Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
That's my worry..completely agree that we've had a lot of luck from a macro perspective and the broker upgrade was completely unexpected. We just need MM to keep his goddamn mouth shut and not go on one of his "crusades" again. It's really not much to ask for, but then again, he's loose cannon
Let's hope that is just the start and not a false start!
Broker notes aren't always best way to gauge a company's prospects (given that they're normally talking from the perspective of their own book), however, I'm sure any THG shareholder will be grateful for gains whichever way they come!
The acid test will be Aprils update alongside whatever MM decides to put out on his social media around that period. His posts can make a good update read badly or just generally p!ss off the market. I don't think he will change his approach, let's hope the numbers speak for themselves.
LD - about 2 years ago, I would have said (and I believe I did say) similar things - what's the point in moaning about the stock price? Either deal with it or sell and move on.
Let's just say I'm a little bit more understanding of the frustrations of a THG shareholder now!
Let people vent, it's ok. Of course, I can't stand those who ramp/deramp with no real substance, but hey, that's the price we pay of being on a BB
Yep, agreed. Once again, April is KEY.
On a side note, I sent an email to IR 2 weeks ago and heard nothing, not even a holding response. This is unacceptable for a listed company, I've never experienced this is any of the other shares I've invested in - some far smaller than THG. I'll be sending a terse email asking for this to be escalated, but of course, I don't expect for anything to happen.
Well SIH, I do recall that the last time you felt "positively" about THG, the apollo bid was announced almost straight after. Tell me Steve, are your spider senses tingling this time??
Hi Crafty,
In my view, he was under more pressure when the share price tanked to 35p with the headwinds of inflation/whey prices and everything else.
The "shorts" on this board have always been there and were probably much more vocal a few years ago. TBH I've never taken much notice of these individuals - they are not professionals, they are just average joes like you and I. Neither have I taken much notice of the "rampers" for the same reason.
If he doesn't pull a rabbit out of the hat, then the share price will do what it always does - drop like a stone. Then it will recover, then drop again, rinse and repeat. It will need something EXTRAORDINARY to occur to realise anything like "reasonable value," e.g. Sofina/Balderton/QIA put out a statement saying they align with KLSO or a hostile bid for the company from an activist shareholder. The fact that there is just silence tells us everything.
Like I said, I hope I am wrong and that things are going on behind the scenes that we are not privy to. Yes, it's fair to assume that some pressure has been put on MM given the removal of Vivek/Ian Mac, MM and his pal building a stake in KLSO and possibly the Ingenuity redundancies. But this alone isn't enough for the SP to shoot up in the short term.
Well this is the thing Crafty. Despite everything, I still don't think that he's under that much pressure.
1. We used to say that it was the Golden Share that was stopping any meaningful bids. Well, that went in mid 2023 (a year later than planned, I hasten to add). Since then, no bids have been released publicly in the market.
2. Whilst MM has made the occasional throw-away comment about "numerous" bids for nutrition, the details have NEVER been shared the wider shareholder base (i.e. PIs). We only know some details about Apollo and the suspicious Belerion/King St bid.
3. MM (unfortunately) has been making "FU" LinkedIn posts for years now. We all believed (at the time) that he was making these because he had an ace up his sleeve (otherwise, why would you expose yourself to ridicule?) but this was not the case. He clearly has a few screws loose.
4. Barring OVMK, No current institutional shareholder (i.e Sofina, Balderton, QIA) has:
(a) publicly voiced displeasure over the THG strategy/share price
(b) increased their stake (to show alignment with strategy and future prospects)
5. No new shareholders have entered the fray despite the low share price. There are no institutions nor activists who making their presence felt.
6. The chairman (Lord Allen) has done next to nothing to improve THG relations with the City. MMs constant posts about London being fked and regretting listing are a prime example of that. This was the first thing that you would expected the Lord to curtail.
Therefore, it appears to me that existing shareholders are caught in a value trap. MM is under no visible pressure to change anything. Of course, I could be wrong and the big investors may be in his ear every day, but on the outside it doesn't appear to be the case. Happy to hear other views.
I think that this point is generally well understood and accepted on the BB Crafty. What is probably not understood, however, is the appropriate measure to value a company now choosing to base its value on profitability rather than growth. Yes, we are aware of the SOTP calculation, but otherwise, I'm not fully convinced that it is worth considerably more than the current price without at least a couple of years of decent profits behind us. THG is stuck in limbo really, it hasn't recently grown at the required rate to be valued as a growth company, neither does it have a track record of consistently generating profits for a meaningful period. In a nutshell, I think it will take a couple of years to reach the "correct" valuation unless there is sell-off (or partial sell-off/partnership) of one of the divisions.
Come on Ste, at least give it an hour before you castigate THG's price. I'm sure by then there would have been a sell trade which will drop it like a stone and then you can say I told you so. There has literally been negligible volume in the first 35 mins of trading and we know that average daily volume is currently pretty low regardless.