Member Info for NicetoMichu

If save.l does a raise at sub 20p for additional asset purchases i'd be extremely annoyed.... I don't care how compelling the purchase opportunity is .. as it would simply be mates rates to II's who don't want to buy this in the open market as they know this s/p would rise strongly and quickly if they tried to buy even a million or three's quid worth in the open market.

PS: The core of the problem in AIM O&G imho is II's refusing to participate in buying meaningfully in the open market and instead buying meaningfully at discounted placing prices only, as a rule.. it's creating major liquidity issues and facilitating a race to the bottom. How can the sector ever come back 'in favour' if II's do not buy meaningfully in the open market but sell meaningfully in it ?

i do not have any contacts o the board here D Richi. No need to mention this to management as it's obvious and Trafigura are smart, I feel.. Indeed that smart that they could have any of a multitude of agendas here.. and, whatever, they're seeing this as a medium to long term play anyway I expect and so don't really care about the s/p being this low currently .. indeed I could even come up with a theory or two that could have it in their interests for this being low... and in that same imaginative context it's not impossible that it's them that's keeping it low on the quiet recently .... granted I do have a vivid imagination.. but, from experience, can assure you anything is possible in this game..

altogether this is a compelling squared buy at these latest levels imho.. and I've started topping up and am open to continuing doing so up to 35p .. under 35p here is a nonsense and, even with a generally bearish cap on, I could still easily make a case here now for 50p plus.. all imho

in fairness...

not surprised it didn't go big up but somewhat surprised it's actually down as I type.. short termers losing interest I guess..

this share continues to be some dog for one dog.. but the fundamentals are improving as we go and eventually that will help, I expect (aka hope)

Again the easy answer here is for Trafigura to buy say up to a half a millions worth in the open market and put a rocket under this s/p .. the least they could do after alienating many in pushing Levine for the recent - latest - placement that - further - alienated many.. and a pretty small addition given the plenty of millions they have in here already.. and absolutely in their interest to do too.. imho

Maybe Flybyboy's charts are - in effect - telling him that the production permit is coming soon for Po Valley?

That is what we want ( the s/p will tick up meaningfully if that happens )

'New' Institutional Investor level buying in the open market longshorttrade

welcome flybyboy.. if they eventually deliver what they say they will then huge upside here imho....alas they have been slow to deliver in a timely fashion so far .. as in snail slow.. but hopefully that's about to change soon... we need the final Italian regulatory approval asap.. and then hopefully the beginning of a new chapter here..

That post got me thinking that there should also be an AIM limit on how many - of the one and only - Mr Colin Bird companies Private Investors are allowed 'invest' - aka bet - in at any one time UKInvestor2.0 !

(I'd propose no more than two and perhaps one for that limit)

This one always seems to come back to Erics Sprotts in the end

What would that prediction have been before the Thomas Partey news broke arsenal786 ?

hopefully so dodgepot..

still a good chance of this company finding a good way sometime, I feel .. but raises at very lowly s/p levels are killers.. 25% or more new shares in circulation each time for a small raise here and there massively undermines for future valuation potential IF they eventually find a good way

( and they were doing some serious cost cutting recently here too.. and ok(ish) revenues alongside, saw my hopes go up here... so that raise shocked me at least somewhat.. you might say they had to get a buffer to be sure in these uncertain times, but I'm losing interest here off the back of it especially in truth.. range trading stock potential still here though - and FK a top man in that context, and others imho - but that's not going to help long term buy and holders much.. )

Not me today gov... but I did dump a third of my holding here on Friday, so do feel a little guilty of aiding and abetting.... it was only a grand odd so that should have been pretty incidental .. I genuinely hope for the long suffering this won't go further down from here.. (i'm unlikely to bet even semi seriously here around this time whatever, in truth ...but towards helping out a bit in any serious mess, .75p would see me to add some back and .65p a chunk more again.. etc.. )

waking up at last, seemingly.. and not surprising with farm out announcement - hopefully - likely within a few weeks now..
been sitting on a few grand bet here for a long time and have never lost the faith..
hopefully 2p ahead of announcement and then well on again from there on even semi decent terms announced....

