RE: "LONDON'S JUNIOR MKT NEEDS TO SHARPEN UP ITS A I M."-Times of London, Sat 4.5.245 May 2024 09:59
-----------A I M ------& JUNIOR EXPLORERS.
Let me enlighten if folks are NOT aware. It has now come to the attention of the TIMES OF LONDON that AIM is not in a state of ...[fill in the blanks]. These are the observations:
[1] There is NOT much volume on many AIM stocks except the few. One can see the DAILY VOL movers and some are down or up. RRR is also affected by lack of volume.
[2] So, who are the volume movers? One can see that also from the DATA every day. In the UK AIM market, the vol movers do NOT capture the attention of pi's for long ie weeks, months. Stale bulls then sell per theory. So, unless there are NEW bulls, the stock drifts.
[3] JUNIOR EXPLORERS on AIM. Lets PLAY RUNNING a Junior Explorer: [a] PAUL JOHNSON said it takes £400-800,000 to start an AIM co and some £300k-£400k a year to run an AIM co as the fees are quite high. Hence, Paul said Aquis is cheaper to run. FACT: For this reason, many co's have LEFT AIM - Charles has done an article on the no leaving. Paul has also tweeted how he thinks this problem can be resolved. If I read correctly from the Times, then CHEAP MONEY is also a point to be taken in and rates are high.
[b] OK, we have a SHELL ie a new AIM junior explorer. One starts looking for a project. A/c to the stats from S & P Global for the last 10-12 years, only about 10 co's made a decent copper discovery and some in the lower quartile of 2mt are NOT Tier 1 discoveries. [c] Even if a co finds a TIER 1 discovery, a major may NOT buy the project. Why? The Mining Industry commissioned a report and they were told to JV with juniors but not enter bidding wars etc. [d] So, if it is a Tier 1 or 2 discovery, then is the commodity in SUPPLY DEFICIT? Why? Unless it is in supply deficit, it is unlikely prices are high enough to obtain funding to build given it costs millions and Tier 1 builds are into the BILLION/S. [e] Mediocre discoveries - unless one can find the £50-£100m, then the project will be moth-balled until things turn up ie plentiful $$$ [f] All AIM junior explorers will be aware BY now and hence, the cheapest is running a small gold operation and better still, to pick up a project from artisanal miners knowing very well that grades have to be HIGHER than norm ie not 0.5% region if a bigger mine. [g] So, many legacy projects are sitting there in a co's portfolio but nothing can be done WITHOUT MONEY to develop etc.[h] It is FACT that all the easy high grade, surface deposit are now NO LONGER PLENTIFUL and the industry is aware deposits are MUCH deeper. To drill 1 deep hole per Kobold is $1m. 1 hole is not sufficient to prove a discovery either. [i] Yesterday was Buffet's AGM so some journo's and fund mgr quoted what Munger said ie ONE ONLY GETS 4-5 OPPORTUNITIES. Yes, that is true . Why? Few come round. [j] Are there exceptions? Yes, if it is a TIER 1 potential with good grades, surface, then MONEY is available from the market ie they ring the co to ask if the co wanted money. [k] RRR is n