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It strikes me, as we find ourselves, at the most, a few days from the spud at JOE, that there are any number of permutations that will play out in the future, be they short, medium or long term.
Every possible scenario points to a positive outcome for ECO and its shareholders. It's a wonderful situation that we find ourselves in :)

AHP
What's the basis of the £10 million plus development costs to ECO, are there some figures kicking about that I haven't seen ?
extrader
I wouldn't read too much into that. On page 5 they say this : " Exxon Hammerhead appraisal demonstrates extension into Orinduik." and on page 3 this : "• Appraisal of Exxon’s Hammerhead discovery indicates extension into Orinduik."
Take your pick but with all that must be going on there at present, I doubt that there was much senior management input into that particular presentation. However, the next one with the volumetric updates is an entirely different matter :)

Yes, I see what you mean now with the statement on P8 saying that the resource estimate of 3.98 billion barrels of gross prospective oil equivalent resources does not include the Lower Tertiary and yet the map on page 10 shows virtually nothing but prospects in the lower Tertiary. Some kind of error perhaps but I will see if the CPR makes the same statement anywhere. They do seem to lump everything into the Tetiary in the CPR but this may be qualified somewhere in the report.
In that Proactive interview Gil said "we see 2 billion barrels on the Tertiary alone going forward, with 2 billion barrels on the Cretaceous." Not withstanding all that my focus has always been on the Lower Tertiary for Jethro and this is what Gil said in the spud rns :
""Today Eco Atlantic's first Guyana well has been spud, three years ahead of our Petroleum Agreement commitment. This is the start of a hugely exciting time for the Company. Jethro Lobe will test the Lower Tertiary aged turbidites, as well drilling down into the Cretaceous. As such, we await the well results with great anticipation, as they will give us an even greater understanding of the geological plays."
Just to close, some of us were surprised by the late decision to test the Cretaceous on the Jethro drill, when to all intents and purposes there was not an identified target to aim for. Perhaps they just wanted to gather some data in this interval to help with their understanding of Rappu.

I see this was posted this morning so it probably is a good idea to put it up again:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/900617/big-oil-discovery-offshore-guyana-is-just-the-beginning-for-eco-atlantic-says-ceo-holzman-900617.html

Hallmark
I haven't re checked it yet but my recollection is that the CPR did not differentiate between upper and lower Tertiary intervals but certainly in the latest presentation and the one released by Tullow yesterday it shows a prospect map where Jethro has turned from amber to green (discovery) and it sits in the Lower Tertiary interval, which is analogous with Hammerhead.
Joe is an upper Tertiary play but this also is analogous with Hammerhead and may be where the confusion has arisen. Have you heard the Gil interview today, if not I can post it if you let me know.

Joe is a Tertiary prospect and analogous with Hammerhead as was Jethro.
The mention of late September for the JOE result in todays Tullow broadcast, sugggests that they may perhaps drill it. We can see from the drill costs between Jethro and Joe (not ignoring the different depths) how much cheaper these drills are when you factor out mobilising and demobilising costs. So if they have the data to support it and they can reach the sweet spot (assuming that it's not directly below the JOE bore hole, then I'd be surprised if they don't go for it. Perhaps the Jethro venture into the Cretaceous was to give them a bit of info for Rappu. re the sweet spot, I'm not sure what the deviation (sidetrack) capabilities are of the drill ship, ie how far can it deviate from the Joe well bore.

As was stated earlier in the day, perhaps of more interest is how the prospects have changed on that second slide.

There are some interesting alterations to the prospects and leads as shown on slide 26 of this presentation in late July:
https://www.tullowoil.com/Media/docs/default-source/3_investors/tullow-oil-plc_2019-half-year-results-presentation-final.pdf?sfvrsn=4
and this one posted by Tullow today, as shown on slide 4 :
https://www.tullowoil.com/Media/docs/default-source/3_investors/tullow-oil-plc_jethro-1-well-result-presentation.pdf?sfvrsn=0

Rather depends on what time they get up in the morning :)

This is what the CPR said about the Rappu :
"The Rappu Lead is an Upper Cretaceous age that lies underneath the Joe Prospect. This target is a
broad and potentially thick target (Figure 3-26) the extent of which is shown on the seismic lines
in Figure 3-27. This lead is considered a high risk target at this point therefore the current plan is
to drill only the shallower Joe prospect and utilize the information from the Jethro well to reduce
the risk of this deeper target."
Net prospective resources to ECO are:
Low estimate : 37 mmbo
best estimate : 80 mmbo
high estimate : 150 mmbo
That's of course in addition to anything that JOE yields, with a 150mmbo best estimate to the partnership, 22 mmbo net to ECO.

