Member Info for nomadicinvestor

Lots of talk about next years dividend. It is in page 6 of the latest presentation:

2022e Dividend(5) £15,350,900 $23,640,386
2023e Dividend(6) £20,395,712 $31,409,398

(6) Based on the current run rate dividend forecast

Looks like a potential 30% uplift. Let’s wait and see.

Painfully slow here. Been in a year (I know that’s a lot less than some) and the progress is lacking. Each RNS reads like an excuse sheet. Clearly issues with the field and the infrastructure - it’s hard to know if another team would of had the same problems or would of picked them up through technical development. I’m keeping my holding and fingers crossed for JV coming through. These take a long time though and even if signed this year, it will be well into middle of next year before any field plans are implemented. Production gains wouldn’t be until later in 2023. So unless this timeline works for you, copl probably isn’t the place to be.

It's unbelievable that i3e are trading at 2 x NOI. An update that increased production to 23k boepd but also noted the reduced NOI due to strip prices. Everyone knows these are weaker than earlier in the year and hence i3e are trading at 25p and not over 30p. Seems well over done today. I'm happy taking my dividend and waiting for a higher dividend next year. At some point this will need to re-align closer to Canadian peers. I hope i3e sell or release Serenity, it's not worth the distraction imho.

“Has the buyback vs. variable dividend debate finally been settled? You can't value what you cant' measure (variables) vs. buybacks = production per share growth + underlying bid for the stock + enduring dividend increase as fewer shares are left to service with FCF.”

Been lots of debate on the forum about this. In my view, the news from Serenity has confirmed this should now be part of our strategy. Buybacks along with a dividend are the way to take advantage of what the CEO says is a mcap at least 50% under valued. If the mcap is so low, then surely buy backs are a great use of excess cash and best value for shareholders?

I don’t mind it doesn’t say the expected bopd increase. Let’s start the flaring and then release the results. If they said 900bopd increase then only managed 600, it would be seen as a failure. Best to release news as and when rather than setting mini targets. Long term goals is a different matter.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/exploration-production/450496/i3-energy-serenity-tain-repsol-sinopec/

Interesting article as well on energy voice - you get two free articles a month before having to sign up. While disappointing, looks like Serenity can and will be developed around the original well. They noted the appraisal was a 3.5km step out, which is quite far. Have the board been over ambitious once again? The sands and mapping of this area are known to be challenging. What is positive, is that Tain is only around 10m barrels recoverable so the original Serenity area could provide the same. If it is large enough for Repsol then definitely large enough for i3e.

Could of given the sp a real leg up but isn’t to be. Still had a great year here and no one can complain. Glad I didn’t buy any Europa, after being in for Liberator I said I’d never buy a stock riding on one well. Risk reward was always best with I3e as the risk was so limited. Look forward to a positive Q4 in Canada.

Gusto - agreed. Wish the board was a bit more clear in RNS and said as such. The financial hit is nothing to I3e. Personally, I’d forget Serenity and Liberator West. Even the ‘discovery’. It’s clearly not a great field, too complicated and Dana knew this and were quite happy to get rid. Focus should be on getting the oil weighted Canadian assets flowing.

wwal - not sure if you are referring to my post as not genuine? If you are then I suggest you re-read it with your head out of the sand. If it was as straight forward as copl having a billion barrels of oil and that's it, then we wouldn't be sitting on a £40m mcap. The nonsense written on this board sometimes is unreal, happy clapping does no one any favours.

Invested here but not surprised at the sp, don't believe it is chronically under valued. Reality is that copl produce less than 2k boepd, they have a numerous operational issues which are not yet fully resolved. The barron flats discovery is only one well, it needs properly appraised. The financing of debt is also a big one, again not resolved. Combine this with a share that will of historically burned a lot of investors and a ceo who does not carry much good will and has suffered from constantly missing deadlines. Yes, big potential but these pieces need to come together.

The next 2-3 months are massive to resolve all the above and hit the ground running in 2023, hopefully with a JV. On the fence in terms of topping up as this will be the bottom assuming things go well but I'm not 100% convinced. Will likely wait for a couple of things to happen and will happily pay a bit more for less risk.

Thanks Tony, so likely over the 24k by years end. The figures show how important Simonette could be for the company. If it does produce 1000 boepd of largely oil then getting 4 or 5 of them drilled early next year would be transformational.