With strong performance now clearly visible here, and the s/p still extremely low on a fundamentals basis, this is the best opportunity yet for save.l management and their Investor Relations / Public Relations etc to get some OPEN MARKET meaningful institutional buying going on here now imho... (road show presentations, on one ones meets/calls with top fund managers etc.)

There may well be some Institutional buying going on already but there's - very - likely still some broadly equivalent Institutional selling too imho.. and it's more than one II selling down/out still i'd guess - aside: green credential reasons or whatever isn't the point, the point is they're selling in the open market - and while it would be very nice to slow that exiting too, the key here is to get decent size 'new' II buying in the open market.. (and it has to be in the open market too...while II's may well be interested/more interested in the idea of raising funds via a 'nice' off market placing for eg to expand the business by acquisition around this time, that would very likely now be a sub optimal idea towards short term s/p appreciation at least imho..)

Even a few million new II money in here, in the open market, could do wonders for this s/p imho.. and a few million new II money in here, via the open market, shouldn't be a big ask now !!

I'm trying to get that bl++dy muppet song out of my head and you go quoting it again Noel !!!

So since you've started it again, I feel compelled to offer the following regarding this Bulletin Board:

Why do we always come here
I guess we'll never know
It's like a kind of torture
to have to watch this show

and hazdogg called it pretty well over last few days, in fairness..

a bit but not a lot surprising to me ..

PoO - and G to an extent - under pressure not helping.. but, often, short term movements are one thing, and medium term movements another..

We really need some meaningful 'new' institutional buying in the open market here .. a few million quid bought here over a few weeks could easily give Agadem the kind of rises he dreams about imho.. it can of course happen, but it can of course not happen either, alas.. hugely out of favour AIM sector still generally is a clear problem .. imho

Much appreciated on your feedback here CE, not least yesterdays call with Mr CB

I took some good and some bad from that call update and, altogether, was tempted to sell down a third of my current bet here in the hope of buying it back lower in due course ..but went for 15 % sell down only in the end, as the s/p has fallen a lot already recently and there's good in that update too. ( and the raise and the lending set up for if needs be I get/ respect )

'The bad ' is alarm bells ringing in my head around the following:

''Colin suggested he get a full progress update from MMP and then publish it in its entirety and un-edited by the end of next week. I agreed it was a good idea. (Although I wouldn't be surprised if it appears the week after next).''

I was expecting he gets ongoing regular progress reports from MMP - site preparation is a subject for ongoing discussion for eg, even while the plant is in many week storage/hold by the border, but especially around this time of border opening he should be being briefed on this too I'd offer - and could have summarized the - at least near - current state of play on that call with you ? eg What is his latest best guess on the plant crossing the border and broadly what's left to do on site preparation etc.

My - cynical perhaps, but he has much form - guess with this full report idea is that timeframes for 'ard rock are slipping further again one way or other, and CB has at least deduced that already but 'awaits official' confirmation.. hence this written report idea directly from MMP ?

(Very happy to be wrong on this and I'm much more in this for range trading than long-term hold and all this is perhaps opening up more range trading opportunities again as we go etc. )

Much appreciated Porschefund. Top Man ! And that impresses me a lot this time round too.

It's in effectively nobodies interest for the Nigerian Government to go technically bankrupt HS and my bet is it wouldn't be allowed happen, however.

PS: I hold a medium term small bet in VOG too HS ( now extremely small obviously ) VOG was an extraordinarily badly run company for such a long time as witnessed by the extent they let that debt accumulate so much in first place ...and a multitude other things besides.. drilling fiascos etc.. I believe this is/will be an extremely well run company by comparison .. and while I get you high level analogy comparison I think it's an apples and pears comparison in practice.

Generally, maybe new management can indeed save VOG, and it wouldn't surprise me f they do one way or other, but the fact I averaged down here and just wrote off my VOG bet summarizes my views on one versus the other in a nutshell.. and much chance involved in this game whatever I FULLY understand.. and everyone places bets they see fit.. etc.. ( and I do of course get that VOG only a small punt bet of yours and TXP etc are your big bets.)