Member Info for observer842

Good spot @JesmondLTHer, it's now called:

"Tesla's European supply chain & Cinovec deposit" (41,553 views - 4 Nov 2020)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=051y3zAeE6c
===[
The fate of Tesla’s European supply chain may rest on dealing with one company European Metals the only major Lithium Hard rock deposit in Europe.
]===

That view count is continuing to rise nicely from 33k yesterday :-)

Absolutely @mr.james. Why do you think I'm watching the iron ore market like a hawk! ;-) Also the USD:BRL and Baltic Dry Index. Futures now >$80t out to the end of 2022 :-))))

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/iron-ore-62pct-fe-cfr-china-tsi-swap-futures_quotes_globex.html

LoL @nookie! If (when!) we get to 30+ (perhaps this week even) it's just the start IMHO as our 30% JV's start to unlock. Rare Earth prices are rising and Lithium prices are forecast to rise in the coming year: Sonora going to 50ktpa+ is going to be a game changer here if we are able to fund our share of this. 30+ for you? £3+ for me! ;-) - in time, and depending on various plays aligning just so! We get 20% of Amapa and we've got legs and a long way to run. IMHO! :-))))

@hoffy71. IMHO it's just outdated information they have on KDNC, nothing more.

Indeed @degsie. The BoD buying in last week was a very strong sign to me that all is going to plan and I am now rather overweight KDNC on the belief that the odds of the deal closing are significantly greater than 50%, and that on news of the closure we'll likely multibag from here. At least 2 IMHO, probably 3, but perhaps 4 or more! On the back of Iron ore prices rising too... Very good risk to reward IMHO.

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date Seaborne index 62% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe fines
2020-11-09 121.60 134.00
2020-11-06 118.10 130.00
2020-11-05 117.20 129.40
2020-11-04 117.40 129.90
2020-11-03 117.20 129.80
2020-11-02 118.70 130.70
2020-10-30 118.20 129.90
2020-10-29 116.10 129.40
2020-10-28 116.80 130.90
2020-10-27 115.70 129.80
2020-10-26 115.10 129.20
2020-10-23 115.60 129.40
2020-10-22 120.00 133.40
]===

Project valuation and consequent share price is going to depend very much on investor's thoughts of how the Lithium market will evolve over the coming months and years. According to the LME: https://www.lme.com/en-GB/Metals/Minor-metals/Lithium-prices the hydroxide price is currently around $9,000/t. Many in the industry believe this is unsustainable and will likely rise considerably as demand starts to outpace supply.

WH Ireland's corporate sponsored marketing communication is worth another read IMHO

"European Metals Holdings" (14 May 2020)
https://www.europeanmet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/FN-EMH-140520.pdf
===[
In our model we assume current spot prices ($12,000/t LiOH) through the mine life and have inflated our capital cost requirement from the June updated PFS to $550m (from $483m). Using these inputs we calculate a fair value at 62p/sh using a DCF methodology and 40% of NPV10.
...
We use a standard 10% discount rate in our fair value assessment, which is our WH Ireland standard for the mining sector - for ease of comparison across similar scale projects. However, this might not be appropriate for a project located in the European Union and for a project producing a strategically important product – and a product where we see support from EU and governmental levels. If we used a lower discount rate our NPV8 (Table 8) would increase to $846m from the NPV10 $642m (Table 3); which would produce a fair value for Cinovec of 84p/sh (63p/sh – Table 3) using the same 40% of project NAV.
]===

The 40% NAV is also something investors will have different opinions on. In fact the project has moved on since May so WHI might even have increased this to say 50% by now. Additionally I've always been impressed at just how sensitive the project is to lithium prices. $15,000/t LiOH approximately doubles the NPV and consequent share price valuation (page 9). Of course this sensitivity is one of the reasons the EMH share price has been so low over the past few years - the other being lack of publicity IMHO! ;-)

Ob.

If only the company had that kind of reach for these recent videos which can be found from https://www.europeanmet.com/

"ShareCafe Hidden Gems Webinar 7 August 2020" (63 views - 17 Aug 2020)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LsGeBBPXnQ
1 comment

"DGWA on the road with European Metals in Cinovec" (502 views - 16 Sep 2020)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XI7eay99npQ
===[
Oswald Salcher is on the road with DGWA and European Metals in Cinovec, Czech Republic. there he speaks with the mayor of Dubi, with the Business Development Manager of European Metals, Simon Edwards, with Dr.-Ing. Martin Wedig from the Foreign Mining Association and with the managing director of DGWA Stefan Müller. There are also statements from Executive Chairman of European Metals Keith Coughlan.
]===
0 comments

Now 33k views and 338 comments.

observer842@Thu 09:06
=====[
@Noise. The reason is huge positive exposure, over 13k views in less than a day!

