Member Info for nomadicinvestor

You wouldn’t believe the amount of shares I’ve been in that have hit the coveted £100m institutional investor threshold, for people to say they will start building x, y and z position, for it never to happen! It’s basically a myth, in practice II’s don’t get involved unless it’s through a placing or mcap is over £400-500m and no equity raise is in sight.

With the dividend and free cash flow, coupled with a £160m mcap, people will need to start taking i3e seriously. I still think there's a legacy issue as every man and his dog were in i3e over the liberator saga. That's starting to pass and no one can argue with the chart over the last 1 year. The potential gains for such a low risk, should make it an easy story to buy into. Will be interesting when volume ticks up on news throughout the year, I imagine most holders are here for the long term and that is a really powerful asset.

As expected, starting to pick up some momentum. SP hitting 14.5p. Can see it hitting the top of the channel at 20p over the next month or two. Oil and gas prices of today with i3e’s production should be sitting at 20p comfortably.

PANR (I’m not invested in) has 17 billion barrels of oil in place (10x COPL for now) with 2.2b estimated recoverable. If COPL had similar metrics, it would be a high case of 200m recoverable. Hopefully there is more in the ground and hopefully the recovery rate is better (closer to 20 or 30% rather than 13% PANR estimates). 200m recoverable is probably a realistic target and one that would transform the company. Once proven, it’s value in the ground would be $1b at a basic $5 a barrel (again fairly realistic if undeveloped field). It’s all about proving up what is there now and getting some of that oil to surface. Hopefully the company puts more meat on the bone and confirms a four well campaign kicking off in August.

Tony -

A leading government advisory body is to publish direction on new oil and gas licensing in the UK.

In a blog post Chris Stark, chief executive of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), revealed the guidance will be published in the next few weeks.

The advice will address the compatibility of the licensing process with the UK’s climate objectives.

It will kick off the organisation’s publications for the year.

A new briefing on “blue carbon in coastal and marine ecosystems” will also be released in 2022, setting out the environmental impact of “UK waters”.

Future oil and gas licensing rounds will inevitably face an unprecedented and increasing level of scrutiny.

Numerous calls have been made in recent months for North Sea production to be halted to mitigate the impact of climate change.

And the controversy around the Cambo field meant the oil and gas industry was at the centre of much political and societal debate last year.

The UK Government launched a consultation in December on the design of a climate checkpoint that new North Sea projects will have to meet.

It will be designed to make sure any new oil and gas permits handed out adhere to the UK’s climate change commitments.

The consultation will wrap up at the end of next month.

A checkpoint system was included as part of the North Sea Transition Deal, an agreement between industry and government rubber stamped last year.

Regulatory body the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) has committed to using its powers to ensure operators comply with the landmark pact.

Honestly don’t 100% understand pip and how they generate income, but I like the sector and I like the size of company. Bought in a few k worth last week and so far so good. Very unusual for me to not do full due diligence but just got a hunch with this one.

Any recommendations on an interview or presentation that’s worth watching/ reading.

Talk of a takeover is premature. Oil in the ground isn’t valued as it once was. Economics of copl look great - cheap to drill for bopb, low tax and close to infrastructure. It still needs developed. There are plenty of undeveloped assets around. I think this will be a slower burner than people think, but oil and gas is going to have a great few years and in that time I see copl at many multiples of today. It’s a long game, not a quick trade.

Not go it alone but in the most recent proactive investor presentation (october), Graham said that if the level of funding commitments aren't confirmed by the farm out counter-party then i3e are "willing to keep a larger piece and just get after the drilling of it next year". Previous to that they said they expect to conclude negotiations by year end.

I put two and two together but I guess for the board that doesn't always equal four.

Agree. The rhetoric during q4 was that if there is no funding commitments by the preferred farm-our partners (or counter-parties) by the end of the year, then i3e would move on to look at self-financing Serenity. Assume this will take some time, but if this is the direct then the market should be updated. This news has now been due for a year, can't help but think until it is resolved either way, the sp will be somewhat stuck. Unfortunately, there is little to no value in Serenity until it is drilled, especially after the Liberator episode.

It's a good time to buy with the news flow expected all the way through 2022. Annoyingly I was planning to top up 10 or 15% more pre-christmas and was holding for a dip below 10p, which I thought may happen at least intraday. Standing order wasn't filled and then the dividend announcement dropped and up to 13p it went.

