Member Info for observer842

I think it is just you @MLQ - what do you see?

Best I've got is:

https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?zoom=18&lat=-0.05656&lng=-51.18326&time=2021-10-15&preset=1_TRUE_COLOR&datasource=Sentinel-2%20L2A

Indeed @Zoom. Not forgetting plans were once afoot to produce steel locally:

"Zamin Ferrous presents construction schedule for Amapá state's first steel plant" (January 11, 2013)
https://www.bnamericas.com/en/news/zamin-ferrous-presents-construction-schedule-for-amapa-states-first-steel-plant
===[
Jersey-registered Zamin Ferrous has presented the government of Brazil's northern Amapá state with a US$120mn plan for the building of two blast furnaces, the company's inaugural step towards the construction of Amapá's first steel plant, local press reported. According to Zamin's schedule, the steel plant's deployment will occur in two stages. In the first 18 months, the company will invest US$60mn to build a blast furnace to produce pig iron. The construction of a second blast furnace, aimed to produce steel, is scheduled for 12 months later, with an investment of another US$60mn.
]===

Nice!
===[
Indicative offers for battery-grade lithium hydroxide for forward November loading and delivery cargoes were pegged at $29,000-$30,000/mt, supporting the bullish market outlook.
]===

Wow. Prices stepping up now!

https://www.lme.com/Metals/EV/Lithium-prices
===[
Fastmarkets MB lithium hydroxide monohydrate: min 56.5% LiOH2O battery grade, spot prices CIF China, Japan and Korea, $/KG.

Date Price (US$ per kilogram)
22 October 2021 26.00
15 October 2021 22.50
8 October 2021 21.50
1 October 2021 21.50
]===

Nice find! Looks like end of year predictions which some like to do might actually be meaningful this year! LoL. Mind you, it's a game I don't play as I don't like being wrong.... year, after year. ;-)

And besides, you'd have thought the court watchers would have spotted it? Maybe they will if it is published tonight...?

Exactly @Evans. The market thinks it is not new news (me too), but there is a possibility that due to timings, we decided not to issue an RNS in the afternoon, instead choosing to wait. Feels unlikely though doesn't it?

It does indeed feel like the 27% is perhaps closer than some might think. Nice to see another tick in the box yesterday! I wonder why no RNS today? @Kiran? Saving it up for the big one? ;-)

So going by the text in the subject line, and lack of market movement today, we (the market) believes this is misreporting, instead referring to the RNS we received last week, not new news?

I found more text using the power of search. LoL.

"Mine recovery plan in AP is approved"
===[
Bank unions agreed with the plan and now the project can go back into operation The English company Cadence Minerals obtained the approval of bank creditors for the agreement for the judicial reorganization of Mina Pedra Branca, located in Pedra Branca do Amapari, in Amapá. The company, which is one of the partners in the project together with Indo Sino, will now be able to start the investments planned to make the operation viable.
]===

Could it be...?

And to conclude my Thacker Pass research for now... https://ndep.nv.gov/land/thacker-pass-project

And then there are those opposing Thacker Pass.... https://www.protectthackerpass.org/

Indeed @EV. It's simply amazing how under the radar KDNC appears to be in respect to our 30% Sonora JV with respect to pretty much nailed on (IMHO) expansion plans. According to their latest presentation Ganfeng has a hand in various LAC projects and owns 12.5%

https://www.lithiumamericas.com/_resources/presentations/corporate-presentation.pdf

I can't see any direction ownership or collaboration with Thacker pass (a Clay deposit like Sonora), which could mean Sonora expansion would be more beneficial to them, than helping LAC. Depending on economics of course, and whether the BCN deal goes through!

Ob.

