Member Info for ocelot

It looks as if the seismic data will be processed and interpreted during the deep Winter so that, hopefully, the partners will be in a position to advance Basur-3 on the ground from early Spring.

That Loxley appeal decision must be very close now.

From AME's 2020 annual report released September 2021 :

The technical analysis to date suggests structures similar to our East
Sadak lease (page 14)

Re East Sadak: Current production 630 bbls/d (total net field ) (88%-share - page 20)

So 100% of the East Sadak field = 630 x 100/88 = 716 bopd and 50% of a comparable figure at Basur-3 would be 358 bopd, ie, at $80, revenue of $10.45m or, at 1.34, £7.8m.

The Company is pleased to provide an update further to the announcement on 1 November
2021, which reported that Natural Resources Wales ("NRW") had given notice of its refusal
of the Company's application requesting the grant of an environmental permit for a water
discharge activity to allow treated mine water from the Llechfraith Shaft to discharge to
the River Cwm-Llechen.
Subsequent constructive discussions between Alba management and NRW have clarified
the key points which led to the refusal decision. The Company is therefore working to
update its submissions to provide certain additional information, with a view to a further
consideration of the Company’s application rather than the Company having to go through
a formal appeal process. Further material updates will be provided as and when they are
available.

pdf version:

https://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/0445T_1-2021-11-21.pdf

From AME's 2020 annual report:

The technical analysis to date suggests structures similar to our East
Sadak lease (page 14)

Re East Sadak: Current production 630 bbls/d (total net field ) (88%-share - page 20)

http://aladdinmiddleeast.com/images/userfiles/files/AME_2020%20Annual%20Report.pdf

P50 net present values as at 01-Oct-21 (p57 of the revised CPR):

AEWB Post-Tax for the following discount rates (and 10% does look excessive to my eyes):

0% £59.8m (per share: 6.1p)
5% £48.2m (per share: (4.9p)
10% £40.0m (4.1p)

Market cap with the share price at 0.875p: £8.6m

The discount of the share price to the net present value of Saltfleetby (without adding in anything for Lidsey and geothermal) ranges, therefore, between 78.7% and 85.7%.

There is no way any reservations some may have about the success of the sidetrack can justify discounts of this magnitude.

P50 net present values as at 01-Oct-21 (p57 of the revised CPR):

AEWB Post-Tax for the following discount rates (and 10% does look excessive to my eyes):

0% £59.8m (per share: 6.1p)
5% £48.2m (per share: (4.9p)
10% £40.0m (4.1p)

Market cap with the share price at 0.875p: £8.6m

If it is better to travel than to arrive, then the share price should soon begin to anticipate arrival at its destination.

The last Basur-3 RNS dates back to 02/08, more than 3 1/2 months ago.

The share price reflects successive past disappointments and, more recently, an absence of news.

It will be interesting to see how the share price responds should the next news be positive.

86 days to Angus's target for 1st gas of the 14th February, St Valentine's Day.

The market has had 3 trading weeks in which to adjust to the dewatering news, so it could just be some cheap buying.

Wonder how the interpretation of the seismic is progressing and whether both teams agree on the interpretation and on the way forward.

OIL (the competent person) has a Reasonable Expectation of First Gas on or before 15th March 2022 ...

The Operator is targeting 14th February 2022, and OIL is being more cautious in its schedule
assumptions. (page 2 of the revised CPR of 26/10/21)

Yanis,

We are all different, you are concerned about EA approval, I am not.

No particular insight, Yanis, but can see the project is progressing and the lenders have made available £12m, so assume this would not have happened without some kind of favourable gestures from the EA.

Reminder: the sum of the parts calculation of the June presentation, uplifted by the amended CPR, gives a figure of 5.5p per share (this is after prudential discounts of 80% and 90% are applied to Lidsey and geothermal, respectively).

Far less concerned by EA approval than yourself, Yanis.

The lenders are financing the project to the tune of £12m, so they do not appear to be overly concerned by the EA's approval.

There can always be conditions, of course, but I would expect ANGS to be in a position to satisfy them.

Yanis2005,

ANGS management are responsible for the running of their business, not for the market.

They've secured the confidence of their lenders, it is reasonable to assume the equity market will, in due course, come to the same conclusion as the debt market and accord them, in turn, its confidence.

Haven't understood why you've addressed your comments to me, EchDelta, my grip on my investment in ANGS remains firm.

"during the course of November" means what it says, it doesn't mean "by the 19th November at the latest".