I know it is for health, so may not be timed, but the nature of the statement did make it feel like a departure that’s overdue in terms of his recovery. Feel like now is actually the best time to step out as he knows the positive impact Serenity will have. Always give bad news first in the markets. Positive result at Serenity and I3e will be on easy street and Graham can concentrate on getting his health in order.

Like others have said, Ryan was instrumental in bringing Toscanna to I3e and he is a large part of why this company is still around and thriving.

The three weeks left on the drill can’t come soon enough. Have to say I’ve not been invested in a drill like this since ECO a few years back. A bit like waiting for Christmas!

Read in yesterdays WHIreland note that 20 wells have been drilled so far (13 in production, 7 to complete) and that there are a further 15 wells expected to be drilled this year. Now the 13 coming on production has put i3e up to 22k bopd. Are the remaining 7 going to put production to the 24k or is it the 7 plus the further 15 to be drilled by years end? 22 wells giving 2k bopd extra production only works out at 90 bopd per well. 7 wells would average 285 bopd (sounds more realistic).

Basically, are we in for an unexpected rise in production with these extra 15 wells or have I misread/understood the information. I have re-read announcements and it is not overly clear.

It has been Graham’s direction, leadership and concise presentation skills that kept me invested here. A real shame to see him go. A company isn’t one person though and it sounds like this has been planned for a long time.

It would be interesting At some point to get a breakdown how each field has performed. 7 wells going to bring in 2k barrels (suspect might bring in more) but this averages 285bopd per well. How much oil vs gas, how much water, flow rate, quality of oil etc.

Either way the company is going to be in a very different position in a month. Hopefully that’s with Serenity coming through. No idea what value will be on success. Market won’t assign anything like it merits but could easily add and maintain 10 to 15p from here.

Lets hope it comes in.

Your memory has served you well Paul! That was four years ago now.

CRB14 - I’ve been in since Glenwick days. Liberator was a real joke. As you say, it was sold as an almost certainty and just needs proved up with the drill. The financial institutions that funded the drill demanded that for I3e to get a resource based lending facility big enough to fund the development campaign they needed to prove up a certain volume of oil (something like 100mln). To do that, they had to move the drilling location to the very edge of the field to prove up as much as possible. They had misread the 3D data and drilled on the wrong side of the fault line and hit a duster.

Ironically, the Serenity drill which was a tag on bonus, with no real hope, ended up hitting a good amount of oil. Had the whole PR been reversed and Serenity given promotion pre-drill then I3e could have came out with it deemed as a success. It’s definitely why the board are playing down this drill and why they wouldn’t drill 100% ownership even though could easily afford to. If it goes wrong they can say it’s insignificant cost and risk reduced 50%.

I’m glad the board have learned a lesson though and the Serenity drill isn’t planned to prove up the whole field, but is placed slap bang in the middle. So it shouldn’t be a duster but will hopefully be over 40ft thick column. Any less and the field size concept is questionable.

My view is that the current price has held up well. There was a huge rise in oil that created an inflated market for a while and there has only been a 15-20% drop or so from the top. Due to the upcoming Serenity drill, I think some retail will sell out (I was planning to sell down some but given oil outlook and progress in Canada, I'm happy to take a little hit if Serenity doesn't go to plan as plan to hold for a couple years). However, some will lower position and risk.

There may be a rise leading up to the drill for the other side of investors who want the risk exposure but this will only happen after spud. A bit in no mans land at the moment so no surprise for the drift!

Really hope Serenity comes in as it is that catalyst to step up to the next level (maintain +£400m mcap).

WHIreland note - “In our opinion, the appointment reflects the i) degree to which i3 Energy has established itself as one of Canada’s most successful high-growth energy companies and ii) i3 Energy’s promising forward looking growth potential. In our opinion, Mrs. Beal’s Non-Executive Chairpersonship has been unquestionably highly successful over the last few years and believe shareholders can be encouraged to see her continued involvement on the i3 Energy board. We recognise the tremendous advantages that Mr. Festival can bring through his wealth of contacts, proven technical acumen and deep experience and expect the company to accelerate its successful trajectory.”

A bit of a cabinet shuffle that probably won’t make too much difference, but good news nonetheless. Hoping proactive upload the presentation to watch with this mornings coffee.