Member Info for nomadicinvestor

Very strange why this still hasn’t landed. 9th May was last update (6 weeks after Q1 ended). We’re now 8 weeks since Q2 finished. Can’t really see a reason why an update would take longer than this to compile?

The April annual report gives a chart on page 6 of approved 2022 drilling. In Q1 there was to be 4 wells in clearwater, 2 test wells in clearwater, 2 in falher (central), 2 in glauc (central) and 1 in montney. It also states "Early results from the above mentioned activities position i3 to achieve or exceed the initial expectations noted above".

When are we going to get some results? At the end of 2021 Majid said they would release news as and when it was available and that 2022 would be news flow heavy due to the amount of drilling. Very strange to then not post a single result by the end of July.

Not posted in a while but was wondering where all the news flow is from the drilling in Canada? I3e have a huge drilling campaign, half of which was meant to have happened in H1. Majid stated they would release updates as and when progress is made but there hasn't been anything. Very strange.

Feel the sell off has been way over done, look forward to when it ends. Kept all of my shares.

I3e in its current operations is too small for Eric Nuttall. Maybe once Clearwater is up and running things will change. Nice start to the week, can hopefully maintain a steady recovery to above 30p and beyond.

When are these 16 drills happening? Anyone know?

If an ii wants to sell a chunk of their shares that they are 200% up on then that’s fair enough. Doing it this way rather than drip feeding into the market for months is much better for I3e shareholders. The new holders paying 27p gives a better baseline than an ii that paid 5p and 11p.

Surprised by market reaction as (almost) nothing has changed

ElSteve - I'm with you. I3e has good exposure to Serenity but also has very good protection. Should Serenity fail, there will be a drop in sp but that drop would be fully backed by the Canadian assets. The sp would recover. In EOG it is binary and if the drill fails then could easily see 50-75% drop in a day, with no real chance of recovering that money back any time soon. After Liberator, I would not risk my capital in that way unless preparing to set aside money as a gamble. My capital will stay in i3e.

The markets are so irrational and it’s why money can be made. If someone said 6 months ago that oil would be at 100 dollars you wouldn’t believe it, now it’s dropped from 130 to 100 it’s seen as a bad thing. Markets price over do perceived negative news more and more over the years I’ve been investing. With positive news barely keeping up. Happy to hold here, the fcf at year end will be unreal if prices hold at these levels. I very much think they will.

SP has been great over the last couple months. It’s allowed a cool off period, especially since 20p is 4 or 5 bags for a lot of new investors. Healthy pause before drilling news starts to come through.

Noted this before but i3’s currently hedging 22.5% of production and this drops to 4.5% at the end of March. If they could lock in some new hedging around these numbers of WTI, it will bode very well for NTM fcf. Doubling the drill program seems a no brainier now.

I'm in two minds about investing in EOG. £11m mcap (£22m once placing) for 25% of Serenity that could be worth £140m just as 3c reserves (based on WH Ireland note targeting 115m 3c worth £553m at 6.73$ barrel). If Serenity strikes, then it will have a bigger impact on EOG value than i3e.

BUT what I am worried about is they have just done a 50% placing - it took i3e half a year to churn through similar. Above that, if the drill succeeds they will have to do another massive placing to fund the development. How dilution and placings will affect their sp is unclear.

EOG share price has halved and they have placed 50% more shares, so the mcap is the same as pre-Serenity farm in. So you can effectively buy into Serenity for free through EOG just now.

Agree Robpug - I think Serenity is too small a prospect for mid or majors to be interested. They would want it 80% and that wouldn't sit with i3e. I suspect this is where the stumbling block has been, i3e wanting to retain a large chunk now they are flush with cash.

Think I'll pop 10k in EOG. £11m mcap for 25% of Serenity? Based on my previous post that could be worth £140m just as 3c reserves or a lot more when producing. Could quite easily 10 bag on Serenity success (apologies for rampy tone).

Updated note. i3e targeting 115m 3c potential worth £553m or £415m net at 75% (using 6.73$ barrel). That equates to around 30p. If oil stays around 100$ then when this starts producing it will be worth a lot more than 6.73 a barrel.

I liked the Europa CEO statement of Serenity is a "late-stage appraisal and development asset" with " significant near-term value".

Apologies to post on other companies but I've been researching 88e in an effort to understand their sp in comparison to copl. Interestingly 88e recently bought only 300 boepd and 2m 2P reserves for a consideration of $9.7m. If you applied that value metric to i3e's Canadian assets, it would value i3e at £480m (or 42p) assuming 20k boepd. Still undervalued based on current production.

With growing production through at least 17 wells, increasing oil and gas prices, likely enhanced dividends, and now a North Sea drill targeting 75% share of 200m barrels in Q3 - it's going to be a very very good year.

The increase in the price of oil and gas has definitely shifted the goal northwards. I used to say I would be out at £400m mcap (35p) as this is a figure I have consistently seen reached by junior/ mid O&G companies but often one not held long term. Given the macroeconomics we find ourselves in, then perhaps I'll stay in longer. I do agree that successful Serenity farm out and drill in Q3 will see i3e over 50p.

GGG - I think the smaller party idea is a reaction on them have to organise funding and it taking time. We know the drill isn't that expensive so reasonable to assume Repsol would have the finance available to commit. Could be wrong.

The wording has certainly changed about the Serenity counter party. It was initially that I3e were waiting funding commitments (ie they weren’t going to partner in and then postpone drilling for a year) to yesterday’s line that the partner is organising/ waiting to get funding confirmed (paraphrasing, apologies). Very different and makes me think the partner is not a major player, which is fine. They did seem confident but it’s been like that for a year now.

Big thing announced for Serenity is the deal includes a carry on the first drill. So essentially getting all the upside with minimal risk, can see why they are holding for a partner.

Energy stocks are the only ones that should in theory be protected from any large sell off. Be interesting to know i3e's FCF @ $97 brent. In April the hedged volume drops from 22% to 4.5%.

I think now is the time to go it alone at Serenity. I've always been cautious with this and suggested I would prefer to spend the money in Canada for the lower but safer gains. At a $100 oil environment, the potential gains from a step out well in Serenity is more than worth the risk. Just don't step out too far this time.

Completely expected a drop off around the 20p mark. It happened at 5p, 10p, 15p and will happen at 20, 25, 30 - it's just the price hitting peoples round number targets. The price has almost doubled within 2 months on little fundamental news so fair enough if some traders will take the cash and move on. Personally, I am here until £400m mcap then will scale out my position but retain about 50% of my holding.