"If Tesla buys European Metals its game over in Europe" (4 Nov 2020)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=051y3zAeE6c
===[
The fate of Tesla’s European supply chain may rest on dealing with one company European Metals the only major Lithium Hard rock deposit in Europe.
]===

This could be just the start of the re-rate...
]=====

It's an interesting one @Genghis. On the face of it a rise of EMH from around 22p at Wednesday close to around 40p at yesterday's close increases the worth of our 23,259,751 share holding (14.43% of the company) from around:

23,259,751 * £0.22 = £5.1m

to

23,259,751 * £0.4 = £9.3m

Our share price at Wednesday's close was around 13p which means this additional £4.2m (£9.3m - £5.1m) of EMH value might have been expected to add:

£4.2m / 144,719,053 = 2.9p

per share, taking our share price to around 15.9p (13p + 2.9p). It closed yesterday at 14.38p.

However, I'm of the opinion that an increasing EMH share price adds more than face value to KDNC. Put simply the more valuable EMH becomes the less likely we are to dilute existing KDNC shareholders if (and when!) we increase our Amapa holding from 20% (following our release of $2.5m in escrow) to 27% (for $3.5m) and then potentially to 49% (for a greater amount).

A current valuation of £9m would allow us to either sell EMH shares to provide the necessary $3.5m or borrow against those shares (close your eyes @Bannor!) perhaps in the form of a convertible loan to take us to 27%

And if EMH were to re-rate to a valuation perhaps inline with Piedmont (457.35M AUD - half of what it was a month ago) the EMH market cap might rise to around half that (as it owns half of Cinovec) £126m, meaning our 14.43% would be worth £18m (£126m * 14.43%) around double what it is today (EMH share price of 80p), with the potential to perhaps double again - as Piedmont did.

Anyway, £18m ($24m) just happens to be the amount of "equity" funding that is mentioned on page 15 of our corporate presentation:

https://www.cadenceminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Corporate-Presentation-KDNC-JUL-2020-PUBLIC.pdf

and although it hasn't been spelt out to us exactly what this is, some believe that is how much we would be required to provide to take us to 49% of Amapa.

So this is why a rising EMH is "doubly" good for us, as it potentially allows us to increase our holding to 49% of a potentially multi-billion dollar company without dilution! :-)))))

All in my own opinion. Hopefully no typos, calculator malfunctions!

Ob.

And if you can't figure out how I found that out I'll share the secret search source with you later :-)

@Cause. I understand PGJ to mean: "Procuradoria Geral de Justiça" which translates as "Attorney General's Office"

I agree @Cause. As things stand it's agreement then shipping. Just pointing out that may change if the (lower) courts rule they can ship before agreement.

Anyone else wondering if the canny (US) Tesla investors might turn up this afternoon?

Probably best to use the stated number of shares @Mullins:

https://www.europeanmet.com/capital-and-shareholders/
===[
23,259,751 14.43%
]===

30.98 * 23,259,751 = £7.2m :-))

@Noise. The reason is huge positive exposure, over 13k views in less than a day!

"If Tesla buys European Metals its game over in Europe" (4 Nov 2020)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=051y3zAeE6c
===[
The fate of Tesla’s European supply chain may rest on dealing with one company European Metals the only major Lithium Hard rock deposit in Europe.
]===

This could be just the start of the re-rate...

And we own:

https://www.europeanmet.com/capital-and-shareholders/
===[
23,259,751 14.43%
]===

:-))))

Great spot @Cause. I guess that might explain why DEV isn't shipping: although the higher courts appeared to pass judgement favourably towards DEV, it is the lower court that has to remove the suspensive ruling - which might occur soon. All IMHO!

I'm with you @Masterbaker, will endeavour to do my best.

Thanks for your kind words today!

Great to see them buying in today and finally exercising those historical options. They must now be keeping their fingers crossed for >48p by the end of the year! ;-)