Well done and thanks for your input on the board. I sense you were not only up to the armpits but over the shoulders on this one :
The end of September result deadline for Joe, which should spud in a few days time and is quite shallow (21 days I believe) does suggest that they might have a dig at Rappu as well. Presumably they would have two well designs to allow for this eventuality in the success case at Jethro. I believe it's called forward planning :)

its you
I'm not teaching anyone to suck eggs but this is a big derisk of the rest of the basin, hence this would be a good place for some of those funds.
widows
likewise, make your own decision but this is as good an oil play as there is and massively derisked.
good luck to both of you

Be very careful. These high risk, high reward oil exploration shares are not for widows and orphans :)
Good luck !

rhertig
They call it creative journalism. The catch is the headline around the word completes.

AHP007
You post as you like but I'd certainly prefer it if you omitted the disclaimer. Most of us are grown ups on this board.
Diversified
How do we all know the strategy is to sidetrack in the case of success. All I've garnered is that we move onto Joe.

dick
What I forgot to add is that I don't know if Equinor would have to sanction a further farm out/down by JOG if they took up their 50% option.

dick
I would imagine that if Equinor take up the option and bearing in mind their involvement in P2170, it would be a major surprise if they didn't , then I suppose JOG could farm out part of their 50% share for a cash consideration. CIECO as you suggest would be an obvious partner but I don't think they would want to cough up too much in view of the currently suggested deal open to Equinor. One has the suspicion that lots of gentlemen's agreements have been arranged behind the scenes, that have yet to see the light of day. None of us lot know, who if anyone, was also after those blocks but I'm sure there are other interested potential partners out there, in the unlikely, in my view, case that Equinor pass.
poortiming
The involvement of any major and because of their current partnership with JOG, particularly Equinor, would give the project more credibility. It acts a a kind of insurance policy when a major in effect underwrites a project. However, we mustn't lose sight of the fact that the OGA have approved JOGS application, as it stands and a FDP is being prepared as we type.
paola
The only problem with a sell and re buy strategy is that news can come at any time. The 3 months option is a maximum, not a minimum. But good luck with whatever strategy you choose. I'm looking to buy some more in the near term, so the present price action doesn't really bother me. However, I would prefer it to stay at these levels until I've bought :)

One word would be very difficult but I suppose "disbelief" would fit.
I believe there are many who do think that it's too good to be true. Other factors are finance, despite the OGA being satisfied by this element of JOG's submission. The timescale will put others off. People will question if the oil is really recoverable, particularly given that Repsol/Sinopec did not develop it - albeit we believe we know the reasons why.
Nothing is without risk when investing in O&G companies. It's a question of weighing up the perceived pluses and minuses and acting accordingly. I, like many others am prepared to put my faith in the BOD, who clearly believe it's a great deal. If it proves to be so, then it's those that kept the faith, who will be the big winners. By the same token.................................

it certainly puts this into context:
"JOG is also pleased to announce that Equinor and JOG have agreed and entered into a three month option agreement under which Equinor has been granted an option over a 50% equity interest in respect of Blocks 20/5d and 21/1a (the "Buchan Blocks"), which contain the Buchan oil field and J2 oil discovery. Should the option be exercised, JOG shall act as Licence Operator in respect of the Buchan Blocks and Equinor will reimburse JOG for its 50% share of costs in relation to the licence applications."
One would hope that there's more than meets the eye :)
I suppose there's always the possibility (depite the friendly noises) that Equinor are playing hard ball (they have shareholders as well) and JOG may be approaching other potential partners. There's no mention of an exclusive three month option. That throws up the interesting possibilty of having Equinor as operator/partner on P2170 and someone else on the other two blocks.

Monday is day 32 of a 35-40 day drill with two target zones, one deeper than the other.
That always makes what is in effect a 60+ hour news blackout very interesting :)