RE: Court case result16 Dec 2023 06:46
Cavendish
CAP-XX* Tax rebate received and JV signed CAP-XX has announced the Australian Taxation Office has approved the FY23 R&D grant and associated rebate of A$2.1m. The net proceeds of A$1.0m, after repaying the principal and interest associated with the revolving line of credit drawdown, were received by CAP-XX last week. - Ionic JV signed – CAP-XX has announced it has formally signed a JV vehicle and shareholders agreement with Ionic Industries Ltd for the exclusive commercialisation of Ionic's reduced graphene oxide technology to increase electrode density in supercapacitors. The final terms of this are consistent with the original term sheet of the JV announced on 4 May 2023. - Distribution strategy progressing – CAP-XX has also announced its new distribution strategy continues to progress, with the appointment of a further European distributor, in addition to one in India and two in South Africa. New sales and application opportunities have already been identified by these distributors and purchase orders are anticipated to be received in the coming weeks. The Company is also in the final stages of negotiation with additional distributors and sales representatives and these appointments will be announced once the terms are agreed. - Funded even on current run rates – The receipt of the R&D tax credit is good news and helps bolster the cash balance before the conclusion of the IP Infringement case with Maxwell/Tesla, which is set for hearing from 11-15 December. Whilst we still anticipate a positive outcome, based on the historically successful defence of the same IP infringement with AVX, we estimate that CAX-XX is funded through FY24E without an IP infringement settlement or award, even on a downside scenario. As previously reported, we estimate a downside revenue scenario for FY24E based on the revenue run rate for the first four months of the year is around A$5m. Using our current modelling of costs, this would imply a potential EBITDA loss for the full year of cA$1.5m, which would be covered by a cash balance of A$0.5m four months into FY24E (as per the AGM statement) plus the net A$1m R&D rebate announced today, although additional legals costs (potentially in the range of A$200-250k) will make this cash position tighter. However, we believe revenue expectations by the new management will likely be set between this downside scenario (A$5m) and our current expectations (A$7m), with this to be established after the completion of the CEO’s sales pipeline analysis which is due soon. Looking further ahead, we see the signing of the JV with Ionic a positive indicator.