Member Info for NRL2901

Whilst it has been anticipated, hopefully vaccine roll out will give us a lift. Just need a Brexit trade deal as well and hope for a very positive few weeks combined with the news we hope Stroll is holding back:

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-approves-use-of-pfizers-coronavirus-vaccine-12148786

Wordsmybond - I am catching up on things but what I was told by IR was this was not a prediction by Stroll. It was him simply stating the then current mcap did not reflect the value of the company. But 3300 and several posters had been saying that for months. Even the Fool had picked up on that.

Thank you. Does anyone have a subscription to The Telegraph so they can copy and paste the link please?

I sold one third of my shares JPGE at just over 34p and am keeping the other two thirds in case consortium up their bid or an interlopper appears. Will keep a watching brief. Part of reason for sale is missing opportunities elsewhere and wanting a more balanced portfolio.

Crank, whilst I admire your positivity, rather than post at 10:57 regarding alleged multiple IDs, please can you answer NickyGBank’s question of 21:51 yesterday about the reasons for your post at 21:35 yesterday that “Tomorrow this share makes a breakout and you heard it here first...Choo Choo!!...”. Nicky beat me to asking it. Whilst there is an upward trend that you highlight, this is different to grounds for a breakout. Appreciate a breakout may happen today, notwithstanding performance this morning.

That may or may not be true. But Davidson Kempner the only II supporting this. Getting 75% without the support of ABC etc may well be very challenging. Fingers crossed for an interlopper. Separate question of opportunity costs of covid-19 recovery investments elsewhere if you consider what BP, Shell etc have done this week.

It is not that bad if you look at the day chart:

https://www.tradegate.de/orderbuch.php?isin=GB00BFXZC448

Arguably there are two conflicting sets of director duties. On the one hand, directors need to promote the success of the AA for the benefit of its shareholders as a whole (which arguably they are doing if (a big if) it is truely the rescue package some papers have made the bid out to be). On the other they must exercise independent judgement and exercise reasonable skill, care and judgement. Not sure why refinancing so onerous that the board appear very much against it. Rox, PaulOz and myself all follow or have shares in AML. They refinanced recently but their perceived risk meant interest at 10.5%. Were AA quoted similar rates and, if so, could the AA afford this rate? At the very least I hope the board seriously looked at this during the various extensions. Not trying to provide answers, just a balanced and slightly more detailed view. Hope ABC and others fight strongly on our behalf, as their Sunday tweet I posted suggested the offer was well under value.

I wondered that question myself BoracicLint. I think it is saying if you do not sell your shares, more shares will be issued and you will need to subscribe to this quasi rights issue to maintain your shareholding with you receiving no cash for your existing shares. Not sure if this is to keep existing IIs on board. The bit you quoted is a footnote so needs to be read in conjunction with the sentence it relates to setting out the option in lieu of cash consideration. Hopefully someone more learned than me can explain this.

Obviously had not read the RNS when posted this “possible cash offer of 35 pence per AA share for the entire issued, and to be issued, ordinary share capital of the Company”. And they try to dress it up by a premium from when the news initially broke, not Friday.

PaulOz - good to see you on here as well as AML.

All - hope link works but another board highlighted this from ABC’s twitter feed. These guys own a tad under 20%, which again makes me think no 40p bid:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlbertBridgeCap/status/1330631581585842176

To clarify as the sky article is vague about it:

“A formal bid is likely to be pitched at a relatively modest premium to Friday's closing share price of 33.55p, according to analysts.“

What analysts? It is vaguer than other sections of the article such as the prospectus chair. Analysts have given anything ranging from 5p up. So could still be quite a bit over 40p. Agree with Rox why would ABC etc be topping up if they are only going to make 7p a share if 40p.

Exciting next 24-48 hours. A 07:00 RNS would be very welcome.

One point that may have got lost the past few days is we are still circa 12% up this week. 65 to 73p. Sometimes we get affected by the sharp drops when overall it is still a good week.

