RE: In18 Dec 2023 11:26
5 Dec - Funded even on current run rates – The receipt of the R&D tax credit is good news and helps bolster the cash balance before the conclusion of the IP Infringement case with Maxwell/Tesla, which is set for hearing from 11-15 December. Whilst we still anticipate a positive outcome, based on the historically successful defence of the same IP infringement with AVX, we estimate that CAX-XX is funded through FY24E without an IP infringement settlement or award, even on a downside scenario. As previously reported, we estimate a downside revenue scenario for FY24E based on the revenue run rate for the first four months of the year is around A$5m. Using our current modelling of costs, this would imply a potential EBITDA loss for the full year of cA$1.5m, which would be covered by a cash balance of A$0.5m four months into FY24E (as per the AGM statement) plus the net A$1m R&D rebate announced today, although additional legals costs (potentially in the range of A$200-250k) will make this cash position tighter. However, we believe revenue expectations by the new management will likely be set between this downside scenario (A$5m) and our current expectations (A$7m), with this to be established after the completion of the CEO’s sales pipeline analysis which is due soon. Looking further ahead, we see the signing of the JV with Ionic a positive indicator that its materials are helping achieve a material uplift in product performance and that, following a period of supply chain qualification and product testing, new products under this JV could be with customers in CY25. We iterate our view that the turnaround at CAP-XX is showing its first green shoots, the company looks funded through FY24E