China’s fast-deteriorating economy5 Apr 2022 15:34
Knowing what is going on inside the Chinese economy is a dark art, but the extract below gives an idea that a train smash is unfolding:
'For a more timely take on China’s fast-deteriorating economy, some analysts are turning to less conventional indicators. For example, Baidu, a popular search engine and mapping tool, provides a daily mobility index, based on tracking the movement of smartphones. Over the seven days to April 3rd, this index was more than 48% below its level a year ago.
The Baidu index is best suited to tracking movement between cities, says Ting Lu of Nomura, a bank. To gauge the hustle and bustle within cities, he uses other indicators, such as subway trips. Over the week ending April 2nd, the number of metro journeys in eight big Chinese cities was nearly 34% below its level from a year ago. In locked-down Shanghai, where many subway lines are now closed, the number of trips was down by nearly 93%, a worse drop than the city suffered in early 2020.
The two numbers that worry Mr Lu the most track the economy’s distribution system, specifically couriers and lorries. In the week ending April 1st, an index of express deliveries by courier companies was nearly 27% below its level at a similar point last year. Over the same period, an index of road freight compiled by Wind, a data provider, shows a fall of 12.8%. The decline looks especially stark because this indicator was increasing by more than 7% at the end of last year.'
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/omicron-is-dealing-a-big-blow-to-chinas-economy/21808576