Member Info for NewKOTB

Oh, to add, should a t/o happen by Mercuria, watch, as if by magic, SQZ suddenly find a hum-dinger of an overseas deal. This hum-dinger may well press Mercuria into action sooner than later. We all know a deal takes usually 12- 15 months to announce, so could easily be working on one now.

I've stated before, without this hum-dinger transformational deal SQZ will always be open to T/O, particularly from PE outfit, however as Mercuria have the controlling vote in such matters anyone else other than Mercuria would in reality be a nonstarter, the TW deal made sure of that !!

aimo & dyor

"I think the headline rate of tax will be increased to 78% but ALL allowances will be completely unchanged."

If that is the case, which I too agree with, Labour, however will state CA to be reviewed in the Spring along with fiscal rules for NS. Should that be the case, I have no doubt Mercuria will make a bid for us, may even be before Budget. There will be no jobs losses at mgt / board level as there has already been a clean sweep, out with the old in with the new so can't see them rejecting an approach by Mercuria. Sold to us PI's as the best deal you are going to get (at least for the next 5 years). The relentless downward pressure (aided by macro/micro events falling in their favour) has been managed for the past two years to this end.

TBH, Reluctantly I would take ~164p/s as it stands.

aimo & dyor

In two weeks time Mercuria could take us private for next to nothing.

Effective net cost to Mercuria would be ~£360m for a takeout of ~164p/s, at 40% premium.

Given the FCF being generated, payback could be in under two years. As the saying goes, no brainer !

aimo & dyor

"warned it may move into ‘run-down’ mode..."

With such a direct statement of intent by CC, SQZ must have a deal near to conclusion, otherwise why call their bluff. Alternatively, we could have nothing on the table and this is last ditch attempt to scare RR into a U-turn. Hopefully it's the former.

aimo & dyor

"Rubislaw..", yes, very apt ! (lol)

Wowww, p19 even Red Ed & RR could see the error of their ways with this single graph.

Thanks to NQM over on SQZ board :

--------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is OEUK's analysis of the impact Labour's proposed changes will have on the economy. I am pleased to see the comparison between the UK and Norway made clear, so clear that any idiot should be able to see the folly of the Labour proposals.

aimo

https://oeuk.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/OEUK-Impact-of-UKCS-Fiscal-Policy-on-UK-Economic-Growth-Autumn-2024-Analysis.pdf.pdf

"Harbour on Tuesday completed an $11.2bn takeover of Wintershall Dea’s ......"

Today's HBR Current MCap $6.3bn with debt of $4.5bn = $10.8bn , in other words the 'OLD' HBR of yesterday was worthless. Pretty much says it all as far as how the market views NS producers .... Joke, it is certainly not !

aimo & dyor

"Harbour on Tuesday completed an $11.2bn takeover of Wintershall Dea’s ......"

Today's Current MCap $6.3bn with debt of $4.5bn = $10.8bn , in other words the 'OLD' HBR was worthless.

aimo & dyor

TS,

You will probably get the interim circa ~9p then whatever Mercuria wants to pay for us.

aimo & dyor

Absolutely staggering where HBR are today vs Serica given HBR's relatively meager beginnings back in 2017, which btw were on a par with Serica at the time. All about mgt making the right calls, we didn't kick on from BKR where as HBR did from their Shell deal.

https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/osrhxiso/harbour-energy-plc-completion-of-acquisition-investor-presentation-030924.pdf

aimo & dyor

"The average gain works out at between 3.5 times and 4.2 times. that gives a target range of between 16p and 19.3p from the July low of 4.6p. .."

Yep, agree, ~18.45p looks a reasonable target atm but first we need to break and hold ~6.3p.

Momentum, momentum and momentum needed, today will be a key test too.

aimo & dyor

Probably the best way to get across how dire our situation is, all the better for having a captive audience, quite literally. Well done Serica for organising the event. No way will the delegation leave Bruce without being schooled in Labour's (EPL) failures and hopefully a plan going forward. Unions are the key !

aimo & dyor

On edge of a mini technical breakout since early July and about time too, momentum needs to be maintained.

aimo & dyor

It's starting to get out in the mainstream press, pressure needs to ramp-up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx287xq91e5o

"OEUK said that while it would mean a 'very short-term' boost to Treasury tax revenues, that would soon be thrown into reverse – and end up leaving the public purse £12billion worse off...... meaning it would ultimately collect £12billion less in taxes cumulatively over the five-year period."

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13802535/Labours-North-Sea-raid-deliver-13bn-hit-economy.html

Mommur,

"In addition, Mercuria has agreed not to acquire any additional shares in Serica.."

As we all know, that doesn't stop a 3rd party 'aiding' Mercuria in achieving their objective should they so wish.

aimo & dyor

Tony,

Way too much has happened since Dec 22 when for some perplexing reason and under even more mystifying deal terms SQZ decided to T/O Tailwind, prior to that check out the farcical events during the summer of 2022 with AA and Kistos. Many voted against the TW deal and at the time I personally called it a Trojan Horse deal and from where we are sat now, I stand by that, next few months will either confirm my suspicions or hopefully prove me wrong.

Light reading :

https://www.serica-energy.com/downloads/reports/Shareholder%20Circular%20-%209%20January%202023.pdf

On a positive note, given the SP slide and position of the company, now would not be a bad time to consider SQZ, putting aside 30th October of course.

atb

aimo & dyor

Mercuria will want the cash, so 9p interim is nailed on imo. Although as Sasa pointed out, the interim results are somewhat earlier than the previous few years, by association, probably Ex-Div too, which is interesting, maybe to give Mercuria a trouble free window in which to operate post lock-up... !!!

Could be looking to go sub 110p after which Mercuria will show their hand, or by some miracle we complete a transformational oversea acquisition first, then all is well once more.

aimo & dyor

So we are now seeing the beginning of the domino effect of WFT(EPL) and once they start to fall there will be no stopping it.

UK ‘committing suicide economically’ over North Sea policies :

https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-press-and-journal-aberdeen-and-aberdeenshire/20240830/282080577185935

aimo & dyor