Member Info for NewKOTB

Pack attack by those holding shorts today, on a day without news, will probably see bounce at some point during the day tomorrow. FTSE was on fire today, majority of stocks up and those that were down, were no where near ABDN. Top performing faller of FTSE250. Climb back to ~180p over the coming weeks.

aimo & dyor

Just to clarify, previous post was a tongue in cheek pop at Labour's approach to NS taxation, although I wouldn't put anything as being out of bounds with these clowns.

As for dividends, I had mine paid last week without an issue.

RR snuck an undisclosed clause into her speech last week alongside the secretly added additional +3% EPL and extension to 2030, that all dividends are now collected at source from all NS O&G companies and paid directly into HMRC coffers.

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Suggest you contact your provider for the answer to the whereabouts of your dividends.

We need Ashley Kelty to be our flag waver by the sound it, he tells it as it is where as the likes of Serica et al, tiptoe around the real impact of this madness.

aimo & dyor

No, we are not talking about potatoes but the drop off in drilling…. Anyone care to guess why !!

As of 26 July, Westwood Global Energy reports that there are no exploration or appraisal wells active on the UKCS.

Only one well has completed during 2024, with the 21/3d-9, Z, Y Leverett appraisal well which spudded in 2023. No well programmes have spudded in 2024 to date.

The Valaris 123 jack-up mobilised from the Erskine field on 21 July and reached the Shell-operated 48/8b-3 Selene well location…

"Under the terms of the agreement signed in June 2023, AD Ports Group will have the exclusive right to invest in the development, operation, management and maintenance of the “New East Mole Port” that will handle containers, general cargo, break-bulk and other types of cargo. The Agreement runs for thirty years from the date of signing and AD Ports Group shall have the right to further extend it for a further period of twenty (20) years on the same terms and conditions.

AD Ports Group will invest more than US$ 500 million over the life of the concession, with around US$ 220 million allocated for phase 1, which is expected to be completed over the next 30 months..."

British tech tycoon: I only got justice because I'm rich ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4ng14j5vqpo

Brent / WTI / NBP all up ~5% last 24 hours, following yesterday decent rise off back of ME tensions, HBR today for no known reason give back all yesterdays gains and more. Guess there must be a lot of big buyers wanting in circa 300p/s awaiting deal completion.

aimo & dyor

Confirmation that Andrew Benbow is now our Group Investor Relations Manager as detailed in Total Voting Rights RNS.

One point worth mentioning is any BP deal in the style of BKR would require minimal initial consideration due to its structure and be instantly accretive, hence still leave Serica with a significant war chest for an overseas deal too.

Have your cake and eat it !

aimo & dyor

Given Viaro is to take full ownership of Shell and Exxon Southern North Sea assets, is this the time for BP to end their relationship with UKCS too, esp in todays fiscal environment that's unlikely to improve for another ~6 years, BKR Mk2 maybe (an idea I have floated before). I would back such a move even though it's still NS orientated, as come end of EPL 2030, SQZ would have then just acquired 100% of the said assets, hence begin reaping full rewards. Is this the time for Robert Lawson to show his worth and BP exiting NS would send a message to HMG too. BP have NS 2P's of circa ~150mmboe.

https://www.bp.com/en_gb/united-kingdom/home/where-we-operate/north-sea/north-sea-portfolio.html

Serica need to do a transformational deal soon as I guess I'm not the only one worried about SQZ not reaching its potential due to 'interference' from Mercuria. A transformational deal will bring in many buyers that are waiting for such a move, without it there is always the underlying concern that Mercuria will takeout Serica at a bargain basement price.

For newbies worth looking at how transformational the BKR deal was in it's structure, the model then would work just as well today imo :

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SQZ/purchase-of-bp-interests-in-bruce-keith-and-rhum-f2srl1d1yrpll24.html

aimo & dyor

Thanks Flexmw,

Deal estimated at £390m for 28kboepd and 2P of 58 MMboe acquired by PE outfit Viaro (aka RockRose). It's clear PE see value in UKCS with this deal valuing 2P bbl at circa $8.65, read through for SQZ 2P's would mean circa £840m, interesting. So this adds even more reason for Mercuria to move on us once their lockup has ended come end of September with our current MCap as it is.

aimo & dyor

All falling into Mercuira's lap nicely. By the EoY we will be private after which Serica will magically find a blockbuster of a deal overseas that Mercuira help bankroll. Once bedded in will relist in US, hence the need for Andrew ‘Benners’ Benbow to run the IPO.

Takeout price for us, depending upon Octobers budget 160-190 imo. Did say sub 120 was on its way, looking likely we will remain at 120-135 until November now after which, god only knows !!!

Our heavyweight BoD & Mgt are not here for a tiny ~£400m MCap AIM company, they are here for bigger and much more glorious rewards. Taking SQZ's CoH and Mercuria's holding into account they would only need to cough up as little as ~£250m to buy Serica. With FCF estimated over the next 3 years to be ~£615m (Auctus Advisors) you can see what a no brainer this is for Mercuria. Oh, btw once we become Swiss owned how much tax do you think HMRC will be collecting.

aimo & dyor

"Bp is not significantly affected by the EPL. We produce relatively little in the UK."

Unfortunately Labour have used BP / Shell as a political yardstick to beat the small UKCS producer, many of whom may well go to the wall as field CoP forced closer and decomm's rules the day.

NQM, Mitch resigned from Offshore Energies UK last month so there is a glimmer of hope now.

Mitch's parting deal, yet another s*its&ow that's turning out to be !!

SQZ should move to US listing instantly along with HBR et al, even US Corporate Tax Rate is almost half ours.

For sure NS players will never see real value for their assets now so will be picked off by PE who will suck the cash and run down the fields with minimal investment. Come 2030 when this EPL 'ends' there will be no NS O&G industry to speak of, destroyed without any outcry by anyone that matters. Unbelievable madness !!

aimo & dyor

They have stated, "There are no plans to change the availability of capital allowances in the permanent regime..."

At least it's 'just' the investment allowance of the EPL portion and not capital investment. Why gets me is they still use the excuse "extraordinary profits of oil and gas companies", they ceased long ago added to which they have tagged on another 1 year extension too, but don't worry as "After a period of change, the government also recognises the importance of providing the oil and gas industry with long-term certainty on taxation. The government will therefore work with the industry and others to develop and implement a successor regime for responding to price shocks after the Energy Profits Levy ceases." wtf !!! Sub 120 on its way.