Member Info for observer842

Where is that from @tomcat?

"including our $2.5m and $3.5m repayments.". To be clear: from the project to the JV which we'll hopefully own 27% of or even 49% of at the time! It's a pittance, but it's useful to see where they come in the envisaged repayment schedule, along with the amount which would take us to 49% :-)

I agree that so far the courts have been on our side, allowing procedural appeals by other parties where appropriate.

The blurred tables at the bottom can be zoomed and squinted at and cross-correlated with other rows and columns to unravel. You can determine the exchange rate, iron ore prices used, EBITDA, loan repayment schedules including our $2.5m and $3.5m repayments.

I used the tables in the original JRP, which might be slightly clearer than the translated document, but still required a lot of zoom and squint. LoL!

@EV_Bull
===[
The stockpiles are obviously very strategic here, it looks to me there there should be enough value there to pay off most if not all of the creditors in the JRP (which is why I don't include the stockpile in my valuations).
]===

That would be nice, but that's not the plan (and there won't be anywhere near enough value even with elevated iron ore prices). It's probably more effort than it's your worth, but the tables at the back of the JRP outline the agreed repayment plans over the life of mine for the unsecured creditors, so we don't (unless things have changed) need to be concerned about them at this point with respect of sale of iron ore from the stock piles. However the secured creditors (the banks) are presumably negotiating with us just how much of the sale of ore form the stock piles they will receive, and how much we are allowed to reinvest in the project, the remainder of their credit being paid back in later years. IMHO. DYOR. etc...

We've agreed in principle to what the banks proposed, but with rising iron ore prices perhaps one party is getting greedy! Sigh. Just sign what was agreed in principle already. Surely it was fair to both parties in the event iron ore prices went up or down from the point of agreement in principle! If not, sack the negotiators I say. LoL.

@Bannor. I'm talking about the new movement which was reported last night. We'd already deduced it, but it's nice to see in writing :-))) "In view of the decision issued by the E. Superior Court of Justice, which rejected the injunction pleaded..." 2213966-51.2019.8.26.0000

No counter @Bannor. A placing can occur at any time on AIM, sometimes when you expect it, sometimes when you least expect it. The longer the wait goes on, and assuming we don't sell assets and that the CLN holders don't convert as they did last month, then a placing is pretty much inevitable. The gamble we are taking by investing/holding now is that the deal closes before the placing is required. Feels like good odds to me! :-) Did you see (new) movement in the courts last night? (That looks favourable to us IMHO!)

@EV_Bull
===[
Sonora project approx 4% of initial mining plan attributable to KDNC from what I understand but could grow…. so 4% of NPV of US$1.253 billion is $50m projects usually trade at a discount to NPV due to uncertainties so conservatively 10% of the $50m is $5mn = £3.7m approx. 2.5p per share
]===

I'm interested in your thoughts on how we might fairly relate that 2.5p to movements in BCN's share price. e.g. if BCN's share price doubled from 50p to £1 based on Sonora derisking/progress/sentiment, all else being equal, how might we expect that 2.5p to change? I'm thinking that 10% discount must have decreased (larger number!), but by how much? It's a tricky one as there is lots of cash and debt at play, and not to mention Zinnwald, and they now only have 48.2% of the current mining plan associated with them. The other 48.2% is Ganfeng (and 3.6%) is KDNC. It feels that we should start with an enterprise value of Sonora and take it from there...

Personally I'm expecting that 3.6% to grow significantly into double digit percentages when (IMHO) they announce an increase of the current mine plan from 35ktpa to 50ktpa or more in the coming months. :-)

Ob.

http://www.dce.com.cn/webquote/futures_quote_en.jsp?varietyid=I

Wow. DCE closed 3-4% up in the past hour!

"Iron ore soars, Dalian benchmark set for fifth weekly gain on China demand hopes" (DECEMBER 4, 2020)
https://www.reuters.com/article/asia-ironore/iron-ore-soars-dalian-benchmark-set-for-fifth-weekly-gain-on-china-demand-hopes-idINL1N2IK079
===[
MANILA, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Dalian iron ore hit a record peak on Friday and was on track to post its fifth straight weekly gain, boosted by top consumer China’s robust demand for the steelmaking ingredient and supply concerns, while prices in Singapore rose for the ninth session in a row.
]===

@EV_Bull. Here is part of a post I wrote back in June:

observer842@25 Jun 2020 09:03
===[
I highly recommend you carefully go through our JRP - and if you are able, attempt to decipher the tables at the back, I've managed to decipher most.

Original source:
https://pje.trt8.jus.br/primeirograu/Processo/ConsultaDocumento/listView.seam
20012416350764800000023996777

Translation care of @Dallas
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t_2GNdDBpqXrb9UszfuVFa63N6s_lHIA/view

One last thing - do not believe everything you read in the press: the journalists often (unintentionally!) misreport the true state of affairs, or leave out key facts, and I can't blame them: it's very complicated!

Ob.
]===

Now that's some impressive back of the envelope, finger in the air calculations @EV_Bull. You speak my language! And not a calculator in sight! LoL. I've not checked what you've written in detail, but it all feels about right, on the conservative side at least. :-))

Welcome @EV_Bull! Did you get to read the Judicial Recovery Plan? If Amapa goes to plan, and especially if iron ore prices remain high, and exchange and shipping rates favourable, it seems to me that the prospects for KDNC are truly staggering. Once the deal is signed (which could be any day!) I'm hopeful that the scoping study will hand to the market on a plate what those researched on here are familiar with, at which point I'll pat myself on the back for following through on my Strong Buy conviction based on research shared on here over the years - but not before! LoL. I'll be mostly holding my breath until then, but willing to help with pointers/research when I get a chance. Got an estimate for the additional EBITDA today's iron ore prices might be expected to bring above the conservative ones used in the JRP? The calculator test. LoL ;-)

Ob.