@robglfc - thank you for clarifying. If this goes above 85p before the GM I will be tempted to sell my 66 and 67p purchases at cost just because I am a bit like @synxs in that I put more in here than I ever imagined. Also would effectively be getting x free shares as selling value not shares bought and you never know how a share reacts post admittance of the new shares. If it goes back to low 60s would repurchase but, in nicest possible way, hoping never goes that far back again. But you just never know. Cannot believe we were at 48p just weeks ago, which is where we were at pre H1 results and the company is significantly stronger now. Also for me I have not got the shares in a ISA so that and wish to rebalance are factors. Thank you both @robglfc and @synxs for giving your normal honest thoughtful response to my post.

DunnieBoy - in relation to your post of 10:19, in fairness to 3300 she changed her mind regarding other companies being posted on here when robglfc was too discrete for some people to pick up regarding the US company with lithium batteries that went up lord only knows what on one day. Perhaps you could refrain from commenting on 3300’s posts and vice versa as you both post useful stuff.

Robglfc - out of interest, were you not tempted to cash in part of your portfolio in the low 80s to average down and buy back in if it significantly dropped? Wish I had now with a small fraction of my portfolio (7-15%) but was thinking we were on next wave to 85p+ or Nevas’ 92p channel. We have similar averages, hence the question although perhaps a wider range of purchase prices. Based on what ai have read this would be Similar to what Synxs appears to have done, which is perhaps more relevant for me as I have pushed the boat out regarding the total monies I have in AML. Agree with your point about certain posters as I very much view the cheapest two thirds of my portfolio as golden tickets that are not to be sold under any circumstances for a good few years. If re-buy, for example, 1000 shares at 70p it is not the same as your old lot of 1300 shares at 53.84p of the share price goes where we think it is going. But do appreciate people who have done this (1) may have made 50% within a week on TUI and (2) everyone is entitled to do as they want.

The oracle is certainly right, albeit with a far higher opening price at 08:00 than I expected. Felt too risky to sell even any profit now in case a bid gets leaked.

Rox - forgive the public nature of this message but I do not have an email for you. whilst good news you set out below, the oracle emailed me indicating there will be a small correction. This and the number of shorts still open suggest an extension to me. I publicly pay tribute to the oracle for reaching out given the number of other things he has on, his business being locked down etc. Shows he is a 5 star person as well as giving incredibly accurate share forecasts.

I use HL. I noted when we had sharp drops in early summer (10% in 5-15 minutes) that one could not buy shares. I think more to do with your broker than anything else. There used to be someone on here could WG who explained why and the bells and whistles he got for a £100+ a month fee meaning he had no such frustrations.

Thank you Rox (and Taverham) for your response. Counter offer is a possibility but reason taking so long may be board and PE aware of this and large IIs not going to want too big a loss. But if the AA board, hypothetically, recommend a 60p offer from the PEs and share price goes up to 58.5 (using Taverham’s point) then it would be quite tempting to sell half my shares straight away rather than wait 1-6 months for the cash (and risk a significantly higher counter offer being made and accepted). I think We both have similar averages so would be doubling our money at 58p. The time value of money and ones approach to risk.....

Obviously there could be another extension and do you top slice in that circumstance before too much of a dip.

The above are Hypotheticals and not asking you to answer. Make the point in case it is of interest and/or use for others on here. I have learned lots from the likes of you, Dimitri, Darren etc.

Hoping there is a deal announced before 24th.

Rox - In your experience of trading and I am asking as you appear forthright and honest, how long does it tend to be between an offer being approved by the board and the shareholders receiving their funds? Read they need 75% of votes to approve the sale price. So I assume there would be an EGM.

For some and hence my question, if the price is close to the offer price (eg 60p if sell via broker rather than, for example, a 65p if resolutions approved) it may be worth selling between offer and completion to potentially avoid missing out on some covid bargains. May be academic in that TalkTalk seemed to automatically rise to the offer price. But may depend here on what multiple of the share price the offer is. Hope that makes sense.

Saga unbelievable today. Do not think Solg will do similar but could be 20-30% up if AA offer lands /approved by the Board on Friday and funds received in a month.

Hoping for an offer as if this reaches 40p late Friday I will be tempted to cash in the profit element of my holding.