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CMC - exactly right. Depressed stock prices but huge cash flows make for a perfect time to return capital. I do wish I3e bought into this more.

Can’t see Eric Nuttall commenting on I3 energy for a while. As has been said, he is 100% focused on shareholder returns and has stated he’s looking at companies giving back 40-50% of fcf. He wants dividend yields at 15% and he wants share buy backs (due to underlying issues in Canadian o&g stocks pricing). He spoke at length the other week why no sane company would drill for more oil just now when they can buy back the business in 2-3 years.

He has a point, especially i3e who if they put 50% fcf into share buy backs, could substantially decrease share count in a year. Then they can start a drilling campaign, funded by debt assuming oil prices hold. Long term that’s where value is. I3e aren’t going down that route, opting instead for a modest dividend and reinvesting in drilling. In a market that doesn’t see true value, I do question if it is the right strategy. It also relies on oil prices holding at these levels (or above say $50-60) for several years, or else the cyclical nature will wipe the value of growth.

Clearly Majid and Graham believe pricing in Canada will return to 4-5 times ntm. If it does then happy days, their strategy will of worked brilliantly. It does however rely on external factors and events, where as a shareholder returns strategy is far more controlled. For the record, I’m heavy into I3e so not deramping, just think it’s an interesting discussion.

Tend to agree. Graham seems excellent at both his job and the wider picture. Never been overly convinced by Majid. At the heart of this is money and ultimately Graham had won and lost, like many of us, and is now on the same journey. That aligns him to shareholders in a way that Majid isn’t.

Interesting to note in the market presentation that the board did, they said they were finalizing the remainder of 21 and 22 drilling programme and would update the market in a couple of weeks. That was quite a while ago now. Reading into the RNS, it states they are finalising it and will let the market know "later in the year". I really wish the board were a bit more careful with their words. Enough people have issues with believing their RNS's and these types of timeline inconsistencies just add to the frustration of things not happening on time.

It’s bounced off the lower rising support line quite well since opening. This is really the lowest we want it to go or else we are in for some trouble. If that rising line breaks to the south then there is technically nothing to stop it having a huge drop.

No news and uncertainty kills aim shares unfortunately. Buying in at previous placing price seems a no brainer but unfortunately already far too heavy in this stock. Wouldn’t be sensible to go further.

Bulb in special administration today - they supply 6% of the UK energy market. Gone bust due to energy crisis and skyrocketing price of gas, compounded by issues with the new russian pipeline approval being suspended. When will the genertal public clock on to the fact that there needs to be a transition and that involves oil and gas. Glad to hear the government is supporting all current north sea licenses. Canada being gas heavy will be valuable going forward. 2022 has the potential to be a massive year for i3e. Finish this churn of shares, announce new debt and Canadian operations and then maybe even Serenity drill. Lot's to look forward to near term. Let's try and get on those new year "stocks to follow" lists.

Cenkman - just to follow on to your point about churning all the new shares. Many of them have been taken by institutional investors who are keeping hold of their shares and not selling into the market. So there is not quite 400m to get through.

The sp at the moment with the macroeconomic environment and oil/gas prices is really quite surprising.

"mandated transaction arranger to assist i3 in issuing a new debt facility by which it expects to expand its business through asset development and/or potential acquisitions."

I suspect this is the precursor to Serenity going ahead as a largely debt funded venture. Farm-in partner obviously dragging their heels and the board are going it alone, as they said they would. Okay well all or nothing in the next 6 months here.

G_G_G - agree. Very frustrating. What we have witnessed in the past is that news flow does generate significant gains in mcap. Not sure why there is so little news just now. All other companies issue RNS when minor improvements are made to production. More operational updates would not go a miss.

GGG - I do agree it may not "kill" i3e due to good fcf in Canada, but the company would pay dearly for a failed drill on a 100% basis. To the point where I would sell out as it could take a long time to recover. Aim does not always provide fair value as we are acutely aware of with the current mcap.

My understanding is there will initially be one well and it is to step out and test the field size. If that drill failed, then they would not progress with others. So if that drill was a free carry, there is limited risk on i3e part. I may be wrong with that assumption.

Regardless, I'd much rather crack on with an extensive Canada drill program and hold off on Serenity until a partner is found. Ultimately, if it is such a good prospect, the board will find a partner. If other companies are not willing to take a risk on it with current oil price predictions, then perhaps it is a warning signal.

Totally agree cashandcard. Personally I think the board have done an excellent job to turnaround a dying company into a 20k boepd producer in a couple of years. There’s a solid business in Canada with plenty room to the upside through market re-rating to peers and drilling. Serenity is a bonus and if I3e can get a third party to take that risk then great, let’s do it. But I really don’t want to risk the company going under by another flip of the coin in the North Sea. A fail at the drill bit would be the end of I3e if it was self funded. I know people will say the Canadian fcf would carry the cost but it’s also the perceived failure to the market that would be costly. Yes, if it pays off then great but too big a risk on our own (imho).

Market wide crash is something we have to be wary of here. Even if price of oil holds, we all know that low caps are hit hard during the sell off and take a long time to recover. Ideally by the summer, i3e are in a position that we can start to leverage out. Personally, when this hits £400m mcap (roughly 35p), I'll likely bail out most of my holdings. I'm targeting this with a successful drill at Serenity completing q2 and an aggressive oil targeted drilling campaign in Canada through H1.

Is it available anywhere?

It’s a valid point. These guys are well paid and shouldn’t underestimate how important it is to be aligned with shareholders. Since the Toscana deal the directors haven’t been aligned. Buying in the open market when they can, even small amounts, could do the overall mcap a world of good. After all, they are in control of the company and if they had a clear pathway to make money, why not back themselves? Even if it’s only a couple percent of their salary.

I'm not sure share consolidation ever achieves anything?

Doc Jones is a trader, he ramps what he wants to sell. Fair enough if you follow his trades you can also make money. I used to do this with David Lenigas and it worked very well but it’s not the life for me anymore.

It’s funny how negative this forum is after only two to three weeks of a minor correction. Look at the year chart, it’s extremely strong and will continue to do so. There will be another break to the top soon.

Very interesting that Eric Nuttall believes with the market at such depressed prices, every company should be doing share buy backs with their spare cash flow. I thought the same would be a good strategy for i3e as the company is so under priced. Surprised it is not the boards intentions to do so.

TheHickster - it is undervalued here but not ridiculously. For Canada assets I3e should probably be trading around 18-20p, given stocks often trade at a discount to true value. When doing your calculations always factor in the gas mix and that most of the production is not oil.

They had 159m according to I3e website, this tr1 states they have 156m. Does appear they’ve sold a small amount.

I did!