Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Nuttal engaged with me a bit on twitter. I3e just doesn't play into his total return model, especially with the divi cut. Be interesting to see i3e dividend vs fcf at end of 2023. Will it be 20-30%? I'm sure it's easy enough to work out. Nuttal targets 50-75% returned.
Repsol note 10mb with peak oil at 8000bopd via two horizontal wells tied into Blep Holm. Rockrose are less optimistic with 6000bopd peak. Add to that 3000bopd from Serenity and it could be interesting for i3e. Canada is good but if funding via debt is possible then this would be high impact.
I'm no technical analyst but the chart looks as if a push north could break a year long down trend? Anyone with more technical insight have an opinion or number for this to break?
Unfortunately (and sometimes fortunately) the sp on aim is sentiment and news driven. I3e have given a few bad news stories in a row, compounded by past problems with Liberator. It's whacked the sp and need to wait for sentiment to return. Every day oil is over 80, I get more comfortable with my holding. The sp will come eventually. The board NEED to start RNS positive news imo and can't rely on quarterly updates. There's too much information and it all gets lost. They should target quarterly updates on company as a whole and also one or two updates on each field per year. Good things are happening and no one knows.
Seeing all this M&A is very encouraging. I3e need to put a multiwell in Simonette and Clearwater. Prove its value and sell up. Selling is the end game here and no reason why can't go for 500m+.
Is there anything stopping share buybacks? Is it linked to closing of premium account? At current prices it seems crazy to not buy as much as possible. £15m for 10% of shares.
Maybe not wise but bought 450k today. Which seem a bargain vs my initial purchase at 30p (same money but far more shares). Bought in smallish at 30p, again at 16p, then some at 5 and now more at 2p. Been about the worst investment i've made and head is telling me to cut losses, but it just feels that it has turned so have doubled down. Been here before many times, sometimes i've doubled down sometimes i've sat on the side.
Does anyone know if the investor meet was recorded and be available? Was in meetings all yesterday...
I'm very long term here and plan to hold. The dividend cut has been a real blow. If even they cut it 30%, but 50! Was quite happy banking some money and letting the sp do as it pleases but now thats much less appealing. Company is now solely dependent on oil and gas prices firming up. Personally, I'd rather drill the acreage than make an acquisition. We all know how they work by now. On paper it's growth but can take a year to show in the sp.
A solid interview which makes me see in hindsight most of us probably suffered from head under the sand syndrome. Cutting the divi is totally proportionate to global commodity market. "Too good to be true" the recent divi %, well yes. I've been knocked here before and this is hard to take. Majid looked a bit broken but understandably this was not the news he wanted to deliver and well done for doing an interview to address it rather than hiding.
Will I stay invested? Yes. But we are all now reliant on global markets rather than the previous investment of i3 outperforming peers. No one knows were WTI or AECO gas will be in 6 months.
All can hope is a bounce in commodity pricing.
Biggest disappointment is removing the monthly dividend.
Nothing like a casual 6% drop to start the week! Why did I ever get in this share....
Tony, thanks for sharing the article, very interesting read. It's the same argument Eric Nuttall makes for returning cash to shareholders. Last year i3e spent ~£70m on drilling, that is around 30% of current mcap. Wonder what the sp would be if that was spent on buybacks, certainly not seeing value now for it but hopefully that comes.
Noted Nuttall's post on twitter that WCS discount is now down to 11$. That makes Canadian oilers selling at the equivalent WTI price of $90 last summer. Maybe too nuanced for mainstream markets to pick up on.
Really solid, clear results. I3e management are performing exceptionally well when it comes to operating the business. Huge year on year growth and a great strategy for total shareholder returns.
Despite oil and gas prices, still very surprised the sp is at this level. Should be trading at 30p.
Feel the company is being lined up for a takeover.
Only issue I noted was zero mention of jv ambition to develop Simonette or Clearwater.
Stupid or not, this is the time to toss a coin. A name change and consolidation is usually a move before a transformation. What we don't know is if the transformation will be successful. Everything about copl tells me to sell and never look back but for whatever reason, I more than doubled my holdings today. If anything does come from this then today's price should prove rewarding.
Terrible idea to leverage more into Serenity. Let's get what i3e can out it (hopefully just sell it to tain operator).
Hopefully management will put forward a plan for the debt. A clearwater or Simonette oil drilling campaign would be great. Perhaps this is i3e's leverage prior to JV being signed? Been a quiet year and although divi is nice, we really need to see some fire under the bellys now. Not big enough to be a sitting divi stock yet.
Thanks for sharing. Majid putting i3e into a great position. If oil market is friendly, can see i3e being bought out next year. Will take my divi till then. 40-50p takeover IMHO.
Agree with the last post. Based on acquisition metrics and i3e's current mcap and drill costs. £50-100m for an acquisition would be far better spent drilling up oil weighted plays in Clearwater or Marten Hills. Both proving acreage quality and increased liquids. I do remember a similar clause being in Majids before making acquisitions so likely something on the cards. Gas prices are depressed so could be a few bargains in gas weighted plays.
Also, the options vesting on takeover is completely common.
The positive here is the shares being at 20p, so unless sp increases, he gets no value back.
Some great posts below over the weekend. When i3e transitioned over to Canada, it was sold at the time as a value opportunity due to the infrastructure issues which were to be alleviated by these pipelines. Great to finally hear that is potentially happening end of this year and will reduce the discount to crude. Secondly, its clear to see in the EV metrics that i3e need to get more liquids weighted. Hopefully a JV comes through, I hope for one to be announced now the board have drilled some wells with positive results. That could be the catalyst to close the gap on peers.
The board are doing a great job, fully trust them to deliver and hopefully gas prices tick up a bit to help.
Common for partners to build a steak up to 20-30% in the company before entering JV. They then get the inevitable uplift and have a level of control in the business. Would you enter JV with art without a decent holding of copl?
Jak Mir believing that a break of 21.5 can see i3e move up to the 30's from a technical stance. Not sure how much to believe the chart but it helps to have it working in favour. Oil bouncing is great but shame natural gas has no end in sight to falling. Know there has been efforts to target oil rich wells, now more so than ever that feels important. I3e's gas weighting is definitely a big factor as to why it trades below peers.