Member Info for nomadicinvestor

20p? 7 minutes to go....

I've been in i3e since Glenwick. Some won't know what Glenwick was or that Cora Gold was spud out at the same time as i3e - odd isn't it. Thankfully due to buying a home in mid 2018, I sold out most my holding at the time over 110p. But I bought in again from 20p down to 3.64p. I remember this lurking around 5p for ages, with Graham and Majid telling a convincing story how undervalued i3e was. I fully bought into it, even after the Liberator drill (which I don't think was a issue with Graham or Majid personally, it is just the inherent risk of oil exp, along with demanding investors).

Ultimately at 5p people said it would struggle to hit 7, at 7 people said lucky for 10p, it touched but fell down from 12p a few times and then lurked around that price for ages. There was a big question over 15p and now it is gone. My point is, look at the value not the share price. I think i3e offers great value and fortunately that value is always increasing and the share price will keep going up with it. Over the next year or two I fully expect to see 20, 30, 40, 50p go.

Thanks for sharing Mattbuoy - a very interesting read. Hopefully the board agree a similar drilling campaign on our acreage. The method of having three rigs permanently, two for development well drilling and one for exploration wells is a good strategy. Headwater are getting circa 90% oil from the wells, interesting it is heavy oil at between 19-21 API. The potential is huge at Clearwater and see no reason why it isn't extensively drilled with all the spare cash.

Not sure how many follow OilandGasTracker on Twitter- a very interesting account for data. I3e, even after recent moves is still only just catching up to the low end peer group for EV per flowing barrel. Another 50% rise would put I3e around average, though we know it’s gas heavy here. The other metric of EV per 2p reserves, I3e would need to double or triple to align to average. Still a long way to go here.

I watched Question Time last night, for my sins, and they discussed price of energy. Interestingly for the first time there seemed to be an acknowledgement of underinvestment in oil and gas and that it isn’t the enemy. Attitudes and morals will soon change as soon as people are paying 54% more for their heating.

Vmax, I do agree the dividends are slightly more arbitrary here just now than in a ftse 100 when prices fluctuate daily. But you have to look at the graph of the company, it's on the upwards. Unless you trade on a daily basis, you are holding out for the long term capital appreciation. While the company is making money, it makes total sense to give that back. Over a year it may not seem a lot but over 4 or 5 it mounts up. I topped up some at 3.64p and a fair bit more when it hovered around 5p for ages. The effective divi return rate on those purchases is already circa 25%. When the sp is 40p and i3e are returning 7-10% dividends we will all be thankful of the big cheques "in the mail".

WH Ireland broker note updates target to 37p (from 35p) with 30p the Canadian assets. Mainly due to increasing WTI and gas baseline for 2022.

Let's hold above 15p today, only managed one day in July and one day in January. With newsflow, look set to push into the 20's imo.

Really interesting approach going to a monthly dividend. I like the idea, as always disliked those who buy and sell around dividends. If you want the dividends here you have to buy and hold, seems fair!

Also keeps the news flow up. Pretty good if each month they announced say a 10-20% increase on the baseline 0.7% payment. Every month confirming assets “performed above expectations”.

A slightly odd article and slightly odd timing. Why do this if Serenity deal was close? You wouldn’t. Which makes me think it is not close or counter parties are not committing and they hope this will spur them one, which it won’t.

“We remain pretty optimistic that we are going to get a farm-in to Serenity and we may be able to announce something quite soon.” - usually I’d be happy to read “may be able to announce quite soon”, but with Serenity quite soon could mean six months. Really a bit baffled by this article and it’s purpose.

On a positive front, Zak Mir thinks we’re about to break north of the long held 15/16p resistance. Could tie in nicely with many operational updates and divi.

Tony, you’re probably correct that the main reason Nuttal doesn’t invest now is because i3e are too small rather than having any issue with the business model. But if he waits until the mcap is mid-tier and £500m+ to invest, then the proposition is different and I3e will be more about shareholder returns than multi-bagging shareprices. I3e would then align into his strategy as opposed to his strategy changing. I am only going off what he has said and while I’d love to say I think he will buy in, I don’t believe i3e is an investment for him (at this time). Hopefully proven wrong as he has a good following.

Don’t think Eric Nuttal will be buying in. He’s been quite clear that in his view o&g companies should 100% focus on returning maximum capital over the next few years rather than grow production or continue exploration. I agree with a lot of his viewpoints, this one not so much. But I do think it rules out I3e unless he has a change of tact. Personally (and I think most of us believe) the attraction here is the combination of dividends and growth which has the ability to generate circa 100% returns.

Agree GGG. I’m not a fan of only updating the market every quarter, stacking it with positive news, then wondering why it isn’t reflected in the sp. Regular news flow is key to positive performance and I3e should have plenty. With the price of oil and constant media coverage about energy prices, it seems for the first time since Greta there’s an appetite for o&g stocks for certain minded investors.

Has this board always been this busy? I think people need to calm down and let this play out. There are a huge amount of massively undervalued oil and gas plays in the market. Companies paying large dividends and that can buy back their entire share capital in under two years. COPL only produces 2k bopd and has no proof of concept for the 1-3k bopd wells. £60m mcap is not a disaster and I see it bounding around 30-40p for a while. There will not be an imminent JV, these take months/ years to agree and JV partners will want definition on the field first. We know there is permission in for 4 wells, we have been told this is likely in August and that it is funded from cash in the bank. Fluctuations up to those wells will happen, it’s no issue. If they come through and flow at the rates expected, then this will massively re-rate and start to reflect the OIP.

Would also be interested in an update on hedging. The October update had the current 22% production hedging dropping to 4.5% in April. The quantity and price quite important given commodity price predictions for 2022.

Could someone point me in the direction that says a CPR is in progress? I’ve read a lot about it on this board and Twitter, but not through official means or in an interview. Would be much appreciated.

Bots - my missus asked me last night how the price of oil was doing, must have her eye on something!

Markets are absolutely mental today. Always have wondered how a general market sell off causes all stocks to crash, even those that have negligible trading.

Reading the advance energy rns going back, it sounds like a no hoper. Way under expectations. Not in it myself, feel sorry reading through the posts on the lse. Sounds like it’s the end of some people’s trading past time, which is a shame. Previous RNS’s claiming the field could be producing 40k bopd by end of next year no doubt drew people in. I personally now only buy after discoveries as there’s still good money to be made. Would much rather get 50% profit rather than risk 80/90% capital in the hope I get 100% profit. Risk/ reward doesn’t stack up and unfortunately it’s often those with less money, hoping for life changing games that end up losing. The biggest worry is a lot of people saying “might as well stay in” - they should sell while it’s still got a £9m mcap, that will easily drop over the coming weeks.

Updated research note. 35p fair value, 28p Canada.

Interesting comparison table of Canadian peers - average trading EV/2022 CF of 4.4x. I3e currently lowest on list by some margin at 2.8x. 37% below average and 60% below upper performers. If I3e trade at the average multiple the share price would be over 20p.

What is still very clear is I3e need more oil in their mix, the 20k boepd is a bit flattering when so much is gas.

Rewatched some old interviews today and picked up that Majid said 45% of the 17 planned wells for 2022 will be in q1 "so there will be lots of news in q1". Wonder when this will start to trickle through, will take some time to drill 8 wells and assume wont all happen at end of q1. Could be the catalyst for the push up to 20p zone.

Be interesting to see Tony's (or anyone else that has taken the time) excel sheet with $100 oil plugged in. £1b valuation is not out the question if Serenity comes in, even without Serenity I think Clearwater has the potential to make a £1b company in a couple years. The oil weighted wells there will have a big impact.