to renew it indefinitely - they've created a structural issue (for the economy) if they remove it as it'll cause a cliff edge, even if they taper it. I think it's here to stay tbh. Don't forget that in the shires, the way deals work can be slightly different to London. I'm talking about the large, 200+ sites here. Often they are on the edge of villages/towns, where planning permission could take up to 10 years (look at the one they are promoting near Milton common for example - they're going for 6,500 units there). the deals are usually structured so that there's an incentive, once planning has been given (because Redrow will fronted the enormous costs of capturing a planning permission - at their risk of course, there's no guarantee), the developer usually pays 70-85% of the open market value of the site (the OMV of the site taking into account a 20% profit for the developer of course). they can then either build it out or flip it (as there's the margin to do so). That type of deal rarely happens in London, in my experience. I think Corona has played into Inland's hands. Imagine being stuck in a 2 bed apartment, on the 4th floor, that you've paid £1.2million for and you're having to do zoom calls in the hallway because your wife is working in the lounge and the kids are in the main bedroom. You start dreaming of a garden and maybe a bit of space around you and then you look at houses in that price region, maybe think about adding this year's bonus too (you've been flat out through corona) and with about 60 minutes commuting into London and oh, whats that? Beaconsfield? 4 bed house with a really nice garden and the cricket and the village feel and look, it's amazing for commuting....Oh yes! Ring round the agents in the home counties - anecdotal evidence suggests that they are absolutely inundated.....Bewley have bought precisely because they feel the market is coming to them too (94 of the same type of homes? must be mad unless they've done some research).

Sain - I think Redrow have decided to scale back their London Ops simply because they know how to build regional stuff more efficiently - the colindale gardens site/development is a massive regen scheme (2,900 units) and therefore is more 'potato punching' than bespoke flatted schemes that alot of London dictates. Build cost, design, unit types - each site in London is bespoke. But in the regions (forgive me here for sweeping statements) house design is fairly standard and therefore site costs, build costs, design costs etc are far easier to control/known entities and Redrow's buying powers come into play. There are huge profits to potentially glean from London but it's it's own market - you need a completely different skill set to do well in London than the rest of the uk - (I'm talking sites - it's not meant to sound prejudicial or anything.)

I've been invested in this for 3 or 4 years (because I'm a shareholder in Inland Homes, the business that the 3 directors of Energiser were running). I'm going to stay in to see what happens but curious to know more about people's thoughts on this and Drumz plc etc etc. Thanks for your kind initial thoughts DJP. :)

I've had a look at the Design and access statement for the consent - https://pa.chilternandsouthbucks.gov.uk/online-applications/applicationDetails.do?activeTab=documents&keyVal=OWB4O2OHIWE00 over 50% of the units are either 4 or 5 bed homes. Looking at the market around there - I think (I'm guesstimating here) that those houses are going to be around 1,500 - 2,500sqft (there's no accommodation schedule as such so I can't be absolutely accurate). That puts them at roughly a £850k to £1.5m ish. I'm going to take £1mill as the average. And on that basis perhaps a plot might go for £300k or so. But a bulk buy? Perhaps £200k each? 94 x £200k = £18,800,000 to 94 x £300k = £28,200,000. Something around that number?