Member Info for Nitbhav06

DNP, we were providing context around why Asos could tank further. PE of c.20 is over priced. NAV excluding intangibles is at c. 200m. Market cap is at £1.8bn. Almost 10x NAV at current levels. All good though, it's heading to £40 a share. I am not deramping, just providing an opinion as to why I think it's overvalued. Good luck all.

HH - I'm helping people on this board by bringing some perspective. Just because the sp has dropped by 50% it doesn't mean you pile in without any thought. PE ratio is at c. 20x earning. There's no chance Asos can sustain that level of growth given the margins they're working with. I honestly think it will go to 15 then to 10, where it will stabilise. People on these boards only consider upside risk, which I see very little. Downside risk is very important. I wish everyone good luck, be very careful. I personally wouldn't be touching this unless it was 10-13p.

Bandit, you're acting like Wolverine. The fundamentals are clear:
P/E ratio - overvalued
NAV - overvalued

If you disregard the intangibles Asos have net assets of c.200m. Good luck with £45. You'll be lucky. More chance winning the lottery.

I love how people are quoting they are value investors for a stock which offers very little "value". Strong sell.

Khalil you're right. Under current liabilities in the balance sheet the £500m is money that they have in the bank, they don't owe money it's a made up number. How stupid of me. How could I get it so wrong. Absolutely delusional some people on this board.

HH, now now, there's no need for that. I'm just bringing a balanced perspective. The facts are Asos is in serious sh*t and the balance sheet doesn't lie. Brexit hasn't been factored in so I could see this at around £15 a share. It is stupidly overvalued at the moment.

Even more carnage today. Be careful out there. Some people seem to like companies with 2% profit margins! This is still far too expensive. I think asos should change their symbol to SOS. Run by plonkers who can't control costs. For those topping up, have you studied the balance sheet? Cash burning and liabilities keep going up. Competition is intensifying and no doubt margins will be challenged even more in the coming years.

Yep, I think you're right. I hope next year we smash through our revenue numbers. If we get to €5m I'll be over the moon. More processed marble will do us a world off good. Does anyone know by how much our production rates will increase next year?

It may be the future of fashion, I'm not disputing that. I'm looking at the margins and they are thin. £2.4bn in revenue and pbt of £102m is a 4% conversion rate to profit. Balance sheet wise, c.£40m in cash and current liabilities of £500m+ and this keeps rising every year. Better off Asos keeping money in a long term bond at a coupon rate of 3%? Silly logic with some of these posts. I'd but if market cap was around £400m in line with net assets. I'd buy quiz over asos anyday. Bullet proof balance sheet and much better value dyor.

How can a company survive on such slim margins. They need a transformation project so they can cut back on costs. It's terrible that a company with no high street stores is converting margins at Ebit level of 2%. It's unacceptable! Fire the CFO and FD.

The key activity for next year must be to invest in the Prilep quarry. We can charge the following for the white marble:
-€350+ per tonne unprocessed
-€90-140 per m2 processed
-€1780 per m2/tonne processed

Let's say we sell 5000 tonnes processed, that gives us revenues of c. 8.59m alone. If we do 12500 m2 of processed, that's around €1.25m. The pPrilep quarry alone could take us to €6-8m next year.

Oh and don't forget the article Esh posted a few weeks back. Demand is expected to increase (white marble) at a rate of 10-15% over the next 3-5 years so we can increase prices due to scarcity of supply.

Strong buy imo at these prices. Just one thing to be mindful of and that is that there could be another placing next year if we need more equipment for our quarries. I can see a placing of between €2-4m next year. Long term super bullish.

John on directors talk, there is an excellent present by Chris around March 18. Strongly recommend watching it. Also Esh posted a link to white marble demand a few weeks back and that's worth a read. You've got to have a long term view with fox as stone alliance (which is 4-5 years away) is what will take it to another level. Fox is in the best shape it's ever been. Factory up and running, quarries have 3-5 benches and we are selling made to order which has margins of 80-90%. Good luck with research.

BTF it's too hard to call the bottom. Best thing to do is cost average in or hold. The market cap doesn't support fundamentals of the company.

Thanks Esh, I saw the potential demand for marble with my own eyes, when I was in Abu Dhabi and Dubai a few weeks back. This is just the beginning. Imagine when we develop links in Saudi, Abu Dhabi, Qatar etc. The reason why demand will be so high is because the climate is extremely hot so wooden flooring and carpet is not an option. Additionally, these guys have deep pockets and are building like there's no tomorrow. Strong buy now. I think we will be doing €5-7m a year in these territories alone in the next few years. Great news.

I am really hoping we have good results for 2018. Everything suggests we will easily hit over €2.2m for the year however, as Phili mentioned, we need to see by how much they have ramped up production and what the mix is between processed and unprocessed. I would be delighted if we had a ratio of 65-70% processed and the remainder unprocessed blocks in 2020. That will seriously drive our top line as we can charge between €500-1500m2/tonne. The market will expect to see serious progress in 2018, else I think there is a chance we will go below 6p. Good luck all, we deserve some good news. Few more weeks to go!

Truro, sometimes no news is good news however, Chris mentioned earlier on in the year that Fox would be announcing new customers and orders towards the back end of the year and we've had nothing. This suggests it's because the orders are minor or we don't have such orders. I genuinely have no idea where we'll end up at the end of the year. Long term hold as next year should be where we see sp rocket.

Farhan some good points you raise. I read in the interim results that focus will now be on improving margins and I'm confident in the next few years we will see good returns. The fact that website sales are increasing as well as our international exposure suggests that there will be less reliance on the outlets. The growth over the next 5 years could be exponential the rate revenues are growing. I'm super bullish on Quiz and a pe of 6ish is ridiculous.

Ronin, the current valuation is a steal. I got a few more today at these levels I think it's dirt cheap. Almost at NAV level and the company is growing top line ar a good rate. What I do like is the increase in sales from the website and international markets. This is going to be a global business one day so it will definitely be worth a lot more than current market cap.

It looks decent for the next 10 days. It's very cold though -3-5c. Just need to keep extracting the marble from the quarries and stockpile like there's no tomorrow. Still think full year results will be cr*p. €2.1-2.2m. There's been no announcement regarding new customers. UAE are building like there's no tomorrow. We should be penetrating this market but no news on this front. If we now have 30+ customers why are we not announcing it? I'm becoming frustrated now. Give us something Fox.

I agree, the reputational risk now will damage this company. Absolutely shocking behaviour and I'm not suprised regarding shops having no customers. I wouldn't step foot in one of these stores. Further, even if Senior Management go, the damage has been done. It will take years to gain back credibility from customers. Sometimes I wonder how these plonkers are running these large companies.

The good thing is that we've pretty much got all the equipment we wanted this year. Tiling line, rensin, cnc, polishing machine and so forth. Our yields should also be superb going forward, leading to reduced write off for inventories. Just a matter of keeping head down and working through orders and winnning new clients. This is a very competitive market but we have a significant advantage due to low labour costs and good quality marble at our quarries. I wonder what Chris has plans for the Malishev and Prilep quarries as we need to get much more quantity out next year. I can't help but think another placing is on it's way in the next 3-6 months. We are still €4-5m short on Capex as more money is required for both these quarries.