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Better start drilling some oil wells then! Aeco back to old self around 2$

Given i3e exemplar running proficiency and paybacks in under 12 months (some as little as 6 months depending on poo), I do wonder whether the board could be less cautious with debt. The company is stagnating at this level and an oil heavy drilling campaign to add 5k bopd, narrowing gas / oil split, would surely be worth it. If i3e are determined to pay a dividend then they have to get sp back to 20p+ and increase divi to around 8-10% of that figure. Previously had it from overpriced oil and gas, now need to get back to that level through drilling.

Frustrating 2024 capex programme still not announced. These new shackles are clearly a nuisance to the companies freedom to operate.

Aeco gas prices ticking up nicely. What doesn't seem understood with i3e is the debt repayment. Every quarter, £5m is repaid therefore the enterprise value should go up by that amount. At current mcap that's 4% quarterly rise on debt repayment alone.

Aim works on news, sentiment and excitement. Unfortunately i3e offer none of these and is being punished. The years capital programme has been announced the week before Christmas for the last 3 years. No sign of it yet - is it also requiring approval from lender? The board need to get on top of this.

Google translated - didn't say too much new info. Just that they are evaluating the licence and have initial conversations with authority that they are open to permit outwith licence rounds. Idea of single well in serenity eastern area.

I3 and eog mull Tain licence

Speaking to an industry event this month,

Europa CEO Will Holland said the North Sea

Transition Authority (NSTA) indicated the pair

could make an out-of-round bid for the Moray

Firth oil find.

It comes as i3 Energy and Europa had been

seeking to join up their nearby Serenity

discovery with Tain via Repsol's Bleo Holm

FPSO.

However, those plans were seemingly dashed

when Repsol and its partners gave up on the

Tain project. They said in October the project was no longer attractive.

16p + will do it. Personally wouldn't sell under 20p. Oil and Gas will have strong 2024.

By far my worst investment. £15k cheerio! Fortunately can afford it as my investment money is always separate, but still a big hit for me.

Panamapete - I think this strategy worked well (buy low, drill high) when the company didn't have any assets. Now there is 400 odd drilling locations. While per barrel it may be (slightly?) cheaper to buy, surely there is much more added value by proving up the land i3e currently own. At the moment it would be difficult for a takeover as it isn't proven you can sink 20 wells in an area and get x netback. Prove that and the rest of the land is much more valuable and would surely reduce the disparity between i3e and Canadian peers. Not sure another 2 years of integrating spread out assets across Alberta would be that productive.

That's my belief anyway.

Yes, reducing the dividend by half and making it quarterly was a massive blow to investor returns and confidence. The monthly dividend was a great idea and one that unfortunately tied me in, when in hindsight was really a little perk. Couldn't of expected to see the sp down here, thought would hold 15-20p minimum.

Believe now that prudent management will not be enough to get mcap back up and will have to wait for directors to pull out a deal. The clearwater acreage apparently has 6-8 month netbacks - why not do a serious campaign there? Surely low risk use of debt and can prove the land can deliver.

Directors should have just returned 100% of FCF.

Must have made a decision to never say "is pleased to announce". Good nonetheless.

This is a highly unusual RNS. Never before seen one that expressed a % of PDP - assuming there is a good chance of the Canadian assets being sold off, hence this clause. To 'announce' a potential new partnership via an awards RNS is strange to say the least. It needs explanation from the board.

No news on capital reduction outcome then?

SP action today just highlights sentiment in i3e is so low. Management really need to start reacting to this.

This board is getting painful to read.

Agree with a lot of what has been posted today. The last year has been poor but the last 4 months have been awful. Removal of the monthly divi was a bad decision (forced or not).

It felt like something was being worked through, they maybe had another rabbit to pull out the hat.. but nothing. The lack of pr is very poor. Very little or no drilling, no jv's or partnerships, no sign of progress. Were i3e not going to "go after" Simonette and Clearwater? It's just tumbled along the last year. The only news is serenity might be back on with tain - do we even want that?

It's hard to get excited about i3e at the moment.

Nuttal engaged with me a bit on twitter. I3e just doesn't play into his total return model, especially with the divi cut. Be interesting to see i3e dividend vs fcf at end of 2023. Will it be 20-30%? I'm sure it's easy enough to work out. Nuttal targets 50-75% returned.

Repsol note 10mb with peak oil at 8000bopd via two horizontal wells tied into Blep Holm. Rockrose are less optimistic with 6000bopd peak. Add to that 3000bopd from Serenity and it could be interesting for i3e. Canada is good but if funding via debt is possible then this would be high impact.

I'm no technical analyst but the chart looks as if a push north could break a year long down trend? Anyone with more technical insight have an opinion or number for this to break?

Unfortunately (and sometimes fortunately) the sp on aim is sentiment and news driven. I3e have given a few bad news stories in a row, compounded by past problems with Liberator. It's whacked the sp and need to wait for sentiment to return. Every day oil is over 80, I get more comfortable with my holding. The sp will come eventually. The board NEED to start RNS positive news imo and can't rely on quarterly updates. There's too much information and it all gets lost. They should target quarterly updates on company as a whole and also one or two updates on each field per year. Good things are happening and no one knows.

Seeing all this M&A is very encouraging. I3e need to put a multiwell in Simonette and Clearwater. Prove its value and sell up. Selling is the end game here and no reason why can't go for 500m+.