Member Info for notgreedy

Still some will put their own spin on the figures
https://www.investing.com/equities/glencore-balance-sheet

Sp had a bit of bounce, than a steady decline, suspension of buyback, collapse in sp, 25% new shares issued to prop balance sheet..... all that in less than 12 months, of the topography my head. I usually start shorting when buybacks is announced, RR. NXT, ..cose buyback is smoke screen. Glen still has sizeable debt, yes training should be good and mining mostly profitable, but reducing liabilities or increasing returns to shareholders should be business and financial sense. I can’t go long on glen now but should it get again near mcap £55bln or £4 I’ll restart short.
Sentiment is that next year world economise wouldn’t be so buzzing and in those scenarios miners get hit hardest.

Or somebody really just sold 86m shares? If so, with us to open short season soon, not looking good for my beloved glen.

U r partially right. They did talk about destroying value ( first shp bod buying bax now tak buying shp) more than sell sell. To me not a massive difference but still. Now they are not saying buy buy just should TO get shareholders approval, all being equal and not sell out of Tak bringing sp down, plenty room left for longs to profit. IMO a proportion of big shareholders, who did not already, will be reducing their holding in tak since upside in Tak sp Is negligible comparing to downside. Alpha has not discovered wheel but stating obvious. Can’t see bigger swings than £38-42.50 range till next year or some dramatic news - rumours popping out, IMO only. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4180926-can-shire-buyout-stopped?utm_source=partner_investingcom_feed

Short Just in case this is double top. Looking for 1-200 drop from here, if I can do double tap. I�m guessing that more shorts are being reduced driving price up. Tomorrow could be profit taking before weekend. Let�s see...

Shp�s Sp is likely to drift down till shareholders approve this project, then might rebound a bit. As to �48-49, imo, not likely that we will see here. IMO, tp could be about �45 should deal complete, 10% of our wanted sp if Tak sp is not to drop more than 20% in total ( from sp just before announcement) by completion all ( �v� ,$v � � v $, geopolitics, sentiment...) being equal. As is, no reason to stay invested in Tak as current shareholders selling hence drop of 3.41% just last night on Tokyo market. Nasdaq premarket indicates 1.75% lower opening, reflecting in current sp here. At some point during h2 off this year voices saying markets had it to good for to long could be louder, Donald J. Might become vegan or start playing tennis and send shivers down markets....on a plus side another megalomaniac might emerge and offer more than total enterprise value for shp

Of my exact reasons for negativity on shp over the last few years. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4177121-shire-takeda-merger-classical-destruction-value?utm_source=partner_investingcom_feed And reasons for halving my remaining half of long at 42.50 taking short hedge from there. None of this might turn up to be the final outcome but all being equal �-$, geopolitics, general state of economic, IMO, mathematically most likely outcome. Wheel is span again place your bets...

Exuberance and panic have same madness pattern. Will take some time for sp to get to some likely realistic level, determenated by �experts �. �300 mil in cash will allow this dog ( by mcap v net profit and shareholders return-divi) to burn through for couple of years, possibly sustaining sp on this dot com pe.reducing likelihood of ocdo being bought out. Grocery Shopping in US very different to Europe, eventually shorters will return with vigour, but in between ride it whichever way at some point. I could be wrong and Ocado could be more valued than apple google and amazon together, should it continue % rise for just coupe lof months, but is it likely?

150 points drop in 40 odd min, short closed greed might be good but my name is Notgreedy ...

Mcap over �6.5bln hmm, short squeeze, I�m filling positivity negative on retraction- recalculation- regrading re whatever hence short looking for 1-200 points drop in sp from here. Tight limits and stops. May madness go on

I�m hearing that new extension might be requested followed by third so both shareholders could be assured that proper due diligence was done and shareholders in both cos should give their blessings for this project. If this is to be the case shps sp could drift down to �34 till formal bid made. Bid will be made,eventually, Happy to close all my longs in &42.5-�45 range and take a small short then just in case. All this jmo, could be wrong too

U and I might mot be willing to give away 1/2 of our co, but that is what shp did when Bax bought. 1/2 of co with some potential might be far more than whole one of co with clearly diminishing potential, combining with Relatively cheap debt it makes sense for Tak to go ahead with this bs.power of financial engineering must not be underestimated, by d time ( if TO concluded) financial impact becomes clear mountain man, Tak bod and shp bod would�ve extracted such monetary benefits from this exercise that would shrug of repetitional damage. As to second and any further bidders coming forward, imo, it could be only someone who wants to be spiteful to Tak and maybe shp ( if it scapers this TO just to pullout at 11th hour). Why pay � enterprise value � if you can wait for market to panic and get a good deal for you self?

No leaks, yet Tak up 1.3% on Tokyo m and 3% on adr, shp down 3% adr?

As financial engineering goes mountain man topped shp�s Bod.back to my saying ; if u and I can find someone crazy enough to lend us money we could grow business by acquisition like this megalomaniacs. Shp bod did everything right thas far, refused 1,2,3 offer and is in continuous talks with Tak. They know this is their last free lunch, regardless what happens from here they are gone, so might as well take a bit of a golden goodbyes. Maintain man can�t backdown now, sadly I have no instrumentals available to shortTak,( down over 6% yesterday and shp adr up 2.2%). Markets is betting on a deal being done, our �26 paper might go below �21 cash, so imo sp over my tp �42.5 would be fantastic but I�m not likely to wait for it. I might take long short on shp then just in case whiles come off cos both bods and shareholders have to approve it. If by any miracle another megalomaniac enters d game I hope it would be one I have instruments to short. Of course I could be wrong

No I had to do it manually, to fast move, 2 longs taken automatically cos limit put at �42.50 ( futures) went higher but ...if we finish - 130 today this short will be taken too. Not that I wouldn�t consider taking long in meantime .... rodeo rodeo..

Thanks Ted, managed to digit out. With market hammering Tak I think a penny over �42 would be good outcome for shp shareholders. Shp total enterprises is � valued � at $66bln, so not bad for shp bod too.if successful this will come back to bite Tak bod back, but we should all be out by then, or will I short Tac then, o yes I will !

As I mentioned shp bod will reject first offer, not knowing that it would be this generous. Now d questions is how much of it was cash and what would be takeof d market swapping one lot of not carrying not sharing bod for another ( inept) willing to pay this kind of money.. now that half of my long was taken out by this millisecond surge I fill relaxed. Must say riding a mare is a pleasure

Now question is how much of $61bln will be in cash. Tak sp would likely be hammered ?

Possibly, I felt uncomfortably long heavy again hence taken a small short hedge. I�m. Thinking of evening at �40ish should i sp get there soonish.

I�ll be taking little short before deys end. How much could it be wrong we will find out soon enough. Viva Texas, viva rodeo