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Thanks for the reply.
That's of secondary concern and as you state, difficult to nail down. Sitting on the extra heavy oil story for 3 months is a different kettle of fish all together.

It's my belief that price sensitive information of a material nature has been withheld from the market and that includes us the pi's. It should be in everyone's interest that it doesn't happen again, either here or elsewhere in the AIM casino.
I wasn't too impressed by the pre news sell off either.
My overriding concern is would it do more good or harm to us the smaller investors ?

is the lesson I believe we have learned from this particularly unpalatable episode.
I've contacted thwe AIM regulator this morning and they are prepared to look at the nes flow post the 12th August discovery and they would welcome any links to interviews.
I'd be interested what genuine investors feel about opening this particular can of worms. Would it work in our interests going forward or against them, especially as we should all now know what we are dealing with.
I'm interested in views.

Scroll down about two thirds for a table of the Venuzalean extra heavy oils:
https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/Venezuela/background.htm

I obviously can only give you my perspective on events but the expectation that the oil discovered (Jethro in August) was similar in properties to the Exxon discoveries next door. There was no indication otherwise and indeed Stabroek was mentioned at every opportunity. The fact that JOE hasn't been mentioned in any of the presentations that I've seen is a further concern and if Jethro, at least, proves to be commercial, it will be more costly to extract due to it's composition. The fact that they are not telling us in detail what it is, after three months, in terms of API and sulphur content, further muddies the waters. In short today's news does nothing for their credibility.

"If people want to be a bit more proactive rather thsn reactive in this affair may I suggest as many as possible contact Malcy and Proactive for them to ask the pertinent questions of ECO/TLW, particularly if they have interviews lined up.
Why wasn't the news released when the samples were taken, they must have had a rough idea of what they had extracted and along the same lines why hasn't the API and sulphur content been released in the rns. Do they know what the oil characterisics of the Hammerhead discovery are and what is the expected read across from Cretaceous discoveries in the Stabroek for the Cretaceous plays in our block."
Seems a good idea as it's well past time that these CEO's were put on the spot in these interviews, rather than just using them as a PR exercise. Gil Holman is in danger of joining Paul Welch and Paul Atherton in the hall of infamy, along with many others.

Just a quick remark on that report. I don't see the Stabroek block as being materially closer to shore than the Orinduik block but am pleased to be corrected.

updated Stifel

2020.

Key Points

Today’s news that the Joe and Jethro discoveries contain high-sulphur heavy crude is unexpected in that the Exxon-operated Stabroek block immediately outboard is said to contain “high quality” crude, typically shorthand for low sulphur + light/medium gravity. At this early stage of exploration it is difficult to know the precise significance of the observation. We see two possibilities:

It could be that the Tertiary reservoirs (i.e. Joe/Jethro) contain oils sourced from a different interval to the (principally Cretaceous) discoveries outboard. The implication would then be that the Cretaceous play at Orinduik would produce the same light sweet grades as are found in Stabroek.

The second possibility is for a geological discontinuity or gradation between near-shore to far-shore environments: high-sulphur oils are generated from carbonate rather than sand/shale source rocks, the former only being found in locations close to land where carbonate rocks can form. It is possible that these influences dominate in the Orinduik block and far-shore, marine source rocks (that typically generate sweet crudes) are prevalent in locations further away from shore such as Stabroek. We would regard this as the more unattractive outcome as this would increase the risk that the Cretaceous reservoirs in the Orinduik block also contain heavier crude.

We also note that heavy oil, especially in productive reservoirs such as have been seen in these discoveries, is commercial - Grane in Norway, Mariner in UK North Sea, Mars in Gulf of Mexico and Peregrino in Brazil are four examples. We estimate that a development scenario based on a $10/bbl discount to Brent and 25% higher capex than our current estimates still gives a 20% IRR and a PV/I (a measure of value-added) in excess of 2x.

This increases the significance of the Cretaceous play in the Orinduik block in our view, which will likely see exploration drilling next year. This also raises the importance of the read-through from the Carapa well (targeting the Cretaceous) currently being drilled in the Kanuku block to the south by Repsol and Tullow.

I don't read that comment as meaning the progamme is now in doubt:

"While the results from the Jethro and Joe wells continue to be evaluated for various development and production scenarios, the petroleum system models are being updated, and we are in the planning stages of a 2020 drilling campaign in pursuit of additional discoveries. Our drilling next year will be determined by the JV partners in the coming months.

"We are sufficiently capitalized for our likely 2020 drilling programme and continue to progress our work programmes offshore Namibia, where we have seen increasing inbound interest and upcoming drilling activity in the region. We are well positioned with our strategic goals and to continue creating value for our shareholders."
My interpretation is that it's what's it's likely to be rather than your negative connotation.

maverick
I believe the Liza Cretaceous field is 32 API which is a light medium oil and in no way can be described as heavy. Of more interest in a read across would be the API and characteristics of the Hammerhead discoveries, which were also Lower Tertiary aged. There should still be everything to play for when we eventually get to drill our Cretaceous prospect (s) in 2020.
This is clearly a set back for the results so far but by no means a catastrophe. However, I share the disappointment and anger of others at the bullish statements of principally GH, who must have known that all wasn't as rosy as he has made out.
He now carries a big wealth warning and underlines the need to read the rns's and ignore the hot air.
A special word for Prosolenes. The time to flag the lack of a published API for the two discoveries was at the time and not after the event !