And up:

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date Seaborne index 62% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe fines
2020-12-03 137.90 149.80
2020-12-02 136.60 148.20
2020-12-01 132.80 144.50
2020-11-30 132.20 143.50
2020-11-27 130.30 142.00
2020-11-26 129.50 141.50
2020-11-25 128.00 140.00
2020-11-24 127.50 139.60
2020-11-23 126.40 139.10
]===

Spot:

http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp
===[
Date Seaborne index 62% Fe fines Seaborne index 65% Fe fines
2020-12-02 136.60 148.20
2020-12-01 132.80 144.50
2020-11-30 132.20 143.50
2020-11-27 130.30 142.00
2020-11-26 129.50 141.50
2020-11-25 128.00 140.00
2020-11-24 127.50 139.60
2020-11-23 126.40 139.10
]===

Futures:

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/ferrous/iron-ore-62pct-fe-cfr-china-tsi-swap-futures.html
===[
DEC 2021 101.95
DEC 2022 88.47
DEC 2023 80.52
]===

Rare Earth's starting to spike a little too:

http://www.asianmetal.com/RareEarthsPrice/RareEarths.html
PrNd is of interest to us

And not forgetting of course that Lithium appears to be finally turning :-)))

http://www.asianmetal.com/LithiumPrice/Lithium.html

Back to holding my breath, and topping up when I can! :-)

Ob

On recharge @Bannor! LoL. In summary if Amapa comes good then $$$!!! :-)))

Indeed @Jimb2! We've got 23,259,751 shares of EMH which is worth £10m @42.99p - which I believe could at least double within months (or sooner!) on various incoming news - multiple listings/off-take partnerships.
https://www.europeanmet.com/capital-and-shareholders/

And a 30% Joint Venture with 35% Bacanora and 35% Ganfeng in Sonora of which 839kt of LCE mineral RESERVE is associated with KDNC which I expect will come into significant play over the next 20 years, and potentially announced to the world in the coming months (or sooner!)
https://www.cadenceminerals.com/projects/sonora-lithium-project/

We get Amapa over the line and the future's looking VERY bright for KDNC IMHO! ;-)

Ob.

Couple of great articles shared on the EMH board by @Fingersxed

"The lithium miners are making a comeback as the EV boom begins" (NOVEMBER 26, 2020)
https://investorintel.com/market-analysis/market-analysis-intel/the-lithium-miners-are-making-a-comeback-as-the-ev-boom-begins/
===[
Lithium prices appear to have finally bottomed as supply stalls and demand picks up again.
...
Lithium deficits are forecast from 2022/23 growing significantly towards 2030
...
After the past 3 year lithium bear market (due to short term lithium oversupply and a trade war/Covid-19 induced EV sales slowdown) it is understandable that investors remain a bit cautious; however just imagine any mining sector facing a 3x-9x surge in demand in only a decade. This is what we call a mining super-cycle.

Hold on to your lithium miners and enjoy the ride as the EV boom begins!
]===

"EU to secure access to 30 critical raw materials" (November 27, 2020)
https://www.mining.com/european-coalition-to-secure-access-to-30-critical-raw-materials/
===[
The group of 27 nations will need about 60 times more lithium and 15 times more cobalt for electric vehicles (EV) batteries and energy storage by 2050, analysts estimate.
...
Europe could quickly become independent on some of the materials identified as critical. “For lithium needed for batteries and storage, we’re confident that we can be 80% self-sufficient by 2025,” EU commissioner Maroš Šefcovic said at a virtual conference this week.
...
As part of its strategy to reduce reliance on imported supply, the EU is also planning stricter green standards for batteries, expected to be announced on December 9. The new rules aim to reduce the overall carbon and material footprint of batteries manufactured or imported into Europe.
]===

Ob

Indeed @Mullins I probably filtered at the same time @Bannor alerted us that it was very likely a troll masquerading as an old poster on here - fooled me for a while!

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/Mrlithium/
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/Mr.lithium/

Despicable IMHO - but it worked, so a good play for a troll I have to admit.

HAS share price up, possibly on the back of this:

"China rare earth prices spike on magnet demand, export control fears" (Nov 26, 2020)
https://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/china-rare-earth-prices-spike-on-magnet-demand-export-control-fears
===[
Prices of rare earth magnet raw materials have surged in China this week as analysts say a recovery in coronavirus-hit demand overseas and concerns over potential export controls have led to increased buying.
...
Praseodymium-neodymium (PrNd) oxide touched a three-year peak on Wednesday and dysprosium oxide on Thursday hit its highest since June.
]===

Prices up a further 2-3% overnight:

http://www.asianmetal.com/RareEarthsPrice/RareEarths.html

LoL @Barksy. The current plan (17.5ktpa initially, then 35ktpa for a total of 19 years) sees around 12% of the Lithium come from our 30% owned JV, the other 88% from the venture which is 50% BCN and 50% Ganfeng. So over the 19 year mine life (approximately) 3.6% of the lithium mined is associated with KDNC.

I'm hopeful they'll announce shortly that they intend to start at 25ktpa and upgrade to 50ktpa, which will mean that 3.6% should increase somewhat if the vast majority of the additional lithium comes from our 30% JV area, which it likely will.

Ob.