RE: Sonora value26 Nov 2020 11:00
Indeed @joesnatch. Sentiment can seriously attenuate fundamentals, particularly so on AIM! Does't mean it's not worth understanding them though. Unfortunately, estimating the value of our Sonora JV's is particularly challenging, even for my calculator of oh so many digits. LoL. I'd argue an upper limit, which takes into account the sentiment built into BCN's share price, is what I posted before: if BCN's market cap increases by £100m solely because of the announcement of additional mining (100% of the additional mining for arguments sake) in our 30% owned JV's, of which they own 35%, then I can't see our market cap rising any more than £85m. In practice it'll likely be some fraction of this due to WHEN the ore is mined, and KDNC specific project risks - we aren't funded, they practically are. But what fraction is the question.
As for: "I believe the fall in bcn's price from its high point had little or nothing to do in the value of Li and was all about time scales." - I couldn't disagree more. The start in fall in lithium prices, and the forecast for this to continue by Morgan Stanley and others was instrumental in the near completed funding deals to fall through a few years ago. In hindsight MS was correct, the oversupply of hard rock from Australia damaged the industry, which for junior miners typically means delay if you can, go bust if you can't... We over-leveraged ourselves on the Lithium play (CLN!) and were damaged quite hard in the process as @Bannor will sing about until he's blue in the face, or the cows come home, which ever comes first. LoL.
As for someone de-risking 1 million shares (less than 1% of the company) as we rise up towards a pound, I say good on them - I'll be doing the same, and fully expect the market to absorb them with ease! I intend to hold on to a good fraction of mine, depending on what news I see in the pipeline. I'm not here for the dividends, as I doubt any LTH is, it's a multibag play or bust for me! ;-)
Ob.
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