Indeed @EV. I'm beginning to wonder if that 20ktpa we've been seeing signs of over the past few months is a red herring, and actually refers to 20ktpa of Lithium Hydroxide per annum, which when expressed in terms of Lithium Carbonate Equivalent is 17.6ktpa - a reasonable rounding. The question on my my mind is why they felt the need today to put in writing: "In addition, Ganfeng is reviewing a lithium plant production rate above the previously planned 17,500 tonnes per year.". It's not out of the question that they'll follow the Thacker pass plans. 40ktpa + 40ktpa...

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/10/07/2310407/0/en/Lithium-Americas-Expands-Resource-at-Thacker-Pass-and-Increases-Phase-1-Capacity-to-Target-40-000-tpa-Lithium-Carbonate.html

Ob.

lol @EV. "which made $171m profit." ... in a single year ;-)

Thanks for reminding me I haven't updated WHI's sensitivity extrapolations for a while @ArnaudC06!

https://www.lme.com/en/Metals/EV/Lithium-prices
===[
Lithium hydroxide weekly price
Fastmarkets MB lithium hydroxide monohydrate: min 56.5% LiOH2O battery grade, spot prices CIF China, Japan and Korea, $/KG.

Date Price (US$ per kilogram)
15 October 2021 22.50
8 October 2021 21.50
]===

As we know WHI in February estimated a risked "today" fair value post-tax NPV8 of 129.8p/sh based on conservative life of mine inputs, namely: $12,500/t LiOH, $21,000/t tin, 50% probability the project makes it to full production, and 10% probability the size of the project doubles from year 5:

"Lithium development on track in the heart of Europe" (09 February 2021)
https://www.europeanmet.com/wp-content/uploads/20210212-FN-EMH-090221.pdf

From table 1 it's easy to see that once expansion plans are announced and the 10% goes to 50% that the 129.8p/sh goes to roughly £2 per share. These estimates are based on the now apparent conservative Lithium and Tin prices.

The sensitivity graph in figure 5 shows that roughly for every 20% increase in the lithium price the NPV of the project increases by 50%. This means that if today's spot (80% higher than WHI baseline of $12.50/kg) were used their post-tax NPV8 of an expanded project would increase to roughly £6/sh (£2 + (£2 * 4 * 50% )). And for those that like to use the fully derisked DCF value that's £12/sh. This doesn't take into account the increase of Tin prices approaching £40,000/t in recent times.

I make it that a 74p per share EMH is 6% of a fully derisked expanded spot based lithium post-tax NPV8 of £12 per share.

The Cinovec project is particularly sensitive to lithium prices. Just how high will lithium prices continue to rise? If negotiations are yet to be finalised I'd wager someone will blink soon! ;-)

Although it's unlikely lithium and tin prices will remain this high for the life of project, it is however possible that above $22.5/kg could be the new normal for the rest of the decade. Impossible to tell really - futures already increasing beyond this to $26/kg out to a year:

"Lithium Hydroxide CIF CJK (Fastmarkets) Futures"
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/battery-metals/lithium-hydroxide-cif-cjk-fastmarkets.quotes.html
===[
JUL 2022 25.23
AUG 2022 25.65
SEP 2022 26.05
]===

Corrections appreciated!

Ob.

Indeed. Could be a matter of hodling these little beauties ;-) I'm not getting ahead of myself am I? Surely not *again*, eh @Bannor? LoL.

Circumstantial evidence that the deal has been signed, or is expected to be signed by Wednesday? Fingers crossed all!

lol @Fingers, in which case you were out by a decimal place in your original calculation ;-) 7.5Mt * $30,000/t = $225B

lol @EV. Seems the market refuses to believe it's finally happening until it actually sees us owning 20% of the project. OK, me and you believe this could land this week, today even, but going by the current share price the majority have longer timescales in mind, and going by how long the hurdle we crossed last week took they could very well be right! But I seriously doubt it... ;-)

Ahem: https://www.sharewise.com/us/news_articles/European_Metals_Resource_Upgrade_at_Cinovec_Lithium_Project_to_708MT_Including_533_MT_of_New_Measur_European_Metals_Holdings_Ltd_irwpresseen_20211013_0836