Good morning extrader
GH certainly talks about the Exxon/Hess Mako in the same breath as our Mako at around 2 min 10 secs:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/z7h1kpjugupjtx7/VSA-Capital_Africa-Oil-Week_Gil-Holzman-Eco-Atlantic.mp4?dl=0
Perhaps more pertinent is the commitment to three wells next year :)
To further muddy the waters, as I said yesterday, Tullow/Eco have Mako as a Tertiary play as shown on P4 on this link and it's estimated to contain 250 mmbo on P5 :
https://www.ecooilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/HP-ECO_8_20191104_Resource_estimates_upgrades.pdf
However, on the standard cross section map that the partners release, it is shown as an Upper Cretaceous play on P5 :
https://www.ecooilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/EOG_Corporate-Presentation_September-2019_for-web-1.pdf
I'm sure all will be revealed tomorrow :)

I know the feeling. We're far from the madding crowd in the S of France :)

hereandnow
Yup, I've only had a brief look at it but the Exxon/Hess Mako exploration well is only 6 miles south of Liza and sandwiched between Liza and Snoek, which were both Cretaceous plays. Our Mako is some way to the west and a Tertiary play, so on the face of it, unconnected.
extrader
Where's the olive picking taking place ?

On the contrary 40 millon barrels is completely in line with the GH statement in his recent proactive interview, as detailed in my post at 15.28 yesterday. The only possible variable is that the amount that I've allocated to Hammerhead, of 16 million barrels, may be too high. It may also be too low and that's the whole point. None of us know and that's the fact that I'm putting across. The only real value that we have is that indicated by what the market thinks it's worth, currently circa $350 million. GH said in the interview he believes it's worth more. Parhaps you could explain given the comments of GH, how you arrive at this comment, giving sources and figures: " 40m is actually lower than the lowest estimate giving a 40 cent discount."
I've told you where mine comes from, the horses mouth, with an adjustment for Hammerhead.

Quite and the reason for my post (s) on value is that it is so difficult to value a share such as ECO with the size of the potential prize. There are just so many imponderables.
That said, if we attribute 40 miilion barrels of discovered resources to Jethro and Joe and accept that the current share price has risen circa 80p since the jethro discovery, then the market is valuing that 40 million barrels at $4.60, which sits nicely with your $5 a barrel. There are all sorts of ways of looking at it :)

ijwt
Your inference appears to be that the Neptune/Energean deal justifies the $8 a barrel valuation circulating in some quarters for discovered resources in off shore Guyana ?
This is a more detailed description of the deal and should be read in conjunction with the comments by Tullow's George Cazenove, posted by WilkCoutts below.
https://www.neptuneenergy.com/en/news/4172/
Are you not comparing apples and pears ?

Nice to see that someone has got their feet on the ground hereandnow :
In the Proactive interview on 19th September, GH told us that the new CPR would be ready in 1-2 months time and he told us exactly how much oil he believes us to have in Jethro, Joe and the Hammerhead overlap - 56 million barrels. He qualified this by saying that we had $450 million of oil (our share) at $8 a barrel, which is the offshore namibia rate for discovered oil. Namibia was clearly a slip of the tongue (I think) . He also spoke about 3-4 wells next year and they would start to re appraise the seismic, against the discovery well's data, from end October to mid November. I would imagine the Carapa result will have a bearing on that. He spoke of Jimmy as a possible UT target and the Jethro Channel as a LT target.

I suspect that's the large sell they have been working that has depressed the share price.

James
The tables starting on P89 onwards have all the relevant info. I'd hazard a guess that JOE has come in at around 50-100 mmbo, which as a play opener is not to be sniffed at. We mustn't lose sight of the fact that the Upper Tertiary is very much the junior partner in the Orinduik block, at present. The discovery is really good news for all the Tertiary aged up dip prospects and those that have taken out profits might get a nasty surprise if they suddenly released the Jethro updates. We will of course probably have a pleasant surprise :)
https://www.ecooilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/AIM2019CP-ECO-Orinduik-reporMar2019Final-.pdf

gotti
They are proving up the Tertiary plays first and that's two out of two, Upper and Lower.
Most of the Exxon discoveries are Cretaceous and we are fortunate that our partner and operator Tullow are partnering Repsol on the forthcoming Carapa drill in the adjacent Kanuku block. Carapa is very close to Orinduik and as Tullow will have access to the data it goes a long way to prove up the Cretaceous in our block and will certainly help in the planning of our first Cretaceous exploration well, I'd imagine, early next year.