Member Info for NRL2901

Dimi, I always like your posts and you are not wasting anyone’s time here. You and DarrenBuffer make good points even if not directly about AML (eg good to keep some spare cash in these strange times to pick up bargains as they arise, market very strange at the moment). You and 3300 also have a way of expressing things that one relates to. Agree with airlines (made mistake of selling my Easyjet shares when only 22% up on Monday as thought there would be a dip) but wise sages like 3300, DarrenBuffer are confident still a lot of mileage in TUI. Let us see what next week brings. Hope you are managing ok with the German lockdown.

Sorry to hear this JTMacs. Wishing you a speedy recovery.

Dimi - good to hear you are ok. Hope things have picked up for you share wise. Miss your updates.

3300 - agree with your post of 19:08.

Mgfx - thank you for your various points. You were right about 80p. It was high 80s when market recovered in early June. Remember it well as had shares in mid 70s, missed the high 80s that day and cursed as it went down to the 40s!!!!

All - I have not contacted investor relations but will do in a week or so. Agree the final bond rates should be announced and cannot understand (1) why they told 3300 or whoever there will be no RNS regarding this and (2) how we went from Stroll saying in H1 presentation no need for more equity and a positive statement a week or so later that AML had cash flow for the next 6-12 months to then saying there was a material issue with the business three months later. Stroll had been in situ for months by H1 presentation so cannot understand the change. In my initial post on here I referred to Pantarei (who I hope is well). He made the point about his Chelsea shares, not trusting KB but never thinking RA would get his shares for what he did and then not getting a share of the spoils as the club turned around. Hoping not case here and genuine reasons such as exiting NED, trying to recruit further high level execs, want stability to attract IIs are the reason for the current SP. Time will tell. Fingers crossed.GLA

Also other entities like IAG, Easyjet are up. IAG 12-13% above its rights issue price! Agree it is illogical.

Thank you for explaining Rox.

Thank you TinyPie. People have their doubts about that publication but (1) it is good publicity and (2) situation even better than in the article as that was written before Friday’s refinancing. Several posters have commented the gap between the market capitalization and the enterprise value will now be greater than the £900 million and £1.66 billion figures quoted in the Fool article you helpfully posted. Be interested what the share price does this week. Regretting using my emergency carrots to top up at 60p day after the MB announcement but will be good in the long run

I think it was a last minute decision to bring forward q3 results. Whether because of he suspected the lockdown, due to the refinancing etc, we can only speculate. But the last few people who asked questions in the q and a both commented about the short notice, other earnings calls they were scheduled to be on etc. Be interesting the share price the next few days goven lockdown, US elections etc. Could go either way and for the doubters remind yourself this is a lth. MM and others would love you shares at 5-10% below Friday’s closing price.

Meant to say though is the share price too low for a rights issue? IAG were criticised for waiting so long. If announced When share price is, for example, 22p and give a 35% discount to encourage shareholders to buy (as IAG did and I understand Whitbread did similar) is it worthwhile as new shares are at 15p each. People fear we are going to 15p anyway. Be interesting what share price is come first thing Wednesday post US election and market considered the lockdown for two days.

Is a rights issue that bad in the context of the AA? As well as ODX mentioned, consider IAG and Whitbread following their rights issues. AA is profitable, as shown by last set of results. In my mind, that differentiates it from the others. Profit was, from recollection, virtually same as 12 months ago. If RI monies used to reduce debt, does that mean if takeover collapses then lower debt means more likely to get funding and/or funding at a lower rate? Also means stronger negotiating position with future bidders. A bit like our motor love, I am advised that the debt is holding back share price so, in my mind, a RI to reduce the debt may not be that bad a thing. Please can Rox and 3300 explain shortcomings in the thought process if you disagree.

3300 - point was trying to make was if IAG say on Friday they have x billion cash in the bank but are burning through, for example, 100 million a week, are II and PIs going to look at AML better than IAG as an investment opportunity. Also we have got publicity money cannot buy from the announcement.

Also (and you and the odd other has alluded to and please forgive my simpleton maths) we closed at 54.5 yesterday. If you take 26% off that to reflect the equity raise and Mercedes’ first tranche that will happen following the forthcoming general meeting, we are at 40.33. Last time we fell from 62p to 50p virtually on the announcement of the equity raise. Fact this is still at 55p or whatever it is now shows there is value in the various announcements in yesterday’s three and this morning’s RNSs.

Rox - I do not think AA is doomed. You highlighted a very good AA bulletin board elsewhere. Best chatroom I have seen after this one. It will come good, just a question if via a bid in a few weeks or the next 12 months following a refinancing. Read volvopandy’s humurous posts today. Do not let the AA be like the share you mentioned that shot up after you sold. We have taken months of pain with AML and hope it is worth it. AA should be the same.

Soul - well said highlighting the markets generally. Only thing to add is we are approaching Q3 results. For example, IAG on Friday. Q2 results were understandably negative for most companies and entities such as Lloyds, IAG that I follow hit 12 month lows on or around Q2 results. Perhaps it was a masterstroke to get good press before the forthcoming doom from other companies.

3300 - firstly thank you for immediately highlighting dimi and Rox on yesterday’s news. I would not have the level of shares I hold in AML if not for dimi rebuilding my confidence in the share by his predictions. Fingers crossed for Rox a bid comes in soon on AA so he can make a nice return there.

secondly I agree with various parts of your post of 06:41, particularly the last bit.

Crank001 - thank you. I appreciate that the dilution is a positive if the total value of the business goes up more than the value of the new shares. This dilution (or certainly the Mercedes part) is not simply to pay debt and increase cash in the bank. Lots of positives (as several trusted people on here have confirmed). Be interested where this share price settles and what the resistance price is once the two sets of new shares are admitted following the general meeting. RNS at 07:00 today saying the IIs have taken the 250 million new shares

DunnieBoy - thank you for your various posts, particularly from Charlotte and the guy who said the board were trying to ensure the sp did not go below 50p.

It is interesting as more info gets released. Call today was diametric opposite of Stroll’s answer in H1 call re new funds. Fact had loans at 12% told me company in dire straights. Did not realise there was $225 million borrowed at that rate!!!!

For all the good news, we are also getting a 26% dilution folllowing the forthcoming General Meeting with a further 19% to come with Mercedes 2nd tranche etc.

Great deal for Mercedes as well - AML pays the difference of share price less than 62p whilst 2nd tranche guaranteed at 62p. If this takes off, that will be a massive discount in 12-24 months‘ time.

I appreciate why everyone is concerned as this does not look good for a bid tomorrow. Can we place anything on the 229k and 134K after hours buys? If anyone has premium access what percentage of today’s volume was that? Fingers crossed for either a bid tomorrow or for either party to wall away so we have clarity.

Good views from Paddy on the DBX.

Walesonline article at https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/wales-lockdown-circuit-breaker-leak-19122083

I will post the link separately in case it affects this post but this may be counteracted in the short term by a Welsh Government 17 day firebreak lockdown. Details tbc over next few days.

Well said JT.