Member Info for NRL2901

Luis - I need to correct my earlier post. On re-reading the article the relevant sentence is “And Aston’s battered share price — which at 52.8p sits below its recent 62p a share fundraising — will be “£6, £7 or £9 over the next five years”, Stroll proclaims”. So he is talking about £120 per share minimum. Investor relations said it was not a target but Lawrence indicating the mcap did not reflect Aston’s value.

Luis - I do not feel you are incorrect when stating
“£100 per share is quite ambitious target”. However, that was the minimum share price Stroll mentioned in the Times article. Share is like a dream at the moment.

Robglfc - you may have a chuckle at this and one of my mates said I had gone mad but rather than the holy trinity of Shankly, Paisley, Fagan and Dalglish, we may have Biden, vaccine, Brexit deal and possibly AML’s three key guys. What a difference under two months makes. Share price almost doubled in 9 weeks.

Thank you Darren and thank you for your various postings about other shares. Merry Christmas and a happy new year to everyone on LSE.

Following on from doyezee’s post of 18:47 perhaps also look at Eqtec. Invested there 16 days ago. Unfortunately it is my second smallest investment. Keep thinking there will be a pull back and can top up then. But has been almost a permanent daily increase. As per doyezee’s caveats, dyor and there is no guarantee the trend will continue.

Re aml, things have gone as well as they could post consolidation. Remember we opened at 1360p only seven trading days ago.

Regarding last night’s comments regarding Wales moving to tier 4, firstly The Welsh government guidance at https://gov.wales/leaving-your-home-and-seeing-other-people-alert-level-4 remains the same regarding the St Athan factory:

“There are other reasons listed in the regulations why you can leave home if it is “reasonably necessary” and there is “no practicable alternative”....for work purposes, or voluntary or charitable purposes, but only where it is not reasonably practicable to do this from home”.

Secondly, longer term followers here will be aware q3 results made a provision for the factory closing regarding covid-19 (“The directors have considered a severe but plausible downside scenario that includes considering the impact of a 30% reduction in DBX volumes, a further 4 week period of factory closure due to Covid-19 restrictions, operating costs higher than the base plan and additional cash requirements linked with the end of the Brexit transition period”).

Thirdly feeling for people whose jobs may be in danger, particularly in current economic climate.

Let us see what the next 3-4 days trading brings.

Robglfc - I agree with your post of 13:26 today. You also referred to Cardiff and Bristol airports in an earlier post. There is also St Athan airfield if AML need it. It is an ex MOD base that is now owned by Cardiff Airport / Welsh Assembly Government. Cardiff Airport virtually dead at the moment so if they were exporting cars by air, they could charter however many planes they want out of Cardiff.

All - I can believe 3300 being 47% up in spite of Friday’s hit given her two beloved German donkeys and money made on AML. It is not unrealistic. That said, I do take Robglfc’s point about why not keeping at least 10-20% of the original holding given points regarding golden tickets, stresses of AML this year to date, emotional attachment etc. I hope that is considered an objective assessment without offending all relevant posters.

In terms of the floor it will be interesting what it is. I do think c2 has a valid point about a possible 62p old money floor. Nevas said something similar given the Mercedes price. Time will tell, just as 3300 was proved right regarding her prediction Monday night of Friday’s 70p close and Roger was about 48p not that many weeks ago. Only reason think might go that way are Brexit uncertainties and/or Barclays, JP Morgan etc selling. Also Dunnieboy made a valid point previously about a low share price used to attract execs. If true and there are a couple more board members to come, not impossible as an additional factor.

HL email copied and posted below covers consolidation questions:

“This is a reminder that all holdings in Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc at close of business yesterday, Friday 11 December 2020, will be consolidated, receiving 1 new Share in place of every 20 Shares previously held.

The new consolidated Shares are expected on 14 December 2020. Please note we will credit the Shares to your Account upon receipt from the registrar which may not be before 8.00am on 14 December 2020.

Fractional entitlements to new Shares will not be issued. Instead cash payments representing fractional entitlements will be paid where appropriate....”

Thank you GT4Racer.

I agree with AML_007’s post of 17:44. The markets can suprise us when they have certainty, even if we think that certainty is bad news. Recent example is the second lockdown. Thought stocks would tank but markets reacted positively. Time will tell. And this stock does not follow patterns and never ceases to suprise us. Today’s circa 10% fall an example of that.