Will be very few companies on aim with the same amount of news. Hopefully the board manages pr appropriately and does not just rely on quarterly updates.

He has 20k followers and does good interviews. I think Zak Mir is a good one to follow. I3e were number 6 on his list last year and were one of only a couple to end the year up. I went through the list from last year and quite interestingly most of the stocks had good H1s and poor H2s. Average loss was probably around 30%. Made me glad to be so heavily weighted into I3e (at times it’s only stock I hold in ISA). I can see I3e having another good year and his prediction of 30p is more than achievable.

Not sure how you don’t understand that selling oil at 15% more and gas at 20% more doesn’t translate to a higher NOI. Base costs remain roughly the same so these modest differences can have a big impact on the bottom line.

olderandwiser - not sure if you genuinely don't know, but this was clarified by Graham in the recent interview. The difference in NOI from the October rns to the December update is the change (slight fall) in the price of oil and gas. "Softened forward curve" is the phrase - essentially i3e are being conservative with their numbers. I like this approach as even the conservative case is extremely good, which means markets updates should always be positive. Under promise, over deliver will always win.

"For its planning case, i3 has relied upon the recently softened forward curve, with WTI at US$69.79/bbl and US$66.32/bbl, and AECO gas at US$2.63/GJ and US$2.50/GJ, for 2022 and 2023, respectively. Under these pricing assumptions which are in backwardation, i3's combined 2022 and 2023 NOI for its Blowdown and Capital Budget cases are forecast to be US$134MM and US$184MM, respectively."

Totally agree GGG. That's me signing off for christmas. Thanks to everyone that has contributed over the year, it's a great board with a lot of well informed investors. By the sound of it, i3e shareholders will have a lot more positives than negatives to chat about in 2022. Look forward to doing so. Slàinte Mhath.

Serica an interesting one for comparison. In july they were sat around £400m mcap with 20k boepd, mostly gas. This is the same as i3e but with under half the mcap at £140m. Serica drilled out their fields increasing production to 28k and is now valued over £650m. Canadian stocks really seem to be offering tremendous value just now and hopefully the gap will tighten in 2022. There is no reason why i3e, even compared to Canadian peers, could not be sitting at 20p comfortably right now.

While it is 17 wells gross, Graham says this leads to a net of 12.6 wells. So at 5200 boepd that's 412 boepd gross per well. No doubt still on the conservative side but if i3e can prove these production numbers over Clearwater and Simonette then it really opens up (more like confirms) those plays. Interesting Graham noted i3e could easily double production output with the unencumbered year end cash. Sounds like they are perhaps still hopeful of some North Sea activity so keeping cash in reserve, although are not wanting to say. Personally, I want them to focus on Canada. They've got the assets to have a £500m - £1b mcap company in my opinion , let;s get the most out of it and return as much as possible to shareholders while doing so.

Funny how the rise today of 1.05p or 10.2%, is the exact same as the sum given for the minimum dividend distribution next year. Coincidence?

They’ve probably been listened to Mr Nuttall re buybacks. It does make sense. Very good update from the board, they couldn’t of been more clear. Agree with others that it’s positive this is all from internal cash. Taking on debt would be fine for a targeted drill campaign in Clearwater or something.

Very interesting no mention of Serenity. Also very interesting the drilling activity is more around keeping production roughly in line with where they are now. With buybacks this is perhaps shifting more towards shareholder returns. I like how they’ve acknowledged i3e’s own portfolio now provides better metrics than acquisitions. They won’t acquire unless the deal is right and puts to bed some concerns that they were out to expand with little regard to short/ mid-term sp.

Buybacks, dividends, operational updates and 17 drills gives a lot of news flow next year.

Tony I said I give "balanced responses". I always post what I genuinely believe at the time. I didn't say anything about saying "the truth". I'm as uninformed as the next person and can only go off my understanding of the company (gathered over time from information in public domain).

Agree Bots. I'm a long term holder (in modestly from IPO having taken a small punt in Glenwick) with a substantial amount of my pf in i3e. I've been criticized on here in the past for being negative when just giving balanced responses.

This on going tit for tat by GGG and Tony is unreal. I don't know how they can both have the same argument every day on a bb for six months. Both are informed posters and both appear to be heavily invested, they need to just get over their little quarrel.