Member Info for nomadicinvestor

Apologies I've posted a few times this morning but I thought the pi's need to get together to present a list of agreed questions to the board. Is it worth starting a thread? Delivered as a single, considered list, it makes it harder to ignore certain aspects.

"The formal business of the AGM will not deal with any matters pertaining to the possible offer.... On conclusion of the formal business of the AGM, the Directors and advisers will conduct a question-and-answer session on any other matters that shareholders wish to raise." - to me this reads as they will answer questions on takeover, just not as part of formal AGM.

"The Bacanora Independent Directors view the Possible Offer to be an attractive proposal" this statement still sits badly with me. 67.5p when latest broker note by VSA has 120p price target. I have emailed Peter and Mark this morning, expect a standard response but good to keep pressure on. They need to be held to account.

Agree John. Although I think we all knew it deep down, reading that circular just confirmed our board are backing it and I suspect that will have approval of the ii's. I stand to make 27% profit, only due to averaging down since 2019. Peter Secker should be embarrassed at his management of BCN but he will be off into retirement now, Barbados no doubt.

continued .... "The pricing of this possible transaction is estimated on the basis of the non-binding quotation issued by Bacanora," - not sure what this entailed but sounds like they asked us how much and 67p was the response.

To rub salt into the wound - "In the event that a formal offer is made and the transaction completes, the transaction will have minimal impact on the Company’s financial position"

Ganfeng's circular relating to the takeover vote has been uploaded to their website today with some interesting notes.

"Shanghai Ganfeng and Bacanora jointly entered into an offer agreement, the main terms of which are as follows". "The subscription price for the possible offer was determined by both transaction parties after arm’s length negotiation with reference to the valuation of the Bacanora group and recent historical transactions."

BCN JOINTLY entered and negotiated this deal - the board gave the impression in their announcement and follow up emails that this was a notification of a possible offer, not the result of a "negotiated deal" that was "jointly agreed". Some answers required...

Note the vote details that Ganfeng can not offer more than £190m without another vote.

Tony - just copying my post from a few days ago but board gave their opinion of value (based on next years revenue stream minus any additional wells that are added). My target for next year is 14-23p, so agree 19p is high by year end - I’d be happy with 14p. Minus Serenity of course.

“My biggest take away was Graham stating Canadian oil producers are valued in the market between 4 and 7 times NOI. This acquisition would bring i3e up to $34m planned for next year. Therefore, on market metrics the mcap should be between $140 - 245m (£99 - 173m) or between 13.7p and 23.9p. This is without Serenity, which also sounds like a done deal”.

Johnpwh - Ganfeng could simply keep making offers and marginally increasing them. You are right in that it doesn’t make sense and I’m not well enough versed to say what the takeover code will demand. However I have been involved in takeovers that have had the first offer rejected and there was simply an increased offer two weeks later. It was recommended by the board and passed. Critically for us, any offer that is recommended by the board typically gets shareholder approval.

Where we are different is the board simply aren’t aligned to shareholders. The board should of knocked back any discussion (or noted it lacked value) at 67.5p. I think realistically if the offer is rejected then Ganfeng would only come back with at least 15-20% extra, as they know anything less is not worth the time. All rests on M&G.

If the bid is rejected by BCN shareholders, Ganfeng can increase it as soon as they like. It’s just a case of changing the number on the RNS. Happens a lot during hostile takeovers. Only issue for us is I don’t think this is hostile, our board are in cohort.

Our board are acting terribly. Allowing Ganfeng to request shareholder approval PRIOR to putting in a firm order is not the way it is usually done. They are allowing Ganfeng to strengthen their hand here at the expense of BCN shareholders. I'm really tempted to sell today but would just be cutting of my nose to spite my face.

Agree. They have got so much of this company for 25 and 45p that they can stretch a bit to test resolve. Wouldn’t be surprised for the offer to come in at 80p or so. Might be enough to sway the weak.

Will be extremely disappointed if our board allow Ganfeng an extension to the deadline. When these timescales are set in takeover code's, it annoys me that companies wait until the last day - the 30 days is somewhat arbitrary to the process. Are they hoping shareholders will just be relieved an offer comes in? Have they been in negotiations with ii's/ the board? Who knows but it is encouraging to read below that M&G are recognizing the cheap transactions for 'British' companies.

My biggest take away was Graham stating Canadian oil producers are valued in the market between 4 and 7 times NOI. This acquisition would bring i3e up to $34m planned for next year. Therefore, on market metrics the mcap should be between $140 - 245m (£99 - 173m) or between 13.7p and 23.9p. This is without Serenity, which also sounds like a done deal.

That’s Ganfeng got their 28.88% of shares. Let the games begin.

For me, anything under £1 and shareholders have been shafted. £1-1.50* is fair for this moment in time *given the circumstances of having the board totally outmaneuvered by Ganfeng (although I suspect Secker always knew this would happen and why he hasn't cared for publicity - he wanted BCN to stay under the radar as much as possible). Longer term I was expecting £4 around Stage 2 production.

Now these numbers aren't crazy or going to make everyone into millionaires, but the principle is it is hard to find a good company to have safe future growth. Shareholders have taken a massive amount of risk and now that it has paid off, we don't get any of the reward. I hope M&G side with the shareholders (from this board anyway) and reject the deal. There is a strong hand of opposition and we can get that figure well over the £1. Ganfeng have the money and won't lose control of a strategic world class asset for the matter of £100-200m.

I was in Codemasters when the Take Two bid of £725m, which people were going to vote through, was trumped by EA for £945m. That was a big increase but it mattered strategically to EA to dominate racing games. What's this worth to Ganfeng? Much much more.

Yes well done. Bit of a shame the article focused so heavily on the resource not falling in to Chinese hands, rather than the derisory and morally questionable offer.

It’s good to put pressure on the board (and Ganfeng to a lesser extent).

Could someone copy the article? It’s behind a pay wall.

Dee - have you counted up how many shares they all own collectively? Be very interesting. I suspect it will be less than 1% of the company? Most larger pi won’t post on boards like this.

It's amazing you can lose £12m in mcap with only a few hundred k of trading, while also providing the market with positive RNS's.

Thank you maqsood - so the 40% drop isn't a fair / real reflection on events as the IPO placing was valued at £48m? Was about to jump in for a trade but might wait until know more about the company.

What's the market cap here at 4.4p? I see the placing valued the company at £48m - is it now 43% less? Seems a big discount...