I have not read all of today’s comments but (as a total neutral) one has to give 3300 some credit for her £14 floor prediction in her post of Monday evening. It may (or may not) have been a tongue in cheek remark but 70.0 was right on the nose according to Yahoo at 16:36. Even by our standards 75.15 at 15:45 to 70.9 at close and 70.0 end of day is a second mighty tree shake of the day.

It is on days like this one particularly misses JTMacs’ data and witty summaries. Does anyone have an insight whether the two sharp falls were (1) brexit and/or consolidation related or (2) caused by Barclays, JP Morgan and/or Deutsche Bank selling a chunk of their Institutional Placing Shares or a similarly large shareholder selling?

Ultimately the future is still a lot brighter for AML than it was six months ago. We have a top management team and are also still 12% up for the last 30 days, which hopefully will not get lost on people’s frustrations today. GLA

I agree with your view about Stroll taking up at least some of the bonds himself and your post of 09:06 and Doyezee’s post of 08:58 today. I specifically asked Mfgx regarding the bondholders on Friday as he or she appears very knowledgeable. Mfgx agreed it is unusual not to release the details of the bondholder.

3300 and C2 - it is not a lock in but C2’s point is not a factor for several months. The warrants to the second lien note holders are not issued before 1 July 2021 (page 61 of Prospectus). My only reservation for short term is if there is no lock in on the shares issued to Barclays, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank. Would imagine Zelon and Permian were hand picked by Stroll on the basis that they will be long term holds. Hoping there is either a lock in on these Institutional Placing Shares (which I may have missed in the 220 page prospectus) or they chose to keep for a while as they have bought into Stroll’s vision. Otherwise we could have downward pressure in the short term similar to II or the Kuwaiti NED’s sales.

All - at some point Dbx figures will be published but may not be even with Q4 results. Stroll seems to still want to keep this slightly under the radar. The hand brake will be released when Stroll decides. But fact has done Times interview, the stuff posted late Friday etc suggests that day is becoming nearer.

Link is https://amsc-prod-cd.azureedge.net/-/media/corporate/documents/general-meeting-4-dec-2020-shareholder-qa-final.pdf?rev=3d7694265c4a4b7e9d6aadd7e17146e4&hash=028684F4DD89947986AB2307BBBE252A

It is on there as read it yesterday. It is a three page document. Would query if contained all questions as cannot think no-one asked re DBX numbers etc.

As per 3300’s comments, glad to see you back (hopefully at full health). Had been meaning to check here for a while. Your posts and insightful humorous manner are missed on AML. But fully understand why you do not post there as are watching from the sidelines. Have a great weekend

Robglfc - thank you for correcting me.

Dunnieboy - apologies for not giving credit where due.

Robglfc - your prediction of 80p was virtually right on the nose. Have a good weekend.

Delmia - regarding your post of 18:48 yesterday, I have had a similar predicament for a few weeks. I ended up selling circa 9% of my shares just before close. Way I look at it is if robglfc, dunnieboy, kevlovestrading etc are correct and SP rises to 95p next week then does not look back post consolidated Monday week I will be so much up on my remaining 90% there will be no regrets. If it retraces to 72p (which looks like current support level) or lower then will just rebuy. View it as a win win basically.

All - one thing I do not think has been concluded on here is fractional entitlements. We apparently only get the market price for our fractional entitlement if it is worth more than £5. Emailed IR a few times to get the definitive position as had x thousand and 79 shares at start of play today. That may explain the vague language in the Prospectus regarding it.

Thank you Mfgx.

Mfgx - thank you for your reply of 10:10 today. You appear to indicate the payment in kind at 6.11% is in addition to the option of circa 126 million ordinary shares at 50p. I had not appreciated this so would be grateful if you could please confirm. In your experience of PLCs, would you expect us to know who the first and second lien note holders are? Or is it standard for AML not to advise if it Barclays or another financial institution who holds them? Assume it is not yew tree as that would be a declarable related transaction.

Mfgx - please can you clarify for the less financially knowledgeable people about the warrants and payments in kind. I understand your concern about the warrants. Page 60 paragraph 4 of the prospectus refers to a 7 year period from 1 July 2021 for the warrantholders to subscribe at 50p. There is also a reference to the 15.0% interest rate being 8.89% cash interest and 6.11% interest paid in kind. Based on the publicly available information, Are the warrants the interest in kind or is this something else? Is it usual for the company not to publish who the first lien notes and second lien notes are placed with? Found it a bit strange being asked to approve a borrowing when I do not know the lender.