Member Info for NewKOTB

You can forget year high's / low's as they are a meaningless comparison since we completed the recent WD $11.2bn deal.

Our MCap is current ~$5.3bn and even with the debt taken on from WD deal of ~$4.5bn we are valued at significantly less than the WD deal itself. Remember that consideration as part of the deal for HBR shares were valued at 360p/s, that's currently +30% off today's SP. We are deeply discounted imo due the market not having any real figures to go off until the trading update in Jan. So until then make the most of the discount on offer.

aimo & dyor

That's better, gap now closed .

Not sure why we gapped up this morning ..... bloody gaps !!!

Due to ME confit we had queues at petrol stations in the 70's. Be ironic if, at the time of the budget when RR kills off investment for good in the NS we then have a prolonged supply issue leading to blackouts, hyper inflation whilst our balance of payment balloons due to the high cost of imports and unemployment drain on the state escalates until the UK goes into recession and UK PLC loses its AAA rating. Be very difficult to come back from that in the life of this government and we think Liz Truss & Kwasi Kwarteng managed it badly !

The ME conflict should be an excellent opportunity for RR to hold fire on further changes until a suitable fiscal regime replaces this joke of a WFT / EPL. However, being as stupid as stupid can be she will no doubt point to the recent rising Brent and gas prices and the enormous and extraordinary profits still being made by those dirty polluting anti-green O&G companies to justify her decision.

What gets me is a review of the fiscal regime will begin early next year, why upset the apple cart for a few months of additional taxes. The damage will be done this month and unfortunately everyone outside of the industry and unions can't see what's wrong with even higher taxation.

aimo & dyor

Looking to break and hold ~6.9p by YE, that's without solid news, that said, solid news could move us absolutely anywhere.

aimo & dyor

Of course we have extraordinary profits (lol), that's why lots of NS Players will be reporting losses due to HMRC tax bills.

https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-scotsman/20241004/282196541378010

Even Ineos reporting losses now, £280m.

https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-daily-telegraph/20241004/282222311181177/textview

Now remind me, how much tax do you pay on losses ?

aimo & dyor

NAV,

"perhaps HBR management will look to streamline some of the operations that they dont think of as core assets?"

Like the UK's North Sea !! Now that would be a massive two fingers to UKGov and HMRC.

Realistically you are correct, although I would expect them to at least make a go of these assets before committing to their sale.

aimo & dyor

Given the way ENOG SP is being hammered today, for pure strategic reasons, they need to make Morocco work one way or another.

AIMO & DYOR

Clearly aimed at the impact & consequences on employment together with associated family lives and livelihood that Ed'less Ed and RR will destroy unless a massive 'U' turn occurs.

aimo & dyor

Megla,

The effective tax rate for H124 was 26%.

"The Treasury is reconsidering parts of Labour’s manifesto plan to toughen up the abolition of non-domicile tax status.This is on account of concerns over how much money will be raised, should wealthy foreigners simply leave the UK."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c04pe3653k7o

So the reason is "concerns over how much money will be raised", maybe they should look at the NS is the same way.

aimo & dyor

Because the longer Mercuria wait the less FCF / tax losses they can benefit from which are both critical and finite. As you say, there is a certain figure atm that NAV sit's around, an offer 170-190 may just get get us. The risk for Mercuria, that increases daily is Serica complete a deal of our own, as I said, that may well be the end of Mercuria's interest. We already know, even with worst case budget, that FCF over the next 2 - 3 years would return Mercuria's net capital and in effect, get SQZ for as good as, free !! Synergies for Mercuria would add the the equation, example, setting hedging at favourably low levels from which Mercuria trading arm benefit, SQZ pay less UK tax, tax losses life get extended too while Mercuria reap the rewards and tax benefits as an non-UK company. Mercuria are one of the top 5 indi energy traders, worldwide.

aimo & dyor

Mercuria, get the deal done, what are you waiting for ?

Once SQZ do an accretive deal then the price goes up and any deal will be off the table, now is the time to strike, then complete an accretive deal to the benefit of Mercuria post t/o. Don't understand the delay, unless our board are holding out for more or our own deal is near !

aimo & dyor

Do Saudi's short, of course they do & make a mint with one vague comment too.

----------------------

Crude slumps on Saudi Arabia report

Oil prices fell Thursday following a report that top exporter Saudi Arabia was set to discard its lofty crude price target as it looks at expanding production.

By 03:05 ET, the Brent contract dropped 2.3% to $71.25 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures (WTI) traded 2.4% lower at $68.05 per barrel.

The Financial Times reported earlier Thursday that Saudi Arabia, the world's second-largest oil producer, is preparing to abandon its UNOFFICAL(my bold) price target of $100 a barrel for crude as it prepares to increase output.

Additionally, supply from Libya could return to the global markets after reports said that delegates from the country’s east and west factions had agreed over the process of appointing a new central bank governor - a move that is expected to resolve a crisis that has taken at least 1 million barrels per day of production offline.

This talk of additional supply meant that the market largely shrugged off the Energy Information Administration reporting that U.S. oil inventories fell more-than-expected across the board last week.

Plus, the UK, US and allies call for 21-day ceasefire !!! As if Israel will do that.

Starmer went on about 'energy security' too. Imagine UK without the Langeled pipeline due to attack, even GCHQ would probably eventually need candles ! Build candle factories first, not solar & wind farms as they would be more use.

Pete,

Absolutely agree, timelines slip even in the best of economic environment, beginning from a standing start they would do well to have anything near a functioning Energy supply to take up the slack of the NS in 5-7 years. Lets first see how he does with taking the railways under Labours wing, I'm sure strikes will then be a thing of the past, service improvements and lower costs, NOT !!

"just all hot air!!", at least that's a start, warm air vented heating... lol

Thing is, somehow he's got everybody ( the electorate) buying in and believing the guff, all going to end in tears and not tears of happiness.

UK will become reliant upon Qatar, US and Norway for nearly all its supply, should Harris win there will be less imports from US that's for sure as they will need all home production themselves. Where will that leave the UK, in the dark, quite literally.

aimo & dyor

"Squeaky bum time..." not if you use a good quality lubrication oil, I would suggest something other than Castrol GTX though !

Zanaga will do what it has to do, timelines are but a concept for those who watch their watch !

aimo & dyor

Speeches are easy, delivering is the challenge that challenge requires cash, killing off the NS is not aligned to this approach.

It will take years and years for GB Energy to even begin to deliver real change, by then the NS will be dead in the water, literally !!

Starmer also mentioned 'free' energy once more, I think the less educated voters think that means reduced bills, lol !!

The speech sounded like an election battle one to me, loads of promise but very little substance.

aimo & dyor

Never ceases to amaze me how the market completes big trades at the mid-point time & time again, in this case to 4 decimal places, unless it was a share swap / transfer of course !

aimo & dyor